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Old 11-16-2017, 07:22 PM   #101
Mason Malmuth
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Re: Keep the pot smaller preflop?

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Originally Posted by Jon_locke View Post
Mason, that was the point of my entire post that nobody else addressed and why you can't view this specific situation as the pot is large, lets do X.

Look at the combinatrix. When we have JJ there are only so many combos of Jx hands our opponents can have. This will heavily weight their range to bad Ax (lots of Ax suited combos) KQ/KT type, and underpairs.

Will they fold the flop if we bet? NO. Will they fold the turn after we bet the flop? MOST LIKEL. Yes they are getting a huge price, but people still fold KQ on a 9832 board facing a good player that has cold 4 bet pre and bet every street. Even if they don't put us on overpair they will put us on AK an no they likely have 3 outs at best, not to mention they are most likely sharing outs with other players.
Okay. But what about five-out hands? Many of the hands you just listed will have five outs after the flop and if they're unimproved after the turn, given the size of this pot should call for one big bet on the turn and thus win 10 percent of the time on the river. Also, what about hands like QT, QJ (even though there won't be as many of these), KT, KJ, AT, and AJ. Won't they also call one big bet and their chance of beating your two tens on the river in most cases is around 15 percent.

In addition, I don't think that AK and AQ are automatic turn folds, especially the AK. But if you're able to get a raise in it can be a different story.

When the pots are very large, there's more value in getting these type of hands out so they can't draw out on the river than in collecting extra bets.

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Old 11-17-2017, 04:56 AM   #102
samdash
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Re: Keep the pot smaller preflop?

Its funny that OP was asking about PREFLOP action for creating the best flop scenario, but he presents that at the flop decision point, causing some people reading to anticipate that he was going to ask about checking back the FLOP for manipulation.
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Old 11-17-2017, 05:18 AM   #103
chillrob
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Re: Keep the pot smaller preflop?

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Originally Posted by samdash View Post
Its funny that OP was asking about PREFLOP action for creating the best flop scenario, but he presents that at the flop decision point, causing some people reading to anticipate that he was going to ask about checking back the FLOP for manipulation.
I was originally wondering why that came up also and thought PV was just psychic, but I think that is a more reasonable explanation.
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Old 11-17-2017, 05:42 PM   #104
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Re: Keep the pot smaller preflop?

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We've known for some time now that Mr. Valente is The Future.
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