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Old 07-16-2017, 01:16 AM   #51
OnTheRail15
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

I think the problem isn't that the third best player is losing in any particular game, it's that the third best player in a given game will be the 5th best in another game or the worst in a different game


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Old 07-16-2017, 10:59 AM   #52
maka2184
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Winrate will vary based on many factors. What is the largest game in the room? If there's no game to move up to, all the best players will either be there or in a different game in a different card room. Is your room a destination for recreational players? Las Vegas during the WSOP / weekend or LA during the tournament series come to mind.

Is there a ladder to that game or is there a huge jump between the biggest vs the second biggest game? If there isn't a reasonable way for a shot taker to win $ and move up, they won't. Also when players are losing or running bad, they'll often want the option to move down and rebuild. All players overrate their skill and this gives them cover to keep going.

Who are the worst players and how often to they play? What is their leak and how do you plan to exploit it? Games often end up with many good players just grinding out the bad players. Yes, there will be games with multiple donators who have bad leaks, but as you move up this is less and less likely. Even the spots will know how to bet when checked to, defend the blinds correctly, and have good post flop lines.

The largest game in one of the rooms I play is a 30/60 game. 1 big bet a hand = $120,000 / year at 2000 hours. I doubt there are five people if even that'll haul that much from the game alone. Of the three that come to mind, all exercise textbook preflop strategies and don't have over aggressive tendencies. They don't make 'moves' and at flat out consistent at calling with the best hand and getting called by a worst hand. $120,000/year seems like a lot because it's 'just' $10,000 a month. We've all had several run good sessions we hit that. Several good/great sessions != a year of sessions. You can't take your run good and multiply that infinite.

That said, if you're taking away half that, I would consider that very good. Poker is stupidly skewed because you have to play against players worst than you either by skill or enough run good. It doesn't matter if you're better than 90% of the card room or the entire poker playing population. To move up you just have to be flat out better than the people at your table.

Even with the $60k figure as a very good benchmark, I know for a fact most dealers are taking roughly that much home in tips and reported income. So the truth is your 50% run of the mill dealer is going to out earn your very good player without risking anything.

If you're in decent job making >$60k and earning $15-30k/year off poker, you're already huge winner. For LHE, I do think you need to be playing $40/80+ to even consider leaving the decent job. I'll leave it to regs from LA/LV/FL to talk about other regions.

Great post. My stretch goal 10 years,ago or so was to make 3BB/100 live on Commerce 20/40+ on a 1 week trip during LAPC playing 14-18 hours a day and DeathDonkey or another well known expert said it's not possible in the long run to make over 1BB/100 live.

However, there are exceptions where the best of the best like Schneids, BK, OnTheRail, Unguarded, AvoidThe9to5, DeathDonkey, pros from Colorado, could be making or are making well over 1BB/100 if they play primarily soft games and game selected.

For example, my best friend whose a genius that finished all college math in highschool who plays recreationally once a week makes well over 1BB/100 based on last 2 years.

Last edited by maka2184; 07-16-2017 at 11:08 AM.
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Old 07-16-2017, 01:17 PM   #53
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

Live players don't usually talk about win rates in terms of BB/100, but I would say win rates over 1BB/100 would definitely be achievable in games like the 20/40 at Commerce.
Not as high as 3BB/100 though.
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Old 07-16-2017, 05:55 PM   #54
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

1 BB/hr is doable in most live 20 games imo. And they aren't generally getting out 100 hands an hour.

Last edited by CrazyLond; 07-16-2017 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:47 AM   #55
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by OnTheRail15 View Post
I think the problem isn't that the third best player is losing in any particular game, it's that the third best player in a given game will be the 5th best in another game or the worst in a different game
This sounds right.
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Old 07-17-2017, 05:11 AM   #56
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

Live WR's are completely bogus and worthless to extrapolate anyway. It's hard to get a meaningful sample size in one year (especially if playing in mix games where some of the games are slower moving), and then after several years when you may finally have a large enough sample size, the game's difficulty might be completely different from what it was at the start of the sample, your skill level might be substantially different, etc.

For example in the Canterbury 40/80 mix game, I crushed it in 2015 and 2016, now halfway through 2017 I'm barely up money on the year in it. Does that mean I was the best player alive in those two years? Pretty unlikely. But it also doesn't mean I suddenly forgot how to play the games and suck now. Additionally, the game itself has definitely changed from 2015 to now so it wouldn't be correct for me to just add up those results over that period of time (or go even further back and include 2014, 2013, etc), and proclaim "this must be my winrate in the game" based on xyz years of results in it.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:27 AM   #57
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

These threads are full of misinformation.

No one is getting rich playing live LHE in 2017. I would venture the o/u on live only LHE players who have made over 100k in each of the past 3 years at 1.
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:28 AM   #58
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

Where exactly is the misinformation? I don't remember anyone talking about LHE being a path to riches.
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:58 AM   #59
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

I would say that the overall theme has been that LHE is in fact NOT a path to riches.
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:10 PM   #60
maka2184
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by Schneids View Post
Live WR's are completely bogus and worthless to extrapolate anyway. It's hard to get a meaningful sample size in one year (especially if playing in mix games where some of the games are slower moving), and then after several years when you may finally have a large enough sample size, the game's difficulty might be completely different from what it was at the start of the sample, your skill level might be substantially different, etc.

For example in the Canterbury 40/80 mix game, I crushed it in 2015 and 2016, now halfway through 2017 I'm barely up money on the year in it. Does that mean I was the best player alive in those two years? Pretty unlikely. But it also doesn't mean I suddenly forgot how to play the games and suck now. Additionally, the game itself has definitely changed from 2015 to now so it wouldn't be correct for me to just add up those results over that period of time (or go even further back and include 2014, 2013, etc), and proclaim "this must be my winrate in the game" based on xyz years of results in it.
Thank you Schneids.

I would argue you were in 2015-2016, and still probably are in the 1% or were the best in terms of skill in regards to LHE and mix games

Not sure if anyone has done an in depth statistical analysis but my guess is that Variance / standard deviation for mix games, especially short handed is very large as it seemed to have been the case in 2017.
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:17 PM   #61
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

schneids is #1!!!!!1
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:56 AM   #62
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0 View Post
These threads are full of misinformation.

No one is getting rich playing live LHE in 2017. I would venture the o/u on live only LHE players who have made over 100k in each of the past 3 years at 1.
People who grind 2k+ hours a year can def do it. Just very difficult to put in those hours on a year by year basis.

Also I would say it is difficult in general to get rich playing poker in 2017, not just LHE. Seems like if you could grind a lot of hours at 80-160 LHE and higher it is a better way to make $ compared to even many 200-400 mix games with tougher players, higher variance, and fewer dealt hands.

Last edited by NedSchneebly; 07-18-2017 at 01:06 AM.
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Old 07-18-2017, 01:02 AM   #63
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by NedSchneebly View Post
People who grind 2k+ hours a year can def do it. Just very difficult to put in those hours on a year by year basis.
One ten hour session is easy, agreed. Four a week for 50 weeks a year, maybe not so much.
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:29 AM   #64
maka2184
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by NedSchneebly View Post
People who grind 2k+ hours a year can def do it. Just very difficult to put in those hours on a year by year basis.

Also I would say it is difficult in general to get rich playing poker in 2017, not just LHE. Seems like if you could grind a lot of hours at 80-160 LHE and higher it is a better way to make $ compared to even many 200-400 mix games with tougher players, higher variance, and fewer dealt hands.
There was like a research paper with statisttical analysis of online NL online pros and the conclusion was that based on their sample of winning online pros, longer playing time equated to lower BB/100 on those sessions when playing over I think 4-6 hours.

You can argue this does not apply to live LHE but I think work life balance is more important in the long run to ensure you don't for example, burn out.

I've also always been a firm believer that what you earn as revenue should be diversified outside of poker from Trading, entrepreneurship, etc
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Old 07-18-2017, 11:58 AM   #65
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

these discussions always amuse me. Playing 2,000 hours a year is incredibly easy if its your job
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:21 PM   #66
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

For you it may be...for me it is not easy to do anything but sleep 2000 hours per year.
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:41 PM   #67
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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For you it may be...for me it is not easy to do anything but sleep 2000 hours per year.
Then you are likely incredibly lazy, thats all there really is to it.

Thats fine, since everyone's motivation for playing poker is different. For me personally, I didn't choose this career path because it would allow me to sleep as much as possible.
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Old 07-18-2017, 01:01 PM   #68
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

I think it's fair to say that some people have it in them to work 40 hours a week, every week, and not be miserable, and some people don't. Most of those who are able to do that happily have a regular job and are happy doing it. For most people who are drawn to poker, at least part of the draw is that they aren't forced to do the grind of going to work every day, whether they feel like it or not. So it's silly to assume that most poker players can do this, and frankly it's pretty judgemental and rude to insult those who can't, because they have body chemistries or mental issues you can't relate to.
Kind of like the people who I'm sure judge you for "throwing your education away" by gambling for a living.
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Old 07-18-2017, 01:26 PM   #69
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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I think it's fair to say that some people have it in them to work 40 hours a week, every week, and not be miserable, and some people don't. Most of those who are able to do that happily have a regular job and are happy doing it. For most people who are drawn to poker, at least part of the draw is that they aren't forced to do the grind of going to work every day, whether they feel like it or not. So it's silly to assume that most poker players can do this, and frankly it's pretty judgemental and rude to insult those who can't, because they have body chemistries or mental issues you can't relate to.
Kind of like the people who I'm sure judge you for "throwing your education away" by gambling for a living.
It seems like we are saying the same thing, basically we agree lots of poker players are lazy.

If you want to judge me for throwing away my education, you are welcome to since I did just that and it would be a pretty fair assessment.
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Old 07-18-2017, 02:36 PM   #70
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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Originally Posted by Jon_locke View Post
these discussions always amuse me. Playing 2,000 hours a year is incredibly easy if its your job
I've always thought so too, but you're consistently the only professional that says so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke View Post
It seems like we are saying the same thing, basically we agree lots of poker players are lazy.
I guess that's part of what draws them to it. A career that allows them to be lazy.

"Poker players are notoriously lazy. If a poker player goes to the bank and the laundry in the same day, it's a huge achievement."
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:27 PM   #71
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

I've been working 40 hours a week AND playing poker 40 hours a week.
I'll happily trade for just 50 hours of poker per week.
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:34 PM   #72
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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I've always thought so too, but you're consistently the only professional that says so.



I guess that's part of what draws them to it. A career that allows them to be lazy.

"Poker players are notoriously lazy. If a poker player goes to the bank and the laundry in the same day, it's a huge achievement."
I loved Mad Magazine as a kid. They did a feature on "mathematical formulas for life". I don't remember most of them, but I remember the formula for "Laziness":

The amount of work you avoid MINUS the amount of work you do to avoid the work you avoid.

Poker definitely attracts people with work ethic issues. The thing, though, is that it turns out that ALL human vocations reward work ethics.
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Old 07-18-2017, 06:07 PM   #73
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

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I've been working 40 hours a week AND playing poker 40 hours a week.
I'll happily trade for just 50 hours of poker per week.
80hrs?
Has long you fine life enjoyable, good for you .
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:07 PM   #74
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Live LHE Win Rates

In the long run, winning players are winning anywhere from 0.25BB to 1.5BB per hour. Probably a whole bunch of people between 0.25 and 0.99 per hour and very, very few between 1.0 and 1.5 per hour. I agree with schneids that live win rates are mostly meaningless.
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:00 PM   #75
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Re: Live LHE Win Rates

Since August 2014:

0.21 BB/hr @ 4/8 (822 hours)

1.45 BB/hr @ 8/16 (2206 hours)

1.06 BB/hr @ 20/40+ (281 hours)
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