Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
Mason, that was the point of my entire post that nobody else addressed and why you can't view this specific situation as the pot is large, lets do X.
Look at the combinatrix. When we have JJ there are only so many combos of Jx hands our opponents can have. This will heavily weight their range to bad Ax (lots of Ax suited combos) KQ/KT type, and underpairs.
Will they fold the flop if we bet? NO. Will they fold the turn after we bet the flop? MOST LIKEL. Yes they are getting a huge price, but people still fold KQ on a 9832 board facing a good player that has cold 4 bet pre and bet every street. Even if they don't put us on overpair they will put us on AK an no they likely have 3 outs at best, not to mention they are most likely sharing outs with other players.
Okay. But what about five-out hands? Many of the hands you just listed will have five outs after the flop and if they're unimproved after the turn, given the size of this pot should call for one big bet on the turn and thus win 10 percent of the time on the river. Also, what about hands like QT, QJ (even though there won't be as many of these), KT, KJ, AT, and AJ. Won't they also call one big bet and their chance of beating your two tens on the river in most cases is around 15 percent.
In addition, I don't think that AK and AQ are automatic turn folds, especially the AK. But if you're able to get a raise in it can be a different story.
When the pots are very large, there's more value in getting these type of hands out so they can't draw out on the river than in collecting extra bets.
MM
