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Originally Posted by Jon_locke
WHY CHECKING JJ HERE IS JUST TERRIBLE:
(one last post just then back to retirement) There are numerous problems with checking JJ here so lets try and go through just a few reasons why its just horrible to check this flop:
For starters, one reason people play poorly is because they don't look at hands on a hand by hand basis. People may look at this situation as a large pot and play accordingly but thats not sufifcent, the may look at this as a large pot with an overpair but thats not sufficenient. This situation is unique and this situation is JJ on an 893 flop....
You should always adjust for the specific situation. Usually in these large pots this has something to do with the type of players that you're against and is addressed in our book that you didn't read. Also, in this specific example, the player in the straddle can easily have any two cards since straddlers often will play no matter what.
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Why is this uniquie, because lets look at the range of hands we are actually targeting to fold out on the turn with taking this line. Hands like Ax, KQ, underpair, bad gutshots are going to fold the turn for 1 bet (so we never want to give them a free turn card then watch them fold turn for 1 bet).
If there's no bet on the flop and then a bet on the turn, you think players would then fold all these hands getting 11-to-1. Perhaps the underpair will fold but this conclusion seems highly doubtful relative to the other listed hands.
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The hands that will call the turn that we want to fold are mostly hands that have a gutter or stragiht draws, JT, JQ to name a few (T7s) if its in there, we would love these hands to fold, but guess what....we have JJ. We just block a ton of the JT, JQ combos and block the outs to T7s as well.
So a T7 hand, which is getting 11-to-1, has six outs to the nuts given we have two jacks, is a hand we successfully block out? And what about QJ? It has four outs to the nuts, a ten, and another four outs to a queen. So even though we block a jack, this hand is still getting 11-to-1 and has eight outs to beat us.
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What this means is players will have a range of hands that will mostly fold the turn for 1 bet or two at a fairly similar frequency.
And what about a player who has five outs, an A8 would be an example. Getting 11-to-1 they'll call virtually every time. But getting something like 13-to-2, they'll often fold when looking at a raise.
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Now lets move on to the next part of the analysis we ignored by not looking at this hand on a case by case basis. Let assume we capped pre and we checked back the flop. Now we are hoping that cutoff bets and we can raise.
While it's clearly best if the cutoff bets, if a different player bets and someone called between, you should still want to raise. The reason should be obvious.
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Lets assume teh turn is a 3 which is great and it checks to the cutoff. What does he bet on the 8933 board. Well since we would likely try and cr flop his range is uncapped here. He's not going to bet AQ and could possibly bet AK, but most likely wouldn't.
Come-on. It's a large pot and it appears that no one wants it. Many players would bet with very little, and they certainly would bet many pairs that jacks beat.
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We already know his range is 77+, 89s, ATs+. So basically he bets 77, TT, and QQ-AA. if he has QQ-AA we now manage to get in 3 bets on the turn basically drawing dead and if we has TT we don't care to much about getting everyone else to fold because there are now 4 dead Tens and Jacks so all of the hands they may peel won't even have that may outs.
Poker is a game based on probability, and probability means that there are no sure things. The purpose of these plays is to increase your probability of winning a large pot. It doesn't guarantee that the probability of winning is now 100 percent.
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A lot of the reasons, the raise turn to get people to fold line wont work have already been covered so I won't go over them to much. I'll just restate that I think its horrible and if you actually look at this specific hand on this specific flop texture rather than some abstract concept generally I can't see any way you cold arrive at a different conclusion.
It's generally my policy not to announce that someone plays horrible. I much prefer to state the merits of the case and let our posters decide for themselves. In the statistical world of mathematical surveys, something I once was involved with, this is known as conditioning. So when you start by saying something like "This strategy is just horrible" it's actually an attempt to precondition others to your point of view without any explanation as to why you think your approach is best. I just thought our posters/readers should understand this tactic.
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No more content posts from me, Good luck at the pokers
Mason