Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
I like the hand as played and I'd call the river.
A few things to note:
a) We beat bluffs.
b) We don't beat any value hands.
a+b = thus even if our opponent plays perfect poker, our call is breakeven. Any deviation from perfect poker will result in an ev gain greater than or equal to zero for our strategy. If he never bluffs, then calling this hand is -ev; yet this loss of value is compensated by the ev gained when he checks. If he bluffs too much, then folding this hand comes with an opportunity cost which equals a loss of ev; yet this loss of ev is compensated by the ev gained by our other bluffcatchers, which are now more profitable.
Also of note is that there is likely a significant hole in this opponent's strategy due to the flop donk; if and when this opponent checks, we may bet for value more often exploitively on the margins, and we may also bluff more often exploitively on the margins due to our now expanded value range; we may also raise more frequently preflop on the button due to this ev gain of our marginal preflop hands, which should be folded vs better opponents that don't exhibit this tendency, which loses flop check raising value, which nets a gain of ev for the button's strategy.
Thanks for this and +1.
Your detailed explanations are the absolute best since it makes so much sense logically.
For me, in a 3 handed game, I don't mind taking what may mathematically be a -EV play of calling on the river.
Specifically because in a 3 handed game, it's critical to have an idea of what hand range a LAG villain is donking Flop, Turn, River with to potentially exploit villain in the future in the 3 handed game.
For me calling flop and turn as HERO is standard and any thing else I would classify as fancy play syndrome or subpar at best.