March Low-Content Thread - Page 11 - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

My last 302 hours are on the southern border of the 98.8 confidence interval of my expectation. This means a random 300 hour stretch has either a 1 in 83 or 1 in 166 chance of being this bad, I think 1 in 166. I'm not sure exactly how to calculate how often this will happen on average on a continuous running time frame, but I may work on that now.

03-09-2010 , 08:03 PM

#253

BigBadBabar

California Elephant

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,553

why not take a break and then work on your game?

03-09-2010 , 08:15 PM

#254

private joker

Most Definitely

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,244

Quote:

Originally Posted by MitchL

Links not working Joker.

Try this:

http://www.screenjunkies.com/movievi...t-friends-girl

03-09-2010 , 08:33 PM

#255

MitchL

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 8,521

Quote:

Originally Posted by private joker

Try this:

http://www.screenjunkies.com/movievi...t-friends-girl

Haha, yeah. Such an underrated movie. Think Boc and I saw it at the Commerce. We were in stitches, which is odd, bc Dane Cook is a ****ty comedian. Ofc Baldwin's parts were gold.

03-09-2010 , 08:36 PM

#256

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

[x] alec Baldwin is the nuts
[x] big bens nuts apparently also in play
[x] Leo called me prominent
[ ] there will be someone in Scottsdale born within a decade of me
[x] it will be awesome

03-09-2010 , 08:44 PM

#257

HOWMANY

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 6,355

Quote:

Originally Posted by Torello

how do you know what your expectation is?

03-09-2010 , 08:50 PM

#258

that_pope

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

[x] alec Baldwin is the nuts
[x] big bens nuts apparently also in play
[x] Leo called me prominent
[ ] there will be someone in Scottsdale born within a decade of me
[x] it will be awesome

[x] Born in 1982

03-09-2010 , 09:04 PM

#259

Torello

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 775

Quote:

Originally Posted by Torello

on a continuous running time frame, but I may work on that now.

Worked on it. Fairly sure about my results. About once every 6500 hours of continuous play. And the average length of the downswing was roughly 400 hours. Meaning at any particular time there's a 1 in 16 chance of being in the middle of a streak of running this bad, and someone playing full time hours would run this bad roughly once every 3 years.

k

03-09-2010 , 09:12 PM

#260

Torello

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 775

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOWMANY

how do you know what your expectation is?

Of course I can only use my lifetime w/r. If my actual w/r is lower than this, then it makes this swing much more likely, but then it also makes the previous times when I won money at 2x my current w/r even less likely too.

I suppose I could experiment with assuming a w/r much lower than I'm using and see how unlikely my lifetime results are in the positive direction but that seems unproductive since I already want to kill every single person I see.

03-09-2010 , 09:16 PM

#261

BigBadBabar

California Elephant

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,553

what games do you play, and where, and what expectation are you assuming?

03-09-2010 , 10:16 PM

#262

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

2-3 limps and I limp along with KTo in the CO. Button mucks, SB raises BB 3 bets. Only one limper calls, I fold. SB caps it 3 ways.

AQJr

sb bets bb raises limper fold lol sb calls.

Kr

check bet raise 3 bet 4 bet call all in.

7

SBs KK loses to BBs AA.

03-09-2010 , 10:17 PM

#263

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by that_pope

[x] Born in 1982

I lie apparently. '82 is a fine vintage.

03-09-2010 , 10:22 PM

#264

RudeboyOi

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,119

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

if you raised pf you wouldve won this pot

03-09-2010 , 10:27 PM

#265

pig4bill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 33,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by MitchL

Alec Baldwin can bite my nuts.

f
y
p

03-09-2010 , 10:33 PM

#266

pig4bill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 33,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by Torello

I already want to kill every single person I see.

In that case I won't make the joke about trying bounty tournaments that I was thinking of posting.

03-09-2010 , 10:59 PM

#267

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by RudeboyOi

if you raised pf you wouldve won this pot

I can't argue. 3 limps is too many

03-10-2010 , 12:38 AM

#268

bugstud

Minbet Master

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 14,280

Or too few

03-10-2010 , 02:15 AM

#269

RudeboyOi

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,119

im always suprised when my dad says something real witty for the situation at hand.

he got pulled over by a cop doing an illegal uturn today.

when hes questioning my dad, my dad says "i didnt make a U-Turn, i just made two left turns."

and the cop chuckles, "thats a good one. just for that im gonna let you go."

03-10-2010 , 02:22 AM

#270

Captain R

Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 7,573

I'm running Windows 7 in Parallels on my Mac. Friggin' awesome stuff.

03-10-2010 , 03:13 AM

#271

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain R

I'm running Windows 7 in Parallels on my Mac. Friggin' awesome stuff.

I'm so confused as to why one would want to do this.

03-10-2010 , 03:41 AM

#272

pig4bill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 33,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by RudeboyOi

Dayum, they throw the book at me when I try something like that.

03-10-2010 , 03:42 AM

#273

pig4bill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 33,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

I'm so confused as to why one would want to do this.

So one can feel superior for buying a Mac, yet still be able to use popular apps?

03-10-2010 , 05:39 AM

#274

SNOWBALL

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 9,314

to those who read or watch movies (on the ipod etc) at the table: are you able to follow the action of hands you aren't in?

03-10-2010 , 06:08 AM

#275

brick

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,889

I don't follow the action of hands I'm not in. Never really have. Too much effort.

I do try to get a read on the new players but sometime I get distracted from that. To my credit, once I play with someone for about 4 of 5 sessions I've got a really solid read.

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