QFT

It's when you agree on the size of the cheese grater.

QFT imo. 205 big bets in 45 hours you've almost gotta be doing something wrong. Sorry cat...I could be wrong, but until it happens to me I assume that to be true. After it happens to me, I'll just assume you're not very awesome, like me.

And now I formally feel like an as**ole.

And in closing. Hank, you me come come commerce Sunday night?

not to be a dick but you are in for some very serious and very upsetting surprises.

205BB will happen to you in good live games, more even. It's soooooo much worse live too cuz you just sit there and fold for hours after you lose yet another pot and then drive home feeling like crap.

Just warning you don't omgfreak when you run in to a big downer and feel like you can't do anything right, that stuff can happen to anyone and happens to everyone.

I just used this with my current win rate and StDev (which admittedly might be bs). I ran 10 simulations of 1500 hours and saw exactly 2 down swings of 200 big bets (about 8K) or more. That's two down swings of such a magnitude in 8 years of 35 hour a week play. So....Strictly is right, and I am thusly terrified.

hmm


so 1:4?

Give me 2:1 on you losin 200BB between jan and jan of 09 and 10
prop bet yo

EDIT: again im not trying to sound douchey, propbetting is fun!

I OBV Run goooooooooooooooooooooot

Seat 1: pauly9214 (6781 in chips)
Seat 2: smoker1968 (9027 in chips)
Seat 3: that_pope (2578 in chips)
Seat 4: DanThorpedo (4608 in chips)
Seat 5: fmmxx (2408 in chips)
Seat 6: AmericnEagle (2839 in chips)
Seat 7: HTownKid23 (1795 in chips)
Seat 8: nobody96 (7282 in chips)
DanThorpedo: posts the ante 60
fmmxx: posts the ante 60
AmericnEagle: posts the ante 60
HTownKid23: posts the ante 60
nobody96: posts the ante 60
pauly9214: posts the ante 60
smoker1968: posts the ante 60
that_pope: posts the ante 60
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to pauly9214 [2h]
Dealt to smoker1968 [Th]
Dealt to that_pope [6h 2s 6s]
Dealt to DanThorpedo [Jh]
Dealt to fmmxx [Kd]
Dealt to AmericnEagle [2d]
Dealt to HTownKid23 [4c]
Dealt to nobody96 [Qs]
AmericnEagle: brings in for 90
HTownKid23: calls 90
nobody96: folds
pauly9214: calls 90
smoker1968: folds
that_pope: calls 90
DanThorpedo: folds
fmmxx: raises 210 to 300
AmericnEagle: folds
HTownKid23: calls 210
pauly9214: folds
that_pope: calls 210
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to that_pope [6h 2s 6s] [6d]
Dealt to fmmxx [Kd] [4d]
Dealt to HTownKid23 [4c] [Js]
Pair on board - a double bet is allowed
that_pope: bets 600
fmmxx: calls 600
HTownKid23: raises 600 to 1200
that_pope: calls 600
fmmxx: calls 600
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to that_pope [6h 2s 6s 6d] [5d]
Dealt to fmmxx [Kd 4d] [8c]
Dealt to HTownKid23 [4c Js] [Td]
that_pope: bets 600
fmmxx: calls 600
HTownKid23: calls 235 and is all-in
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to that_pope [6h 2s 6s 6d 5d] [5s]
Dealt to fmmxx [Kd 4d 8c] [Kh]
Dealt to HTownKid23 [4c Js Td] [9s]
that_pope: bets 418 and is all-in
fmmxx: calls 248 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (170) returned to that_pope
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to that_pope [6h 2s 6s 6d 5d 5s] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
fmmxx: shows [Qc Qd Kd 4d 8c Kh 7c] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
that_pope: shows [6h 2s 6s 6d 5d 5s 8d] (a full house, Sixes full of Fives)
that_pope collected 1226 from side pot
HTownKid23: shows [9c Jc 4c Js Td 9s Jd] (a full house, Jacks full of Nines)
HTownKid23 collected 5865 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7091 Main pot 5865. Side pot 1226. | Rake 0

Tonight I played, without a doubt, the worst poker I've played in months.











And I did it at 60/120.













And I won $1,300.

Key hand that sent me straight to the wall to get 3 empty racks so I would stop myself from butchering yet another hand:

Folded to me in CO and I raise JTo. A guy who has 3-bet me every single time I've opened it seems, 3-bets me again. I decide I'm winning this pot so f*ck him.

Flop comes AT5 and I decide he has 99 so I c/r. He calls, so I decide he has QQ and I'm gonna get him off it. Turn is a K. I bet, he calls. River Q. I bet, he cries and calls. AQs no good sir.

Deal me out, please.

make it happen! cdc and i will be at commerce monday through whenever we get tired of living in the casino

Wow.

I just used that tool using my w/r and sd (2.86/27). It shows at least one 80K breakeven stretch, & one 700+ downswing. Strangely, it made me want to play.

I wish I needed a stat tool to tell me how long it's possible to play breakeven/barely winning poker.

"...but the truth is there is only the hand you are playing."

I'll consider it. And we'd need some sort of terms and conditions based on the number of hours I'd have to play. By then I'd like to be playing a good bit of 40, and obviously that changes things drastically.

OK seriously who wants to drive down to Commerce Monday? Are you guys flying?

Ooooh ooooooh oooooh!

Forgot one of the most magnificent hands ever from last night at HP. Sort of tight guy thats not nearly tight enough raises UTG+1. I should note that he's already shown cracked pocket aces twice tonight and I think kings as well. Only caller is the big blind who is very very bad at poker. Flop is two nines and a brick. BB checks, PFR bets, BB calls. Turn is a third nine and action is the same. River goes check check. PFR shows down AA and BB shows K9.

Yay!

It would have been simpler for BB to bet/3-bet the flop and then just turn his hand face up while the dealer was putting the turn card out. Also would have been funnier and he'd have made just as much money.

must be nice to run like god on a scooter

The only way to actually do this fairly, unfortunately, is for me to be constantly aware of my exact maximum winnings at any time and my current stack size (doing it only on session lines gives me a huge advantage, as I could just play for 20 hours to try to get above the minimum number).

Also, since I am a tool, I ran the numbers myself assuming my results for an hour are Gaussian, and have determined that my chance of a 200 big bet down swing in the next 1500 hours is about 35%. So 2:1...shockingly fair for a number you pulled out of your butt. I don't think the "Gaussian" thing holds though....

If anyone is interested....

int twoHundoLosers = 0;

for (int k = 0; k <10000; k++){

double totalWinnings = 0.0;
double stDev = 456.71;
double mean = 57.75;
int hours = 1500;
Random r = new Random();
double maxWinnings = 0;
double maxLoss = 0;

for (int i = 0; i < hours; i++) {
double seed = r.nextGaussian();
double winnings = seed*stDev + mean;
totalWinnings = totalWinnings + winnings;

if (totalWinnings > maxWinnings) {
maxWinnings = totalWinnings;
} else {
double currentSwong = maxWinnings - totalWinnings;
if (currentSwong > maxLoss) {
maxLoss = currentSwong;
}
}

//System.out.println("Session Winnings = " + winnings);
//System.out.println("Total Winnings = " + totalWinnings);
//System.out.println("Max Loss = " + maxLoss);
//System.out.println("");
}
if (maxLoss > 8000) {
twoHundoLosers++;
}

}

System.out.println(twoHundoLosers);

i didnt pull it out of my butt if the odds are 1 in for and you're laying it at one in three i figured that'd be good for you since you have an edge.

Did someone say Roadtrip? That could be fun.

Browsing through the "upcoming releases" section of online book site shows almost no new books upcoming. But I ran into two titles I was not previously even aware of:

Holdem on the Come by Slotboom
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Hol...9781904468233/

Limit Holdem by Borer
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Lim...9781904468370/

Anyone read, or even looked at in the store and put back?

Obviously having a high winrate and low standard deviation is the key.

Decrease your winrate by 10% and increase the StDev by 10% and then run those simulations again!

Please let use know how many 200 BB downswings you see.