I've been thinking about the grinderfish that put in a lot of hours, and play poorly. If they lose a few BB per hour, it seems like at even modest stakes, they could rack up 7 figure losses in only a few years (math below). I realize that I'm not saying anything very deep here, but I was really surprised by this: it seems absurd that people would lose that much at such small games.

So what am I missing? Do people just quit before they get that deep? (In that case, how do I keep seeing the same awful players for years on end)? Or am I way overestimating hourly losses and/or yearly hours played for these people?

Math:

Consider a 2BB / hour loser at 40/80: they lose $160/hour (on avg.). Playing 1500 hours / year, they're losing 240K/year. After 4.2 years, they're down $1MM+ on average. Same situation applies to bigger BB/hr losers at smaller stakes, or even more dedicated grinderfish who put in more hours at a smaller negative hourly rate.

I think you're overestimating loss rates.
My guess is that the average leaky grinder is losing .5 BB, worse players are losing 1-2, and megafish are losing 3+.

Just a guess though.

Most professionals don't play 1500 hours/year, so I think it would be pretty rare for a 2BB/hr loser to play that much.

Most of them probably quit or permanently move down before they hit seven figures.

Yeah, also that 2BB/hr loser can still have a winning year. That might buy him another 2 years of losing, or even longer if the variance favors him. The variance allows some bad players to last much longer than they are expected to.

Makes sense. Somehow, I'm glad to hear that there are probably fewer 1MM+ losers than I had thought.

Yeah, it would suck to live in world where lots of players were losing a quarter a year in 40 games

The people that can do it are the real winners, maybee they are losing at medium-hi stakes poker but they are winning at life.

Also of note is that the huge losers (2 BB/hr types) are playing like 300-500 hours a year tops. Losing $240k a year is tough, especially when you're dedicating so much time to poker and not to earning income.

No way a 2BB/hour loser is putting in 1500 hours a year. If someone can afford to lose at that clip, they're winning at life in other ways so just be thankful they enjoy playing poker.

This isn't consistent with my observations. Degenerate people who get hooked on poker, have a reasonable sum of money, frequently from a tournament win, and who play very poorly, usually lose it all and then barely survive. And in most cases, they're certainly not winning at life. But it doesn't mean they stop playing. What happens is they work their way down to the smallest limits.

Perhaps the most famous example of this was Nick the Greek Dandolos. For those who don't know who he was here's a link to his Wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Dandolos

Here's a famous quote from Nick which is also on his Wikipedia page:

Near the end of his life, Dandolos was near-broke and playing $5 limit draw poker games in Gardena, California. When asked by a fellow player how he could once play for millions and now be playing for such small stakes, Dandolos supposedly replied, "Hey, it's action, isn't it?"

And to prove my point, stop in at the poker room at the Orleans Casino here in Las Vegas. You'll see a number of well known poker players now playing very small stakes, and again, they're certainly not winning at life.

Mason

Hi dadjoey:

I want to follow up on your post as well. I've seen a number of these people over the years, and while they probably don't lose at a 2BB/hour rate, if you add in their living expenses which with some of them can be quite high, it can easily exceed this number.

I don't want to mention any names but there's one person I knew fairly well a number of years ago and who is now deceased. He claimed to be a Canadian businessman who managed to marry a recently divorced lady who had approximately a $500,000 settlement. The idea was because of his business expertise, he would manage her mony. Well, they lived great until the money was gone, and it took about three years.

Another guy, who is also no longer with us, use to be a regular in the $20-$40 game at Binions back in the early 1990s. To show how bad he played I once saw him sit down in a game two seats to the left of the big blind and post a blind. The next hand he put up a straddle. And then of couse on the following hand it was his big blind. So he was the only person I know who managed to take the big blind three hands in a row. He managed to work his way down to the smallest limits before he passed away, and I think he got money at times by talking others into business deals which never had a chance.

But my favorite one of these was a crazy player named Ray who I use to play with at The Mirage in the mid-1990s. This person was about 50 at the time, but one day, before he had lost all his money, he showed up in the poker room with a very pretty young girl who he was explaining poker to. It was over a year before I saw him again, and this time he was in the $3-$6 limit game. We figured that the girl got the remainder of his money before he gave it all away to the poker players.

I could go on.

Best wishes,
Mason

I agree with you and should have said the people that can do it and not have it matter. There are people that are wildly successful at other avenues in life and wouldn't even notice if they lost X. I think we would all rather be 8 sup, than the guy winning 1.5 bb vs him.

I mean, obviously, having giant losers in the game is good for the other poker players. And I enjoy winning my share of those monies.

But it still somehow feels sad to think about people losing millions in the modestly-sized games in which I play.

Hi Mason:

Thanks for your reply and sharing your stories. I've certainly seen people who have hit $5-$40k tournament scores and start playing mid stakes only to eventually lose it all. I'm sure you see this play out more because there are bigger and more frequent tournaments in Vegas ($1k turbos come to mind) and there are higher stakes games.

I've also seen people who used to frequent my mid stakes game when I started permanently move down in stakes. The conversations usually go whatever happened to x, y, z. Oh, they don't play this anymore. Once I saw one of the recs who is near retirement age become a prop and then security. I'm not sure how I felt about that.

I think you'll see more extreme outliers in the pits and the darkside. I worked for a corporation that banks those games for two years and nobody wins. I've seen several people hit $100k to $1M streaks only to lose it all back plus more. When I went down to the Bike last year I was shocked by how many Baccarat tables were in play.

While true, I don’t see this happening on any regular basis. What you do occasionally see are people wandering into the poker room, especially late at night, who fire off a bunch of money relative to the stakes they sit down at and then you never see them again. By the way, this is the strongest argument I know to eliminate all must move games.

MM

A friend of mine told me that he knows a player who claims to have lost $3 million in the Commerce 40-80. My first reaction was "impossible." My second reaction was a 7-figure loser probably wouldn't admit it. My third reaction was if it was true, I imagine he also played in the bigger games.

On the question of whether the big losers are also losers in life or winners, I would say there are both in equal measure. I think we tend to notice the life losers more, because, as Mason indicates, there are famous examples (Nick the Greek) and people we see all the time playing small stakes who used to be high rollers. But there are plenty of people who continue to play in the bigger games who play terribly but can afford it. Back in the day, the worst player in the biggest draw game at the Normandie in Gardena ($15-$30) told me he lost $60,000 a year, which was roughly $300 a day; my personal guess was that he was, if anything, underrepresenting his annual loss. His accountant told me that this fellow paid $500,000 quarterly in estimated taxes. So he clearly was a life winner who just didn't get draw poker. In my experience, the vast majority of fish in my game have always been well-heeled life winners.

Can you please elaborate on your must move comment? Thanks.

When must move games get short they usually break and then a list is created. Now when a live one walks in he can’t sit down and will often leave.

Best wishes,
Mason

This is largely a product of the vegas environment. I'm sure there are countlewss people there that cold lose 2bb/hour at 20-40 or 40-80 and not care at all, they are just unlikely to be playing those limits in vegas. Now take the guy that recreation player that can sit in a 1500-3k game and put him in minnesota where the largest limit allowed is 50-100 and see if he cares if he loses 200 an hour

It is pretty hard to be a decent long term winner without at least one person like this in the game.

Across a number of locations, midstakes LHE games can live or die (in terms of earning a solid winrate) based on the existence of people like this.

Agreed they are typically huge winners in life and generally are smart with interesting backgrounds. Be nice to them.

Well my experience is anecdotal but I think mason is seeing players come through the Bellagio and blow their money at mid stakes Lhe. It is rare that a very rich person will be content playing what for them is a very small stakes game, particularly if they rarely win at it - though it does happen. In Arizona one of the richest men I am aware of plays 20/40 and never higher.
But a better vegas example would be some of the fish in the Bobby’s room games, despite the fact they can lose millions in that room, for a few of them, that is still a small amount relative to their wealth.

I lived in Southern California for many years and the truly wealthy fish I played with seemed to never bat an eye at large losses. I agree with Andy fox entirely. In general i would say wealth in California is an order of magnitude higher than the wealth of Vegas locals and so the type of “fish” that can afford sustained losses in mid/high games is just very different.

I also totally agree with whoever said that the 2 bb/hr losers just don’t log that many hours. They may be able to afford to, but they have some sort of mental stop loss that they routinely hit in a short number of hours. If a guy lost 2 bb/hr and played 1500 hours a year he should be treated like a god lol

Tourists at The Bellagio, since a large number of them come from Ca, have the same order of magnitude wealth as what you see in Ca. Also, based on my observation, and this goes back to when I lived in South Ca, is that these people show up at all different stakes and blow a chunk of money relative to the particular stakes they sit down at and then we never see them again.

MM

So start the must move again. Happens all the time.

Also having a must move game going instead of a list makes it more likely that someone will wonder into the poker room and sit down.

I think he's suggesting two equal games, not 1 game + a list.