I kind of misstated that last sentence. The 72% is only if he bets all Qx on the turn.

However, if we assume he has 100% preflop range and only bets the turn and river with a pair or better (22+, 2x, 4x, 5x), we still have 68.4% equity with AQ. That is pretty much the worst case for us because we are assuming he never bets Ax on the turn and bet/calls it on the river and we are also assuming he never bets Qx on the turn. It's still a raise without those things since we have over 66% equity, but him doing either makes it an even easier raise.

Thanks guys.

Jesus Christ why all the analysis? Tptk huhu is the ****ing nuts!

couldn't get any action >8/16 on swc lately

beating up on overaggressive no limit players is fun

cashed out now busto

Are these stakes in Bitcoin? Or denominated in another way? Curious.

1k chips = 1 bitcoin.

get on bovada and seals sir. you know the way

Seals has the best comps that I've come across. Table starter rakeback, accumulative rakeback based on krill, and krillrolls that you can qualify for that run at least once a week.

Plus, I don't think they allow tracking software.

Only problem is that the player pool is small. Only like 150-200 people online at most normal gametimes, and most are just observing.

Hi.

I do not think heads up limit is dead at all.

The main reason is that I have been studying cepheus and in contact a little with the cepheus people and I stink at heads up according to cepheus. You may know me from carbon. Ill be back on once they stop slowpaying people.

A few hands: I feel my cards are irrelevant so will only post cepheus' cards.

Out of position cepheus 3 bets Q6s:

Flop: J33. A bd flush is not available as its the other 3 suits. cepheus bets.

Turn: J33J. cepheus bets.

River: J33JJ. cepheus bets.

i play hand differently on streets 1 and 4 how bout you?

Cepheus is in position with 65o.

After raise he bets flop of 6KA. There is no flush draw the 3 suits are unique.

Turn: 6KA5. cepheus checks it back.

River: 6KA57. cepheus bets.

I disagree with turn how bout you>?

Cepheus is in position and raises KQo

bets flop of 6KA. The flop is a 3 of the same suit and neither of cepheus's card is a match.

turn 6KA9o. bet

river (6KA)9J bet.

hmm . such a crowded board maybe i check turn or river?

Hey LETIGRA,

Obviously we have a decent amount of history against one another, so this comment will be with that in mind. .

First hand:

cepheus prefers a mixed strategy out of position with this hand. Apparently, it three bets 64% of the time and calls 36%. I can't tell you exactly why, but I speculate it's so that cepheus can hit uncoordinated boards w/ his three bets. The boards one would attack a suited connector / Ax type light three bettor would look a lot like boards that hit this hand rather hard (like Q73r).

On this flop, cepheus seems to prefer betting almost its entire range. This makes sense; he has the stronger range of hands and this board doesn't change much regarding preflop hand equity. Plus, you would continue this board w/ a number of hands that might fold turn, and while cepheus would rather you fold your Kx, it's okay with you folding anything w/ 6 live cards to Q6.

Turn, it seems cepheus actually prefers to check Q6ss, but in this case it bets. This is likely a pure GTO consideration; a level 1 thinker would say "This turn changes nothing for my K high, I call", while a level 2 thinker would say "He knows I know this turn changes nothing for my K high...maybe I should fold". And so forth.

River is obvious; you've played this hand like you have nothing up until this point. It's more than likely you both play the board. Cepheus has a near freeroll (probably chopping when called, but wins the entire pot when you fold).

Hand 2:

I can see cepheys possibly xb sometimes w/ this hand as well. In this case he bet.

On the turn, once again, GTO considerations. It has a strong hand, but it really can't three bet bottom 2 pair on this board texture. One tenet of GTO play is that on any card, you should be able to take any action. In this case, it can raise any brick, and with this particular hand, it's not forsaking a ton of immediate value for the sake of balance, especially since a bet from you is highly likely on the river w/ a one pair type hand.

Hand 3:

Now remember when I said I've a good deal of history on you (and yes, you've kind of held over me a bit according to PTR )? This spot was one of your weaker spots when playing. Monotone flop and you have a decent hand. Without a special read, that should be an autobet. Indeed, cepheus bets KQo here 100%. And it makes sense. Yes you could have a weak ace looking to play a small pot out of position. You could also have a 6 w/ a heart, a weaker king, or even a naked heart. And by pure math, if you're call-calling any heart >= 9 for two streets and folding river, then you better be calling w/ pairs weaker than KQo on a brick river. Else you're just folding far too often.

Moreover, if Cepheus isn't betting KQ on this turn, then what does his range look like? Really strong hands (Ax+, two pair, sets, flushes) or air (naked hearts, JT, 87, etc).

But yeah, turn in hand 3 is an absolute, slam dunk, 150%, you-must-be-this bet, and the only times I don't make this bet is when I'm up against a supernit or on some form of pessimistic tilt.

Oh hey dude. Yeah of course I know you. Also if i'm up on you a little maybe player to player variance dont take it personal. And ptr is always messing up my stuff. i'm up 7k this year on merge. not good but okay for small stakes.

i dont take notes on players i just memorize them while at the tables. In your example I would make an abstract yet memorable link to a penguin for any notes. You are really good. A little wild is my note. Some fance play syndrome but that makes sense knowing some of your opinions now on me.

Thanks for your reply. A lot of this went over my head and is too deep for me. My studying is basically playing cepheus straight up then writing down any interesting show downs. SPecifically if he plays any hand different than me on any street ill take the 60 second time bank to write hh down. Then i will study notables while walking on incline treadmill.

On hand 1 Im okay with 3bets sometimes. I went thru a stage on bovada when i 3 bet any two suited 4 or higher out of position headsup

I have problem with river. I feel i am the one free rolling cepheus. it knows i can play the board and call 100% so why bet. It's gonna get punished any time i have a wire except 22. If i have 77 i will raise and he will be forced to eat it.

In hand 2 i dont want to click back any two pair especially bottom two as they get counterfeited so often on river and i need to charge if thats gonna happen. cepheus doesnt have to make it 3 if theres a check raise. again thanks for your reply and i will have to think about your comments for a couple days before i can respond but if you think i should bet 2nd pair top klicker all three streets in hand 3 i should surely bet 2 pair in hand 2. Its tough to make 2 pair. I'm betting. want to know what's more disturbing? Cepheus has done this to me like 10 times in AND out of position.

3) it just seems so aggresive. i know 2nd pair top kicker is a favorite in heads up but on the scariest boards i try to click back once. maybe induce a bluff from a 1 card flush draw brick.

here's one since you replied so quickly to me with so few posts

cepheus is out of position with 33

of course he 3 bets which makes me want to rip my hair out. prolly why he does it.

Obvious flop bet on 725 i call

turn 725Q, there is no flush draw available. it bets.

river 725Q8

check check.

now here i like to check the turn. my thinking is there is 4 bigbets in the pot and if i check call twice i only have to be good 2/8 times. plus i could hit set 5%.

im not good at the query tool but when he bets the turn do you think it is gonna just eat the raise or fold? 3 bets in two streets is a lot to eat on this hand for such a baby wire.

thanks dude hope youre killing it on carbon.

Hello and welcome. It's good to see some new blood around here.

I agree that heads up limit isn't dead, but I'm only on swcpoker so my sample is small. My evidence:

I went ~15 bets on the flop the other day with the dumb end of a straight against an overaggressive opponent. I figured 15 bets was enough and I called down from there. He had middle pair Ace kicker no redraw.

Hey thanks. i'm really not new blood i just learned a lot from books over the years rather than forums etc. I like to think I was something special before black friday haha ( i wasnt)

That's pretty strong evidence sir.

You definitely encountered a bitcoin enthusiast. 100% of them are terrible at heads up limit. I was on first incantation of swc built up krill then got a little down about traffic levels on new site and micons unfortunate news.

Best part of swc is definitely that after rakeback+table starter rakeback you are paying a disturbingly low rake allowing you to basically take on all comers and hopefully yield a high winrate. I love how no cap on bets either. I would always keep raising fast so hopefully the keep clicking reraise and i've seen bitcoin enthusiasts go ten bets and show nothing on river. they think its no limit/your gonna push me off a hand. trust me if I 9bet i got it.

Thats how poker should be. Cant wait till a bitcoin site gets BIG.

Also I really really really like talking about cepheus.

if i'm in the wrong thread let me know.

if posters feel i should not talk about cepheus strategy let me know and i will not post further.

I think it's fine.

the force is strong with this one.

Haha, never personal. Heck, most of the guys on there I actually actively chat with at the tables are the ones who give me problems. And of course the friendly fish. Obviously still think you could barrel turn more, but you were a winner in the circus games for sure.

In Hand 1, I think based on your particular, cautious style, that yes you may be in the freeroll spot. I personally would raise 77 on that turn and expect to get called down by worse frequently (and rarely 3 bet). And as you correctly bring up, if you arrive at the river w/ 77, you're raising for sure. I think for around 90% of HU opponents, though, they have the board.

And remember, Cepheus is not trying to exploit your tendencies. It's playing a tough, GTO-based style that you simply can't beat (because you will make mistakes, you are human after all). Against your typical online goober, you'd never not bet bottom two, because they have all sorts of crap that can call you (weak Aces, Jx, gutshots, they may even call with like 64 totally dead). But Cepheus is assuming you're a competent opponent who won't mindlessly pay off three barrels on this texture (as you should be pretty strong when you check call this flop). So by checking behind, Cepheus often gets 2 bets in anyway (via 2 bets on the river v 1 and 1). In fact, Cepheus checks this hand behind 93% of the time! Moreover, it makes his river raising range both stronger and less polarized if he can include this hand within it, meaning you can't make an exploitative bet/call with a hand like A3 in a spot where his raise is spew-heavy. I know I've run into guys w/ wildly polarized raises from weak ranges, only to turbo call them down w/ A hi or K hi and be good. Against Cepheus, i can't do that because it makes plays like this. Essentially, it's always looking to be able to take any line on any card. A great example of this was live was at the end of the $10k LHE event where Jesse Martin xb Q6 on a QTx flop against Ben Yu (Professor Ben on here) planning to raise turn. On the surface it looks FPS, but keeping in mind hands that WANT to check here (like K8, 55, etc), it means that these hands receive protection from the presence of strong hands.

Once again, maybe stylistically, checking the turn w/ a hand like KQ on AK6-3 board is appropriate for you, as you're reasonably tight (so betting twice on this texture makes any hand worse than an Ace uneasy). But just remember your range when you check behind. If you're checking back hands like A5, KQ, etc, there's not a lot of incentive to bluff (villain should expect to be called quite a lot, and he needs his bluff to work 25% of the time to be profitable when betting into a 3 BB pot), so I've a feeling that when you call the river, you'll be losing a lot (and against an opponent who notices the strength of your xb range, some of your surface snap calls, like a KQ, may not even be profitable). I'd much rather xb the turn w/ a dicier King on this board, like a K5, when I could easily be valuetowning myself against a weakly played Ace. Moreover, I think the mistake most online players make is continuing too far w/ a weak hand that doesn't really stand to improve, making bet-bet-check a better exploitative alternative than bet-check-call if bet into/bet if checked to. For example, if I was playing some of the weaker players at 2-4 (you know a few examples from our games), I would never think of checking the turn w/ KQ, as most of them will not punish me w/ Ax and are so nutted when they do raise, that I can just snap fold. But they'll call me with such crappy hands as 86, 75, weaker Kings, and it'd be criminal to let these hands catch up.


Now, onto 33 hand:

I'm actually shocked Cepheus is so aggro preflop w/ his pocket pairs. I would think it'd be more concerned with its weakness on raggedy boards w/out holding those back a bit. However they stand to have positive value v any opening range, and Cepheus is smart enough to be able to navigate this hand OOP on all sorts of textures to maximization. I'm a human and I can't, so I just call and hope to play a small pot when I don't hit a 3.

Turn is close actually. Remember that with any two non-paired cards, you don't have a pair on this flop 67.5% of the time. Even when you do have a pair, it's occasionally a 2, so Cepheus still leads hands like that. I assume you don't have a 4 bet range (I don't HUHU, unless my opponent is excessively 3 betting, in which I'd adjust by 4 betting premiums and a selection of different hands depending on tendencies postflop).

Surprisingly, Cepheus checks this flop 14% of the time or so. It's somewhat understandable why; this kind of low board texture hits you rather well. So Cepheus should be checking sometimes, rather than just getting itself raised constantly. 33 is likely included as an occasional check so that it's checking things that aren't whiffed overs. Unsurprising that it bets way more than it checks.

Turn, I think once you call flop, is actually somewhat of a trivial bet. As I mentioned before, you'll not have a pair 67.5% of the time. Say you've an open range of 85% of hands (1,127 combos w/ all 78 pocket pairs). You call 100% and Cepheus bets the flop. Let's simplify and assume you never raise this texture (a reasonable strategy). You have 55 pocket pairs on the flop that aren't sets, 9 that are, and the cards on board have only brought your non-pocket pair distribution down to 900 or so. So getting 7:1, you'll be folding maybe 120 combos of hands? So you still don't have a pair a good deal more often than you do, and 33 even beats some pair combos. You obviously know the two primary reasons to bet:

1) To get a better hand to fold (this is never happening on this board against anyone but the granddaddy of all nits)
2) To get a worse hand to call (2x, Ax, Kx, 98).

There's a third one that isn't mentioned because it's often misused, but it's important still
3) To deny people their equity share).

If you peeled this flop w/ a hand like T9, K4, JT, etc, this turn bet presents an ugly spot. You're getting 5:1 on a call and you possibly have the equity to make the call versus your opponent's range of hands (you only have to win 16.7% of the time for the call to be profitable, and maybe less as you're in position). But you could also be dead and be in a nasty RIO spot, so you fold. 33 really doesn't mind getting you to fold JT here, and it really hates giving up a freebie. I think 33 is a solid bet/call against a similarly balanced opponent, and Cepheus agrees (it bets turn 80% of the time and calls a raise 100%).

Now remember, 3 doesn't mean you should just barrel turn all willy nilly w/ KJ so that T9 can't "catch up", as 1 supersedes it. But in general, when you've a close spot, I think you should be betting until given a reason not to (big one being "opponent bluffs too often when checked to").

HAHA! No it's NOT!

I;m just lazy. I think you should be able to make a good cut playing limit holdem by only left clicking. I used to color code people on bovada but dont anymore cause you can no longer color code without taking a note.

I was watching a strong lhe player play once and he took a note on a player. It was a 6m game and he wrote 'limp.' Obviously he wanted to remember that the player opened limped. But how do you forget that? Especially once it happens twice you are not gonna forget it. No need for note. Just remember it. I'm not that smart. But just remember it.

JDR,

thanks for super long reply. Will get back to you in a week. I have to analyze some of the things you said and do not want to reply quickly all willy nilly. haha

One thing I have been thinking about a lot is when cepheus plays little wires so strong on first 3 streets he is building the pot on purpose to give him better odds to make a c/c on the river. like if i just call bb with 33 and board runs out AK75J I prolly ditch the hand to a bet at some point.

but ill get back to you.

here's a fun one from a while back:

dude thinks I'm an overaggressive spewbot. He's right, but I think perhaps he overadjusts by overplaying strong hands and calling down too much. He likes to 3 bet preflop, but once lots of bets start going in on the turn, I have to wonder about TT. Uncapped heads up on carbon:

I raise preflop with T9o, dude calls.

T99r

he check raises, I 3 bet, he calls.

8o

he check raises, I 3 bet, he 4 bets. I have ~16 big bets left. Should I just go to the felt?

I mean how confident are you that he can never have TT? Really all that matters. Sooner or later, you have to question your prior ranges on a player when you start realizing 98 is becoming increasingly unlikely.

At the time, I thought it was worth ~10 bets. He had the 98o.

Hearing stuff like this makes me really wish Merge brought back the "no cap HU" policy.

I also want to know why all these stories seem to end in some dude spewing at you, while whenever I go nutball in a hand because "he can't have that", he has that.

Example (not HU but still):

I open K9s, fish cc sb.

Flop QJx xbc

Turn T he x/r I 3 he 4 I call

River brick I raise/cap and get shown broadway.

I obviously penciled him in for something like bottom set, or the idiot end of the straight, forgetting that passive fish don't just go berserk w/ like a set of 5's on this texture, and that passive fish sometimes do look at AK and cold call with it (I had mentioned in my 3 handed game at 15...15!...that the guy on my immediate left was cold calling AQo vs my opens, and he wasn't even all that passive postflop).

So I guess this brings up an interesting point: How much action needs to go in, on average, before "he can't have that" becomes "he might have that"? Seems like you've settled on 10 bets from prior history, Bob .

Stories that end with me winning are my favorites. I've also lost some big pots, like the time I went a lotta bets with QQ on the KQ8 flop when KK was well within his range. My mistake that time.

As far as deciding how many bets to put in. I consider it like in no limit when you're thinking of how much you think your opponent will call and betting that amount.

Hi,

I feel the only mistake you made was the river cap.

Villian flatted smbl. Thru reverse geometric logic he has not read a book on poker. Even the king yao book that no one actually remembers recommends against it. He also advises to muck JTs smbl 3 handed to a button open. Ha.

A flat in is incorrect no matter what book you read.

No matter how you slice it he does not have a wire. Most the wires by recs get 3 pre especially QQ etc.

He likely flats 2 high cards as a wire moves.

I guess he could have K9s for a split.

This hand was definitely on bovada right>?

Carbon actually. I had a read that the SB was absurdly bad, but cold calling AK against a steal range seemed special even for a 51/9 type. Last night we had this hand:

I open A6 BTN 3 handed, he cold calls SB, some spazzy megafish calls BB.

Flop Q72 is to my liking. I bet and they call.

Turn 6 is also to my liking, so I bet again when checked to. He calls in the SB. HU.

River Q. Against a more aggro player, this is an easy value bet, and I'd expect to get snapped off by any A hi that got here this way, any 2, and any pocket pair below the 6, seldomly losing to a weak 7. Against this guy, not so much, as he's obviously capable of having something absurd here, like KQ. So I check and get shown Jacks.

This kind of touches on another point that I steal from jesse8888, on combative vs non-combative players.

A combative player will push his value hands, and will also make plays on you to try and get you to fold better. Like it's very unlikely I wouldn't hear from a hand like T9 at some point on this texture versus an aggressive, combative player.

A non-combative player will simply passively chase his draws. He won't try to extract value from more marginal made hands as well, preferring to get to showdown cheaply.

So after determining what category the player falls in, you can adjust your lines accordingly.

Against a non-combative player, your three barrels will work much much better here, because their range will contain far more draws, even weak ones like a T9o flop peel that turned a gutter, that will fold to a river bet. On the same token, value betting them thinly is dubious, because they have a lot more wicked strong and wicked weak hands in their distribution.

Against a combative player, you can't expect many folds on this river, as when they check call check call, they often have a marginal hand planning to show down (like a 55, A4, etc). On the other hand, they make for a better value bet, because their range is so capped, and they have to be calling with their 55 to avoid being exploitably foldy.

Or course some players can't help but just remove all the weak showdownables from their ranges OOP preflop. I've played a few guys HUHU whose BB 3 bet ranges is any Ace, any pp, and strong broadways, making them very easy to play against (after just calling, the majority of their range on Axx is under a ton of pressure, and in 3 bet pots, boards like T63 likely miss them as well). Against these guys, you adjust accordingly and see if they're more likely to show up with draws or weak pairs after x/c twice.