9-handed, it's folded to me and I raise KT in LP. Aggressive opponent in SB re-raises, BB folds and I call.

Flop is T43
SB bets and I raise.
Turn is 8
SB checks, I bet, SB calls.
River 6
SB checks...

I bet.

Thoughts?

I would probably wait until the turn to raise. Rest of the hand is good.

Call flop.

I’d just call flop and evaluate a lot of turns, most of which I’d just call again.

"call flop" is popular advice....

I put Villain on a lot of hands with an Ace or King in them, or a pocket pair maybe, so I thought I was likely ahead on the flop and figured I'd get more money in while I was, and before a potential A, Q or J turn card.

Would checking behind on the river be a mistake? Let's say I bet the river and Villain raises.... Should I call?

I liked the flop raise at first but I guess the argument against it is that there is no draw in his range on this board so let him barrel with whiffed over cards and you don't put more money in when he has overpair.

Is that the argument?

Why wait until turn though... what would you get value from?

As played on the river, the pot is 7.5. if you bet and he raised you're getting 10.5 to 1 to show down. Read is he's aggressive so I take those odds on the river but hating life doing it. If this was a typical loose passive I fold to AhKh.

If SB had an over pair, they should be 3-betting the flop and leading on the turn. If they have over cards they would likely lead and call the raise hoping the 10/1 pot odds would be rewarded should they hit their supposed "six outer".

I can see waiting until the turn to raise, but I like raising with what seems to be the best hand until otherwise indicated.

If you had AK would raising the flop be so bad? If not, then why not blend your value raises with your draws.

And if that's the case, then as SB with an over pair or small set, I 3-bet and fire the turn. I'm keeping the aggression on with presumed best hand from either seat, I want to put the last bet in.

I don't see the value in slow playing a fragile holding by checking behind on the flop to induce a turn raise.

First of all, a dangerous card could come which you might question continuing with the hand rather than raising and if a relatively safe card comes get value out of your best hand.

If SB check raises the turn you can turn to your reads to decide to call or fold, but in this line you're still getting nearly 5/1 to call their turn check raise and the river.

With the hand in question, unless you're willing to fold to a check raise on the river, you're laying 2/1 among hands where you have them beat as compared to hands that beat you.

I doubt many weaker "ten's" would 3-bet pre-flop and any over pair has you beat. Unpaired Broadway hands are probably not calling you on the river so you're getting called by 99 and maybe 77 but losing the everything else including the rare backdoor flush so I check behind on the river.

At least you get the bonus of having them muck or seeing how they play a particular hand to the river.

What bluff raises do you have on this flop?

Worse pairs, hands that picked up a draw, and stubborn call-downs.

Call flop, raise turn. If we assume LP = BTN, my sim calls 97% of it's range on this flop so that appears to be optimal as some strong players have already noted. Here is the sim's call flop, raise turn range:

Pairs: AA to 88, 44, 33
T's: ATs to T5s, ATo to T8o
8's: A8s to 98s, A8o to 98o
Bluffs: J7s (100%), J6s and J5s (30%), A3s, K3s, Q3s, 76s, 75s, 65s (Hearts Only)

Notice how the sim balances it's range here with value and bluffs. Some hands, like A3s, K3s, and Q3s will check back unimproved on rivers while a hand like 76s will bluff the river. Perfectly balanced on all streets.

Why raise turn at all?

For value?

Sim? What software is this?

So are we waiting for turn because villain range that calls down we get another half a bet out of and his range that folds to flop raise we get an extra BB out because an aggressive players turn cbet rate is so high in this situation?

Given the assumed wide ranges preflop we have a strong holding with our top pair. This is a highly peelable flop so the SB should have incentive to bet again. Waiting for the turn absent another read gets the most money in and protects our peels. We will want to bluff some turns so we also want to have value hands in that range. If the SB tends to donk check the turn a lot or maybe overplay his hand on the flop then raising the flop is probably more correct.

What worse hands are calling?

Ts4h3c8h

It’s not as if this is a narrow range spot. If it were like, we open UTG, get 3 bet by UTG1, and now SB 4 bets, calling turn would be reasonable. But it’s a relatively wide range spot (we open in late position and get 3 bet by a SB described as “aggressive”) on a fairly innocuous board where were in the top of our range.

On this board I’d expect to get value from,
QTs, JTs, T9s
99, 77, 66, 55
AK, AQ, AJ, A9s, A8s, A5s, A4s
KQ, KJ, K9s
QJ, Q9s, Q8s?
89s, 87s?
AhXh, KhXh (where X is not Th), QhXh, JhXh - some of these heart draws are obviously redundant

There are far more combos of hands that will bet and call a raise that are worse than there are better. That makes this a raise for value. We can use a hand like T7s or 99 as a bluff catcher, but KT is too high up in our range to use as such.

Thanks for spelling it out mongidig and rodeo

Thanks all. I bet the river, villain checkraised.... I called and she showed AJ for the win.

It left me wondering if I should've done something differently to win the pot before the draw came in, and what type of notes should I be taking on that player.

I really hate flop play. What strong hands are you calling with on the flop?

As far as what worse hands are calling, I'm pretty sure there's numerous opponents that I'd probably bet call AQ against on this board given ranges. It's a favorable board for whomever has the stronger range preflop, and on turns like this that don't change much at all, opponents who raise out all of their Tx become susceptible to more value bets.

If I have AQo and you raise the turn, the only hand im beating is no pair. I don’t have many opponents who raise me with no pair on the turn.

They don’t have to have that too often to call down AQ if they raise out all of their Tx on the flop. If there’s no passivity to exploit, I’m bet calling a ton.


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How are you going to win the pot before the draw comes in? Once she bet/calls the flop, she is going the distance. She’s not going to fold the turn getting amazing odds to draw to up to 15 outs. You’re being results oriented.

Make a note that she’s capable of check raising the river with backdoor flushes and move on. There’s just no way you’re going to win the hand unless she check/folds the flop. Honestly putting myself in her shoes, I would play the whole hand the same way, possibly check/raising the turn with some frequency.

Checkraisdraw's post got me thinking too. What's optimal play here now that we know she had AhJh? Preflop is perfect, flop should be bet / call, turn should be bet / raise / call, river check / bet / raise / call. I think that's how this hand should be played.

So, the call flop, raise turn line in position would extract the maximum value, assuming luck box didn't get there .