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pay off? pay off?

11-16-2007 , 06:35 AM
live 30 game.
BB here is an exceptional player. we have a long history. utg is a spazz, but knows he is in treacherous waters vs. me and the BB.

utg raises, folds to me in the hijack and i 3bet A K folds to BB who calls, utg calls.

flop 3 ways for 9.67SB
J9 9
bb checks, utg donks, i call, bb calls.

turn 3 ways for 6.3BB: T
BB checks, utg bets, I call, BB calls.

River 3 ways for 9.3BB: K
BB donks, utg mutters and folds, I...........
pay off? Quote
11-16-2007 , 06:40 AM
pay the man. He's earned it.
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11-16-2007 , 06:43 AM
Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.
pay off? Quote
11-16-2007 , 06:45 AM
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Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.
he cant have KQ given his turn line.
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11-16-2007 , 06:49 AM
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Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.



he cant have KQ given his turn line.
Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.
pay off? Quote
11-16-2007 , 06:51 AM
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Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.



he cant have KQ given his turn line.
Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.
but how can he ever have that here?
pay off? Quote
11-16-2007 , 06:54 AM
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Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.



he cant have KQ given his turn line.
Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.
but how can he ever have that here?
Well a loose flop peel w/ Qs and he is closing the action. The turn is close though. I am a bit befuddled by some good live players ranges in this spot pf though.
pay off? Quote
11-16-2007 , 06:55 AM
or AQc, which makes more sense.
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11-16-2007 , 06:56 AM
actually I take back my previous response. Fold. Ain't nothing that makes sense that you beat. Possible chop, but very unlikely.
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11-16-2007 , 06:57 AM
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Wow. This spot sucks. I honestly would love to see what he has here though I am guessing it is AxQs or KQs. At best you are hoping for a chop with a slightly passive AK. Villain knows he is never folding utg out with a 4bet pf and he is oop against your 3bet range so that could be a possibility.



he cant have KQ given his turn line.
Oh yeah thought KQ nut straight came in on river. yeah I want to see AQ.
but how can he ever have that here?
Well a loose flop peel w/ Qs and he is closing the action. The turn is close though. I am a bit befuddled by some good live players ranges in this spot pf though.
thing is, when i just call that flop, i likely have exactly AK.
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11-16-2007 , 06:59 AM
Yeah I dont think we win here ever, but the curiosity would kill me. Whatever, I am sure if it is a friend they will just tell you later.
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11-16-2007 , 08:11 AM
KTs, QTs, and AQo all sound about right. {hands that you beat} don't.
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11-16-2007 , 08:22 AM
QT is the only hand i can really put him on... i guess i have to see it... call.
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11-16-2007 , 08:33 AM
Schneids always has you beat here. Tell him to go play 1k/2k and that'll you'll buy more action than normal so that'll he'll leave. +EV in so many ways.

You are ahead of exactly AK here which he is always 4-betting here preflop because it would be more fun to get HU with you. He is not bluffing into a bad player when it also looks like that you may also have AQ here.

Fold.
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11-16-2007 , 09:07 AM
You beat a bluffing 88 but the way you played your hand postflop should make it pretty obvious you have exactly AK or AQ so an 88 shouldn't ever be trying to bluff you (let alone the UTG player as well) so from that logically it should become a fold because AQ is much more likely than AK (in his hand range) both mathematically and due to the fact he didn't 4 bet preflop, so basically you're calling for a chop best case.
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11-16-2007 , 09:16 AM
The only thing u beat is Asxs
Oh wait...
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11-16-2007 , 09:19 AM
Raise the damn flop.
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11-16-2007 , 09:23 AM
so why did you call the flop instead of raising?
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11-16-2007 , 09:48 AM
Raising the flop here is terrible.

There are no outs we can clear up as BB is never folding KJ/AJ/QT here. The only hands better hands that we get to fold, TT/88, are already beat by the UTGs range. The other hands that we fold suffer from domination against our hand(AQ/AT/KQ) that we want to 1. Pad our flush draw equity for us and 2. Pay off if we spike an Ace, King or flush.

Also this flop gets 3-bet alot, meaning our equity is poor because villain has a redraw even if we hit our flush or pair.

Edit: I spoke with CSC and I don't think a flop raise is as bad as I originally make it out to be depending on just how spazzy UTG is. I still feel his range is strongly weighted towards Js, 9s, and other pairs he's never folding. If you assume those to be correct, a flop raise is terrible.
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11-16-2007 , 10:11 AM
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so why would you raise the flop instead of calling?
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11-16-2007 , 10:12 AM
Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ and it will likely clear up his hand range for us. Also, especially against bad players, it will get checked to us on the turn if we raise. Plus, we have a [censored] of equity with 2 overs and the nut draw.
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11-16-2007 , 10:12 AM
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Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ
huh? why is this a good thing?
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11-16-2007 , 10:19 AM
If we get a free card ever a flop raise is awesome. If BB folds the same hand as us a flop raise is superb. Anything better than out hand is also really good.
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11-16-2007 , 10:28 AM
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Well, a raise might get BB to fold AQ
huh? why is this a good thing?
i don't care what he has, if the BB is schneids i want him out of the hand.
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11-16-2007 , 12:41 PM
He has to have AQ. He has to.
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