20/40 7 handed.

Villain in SB seems to be always opening BVB. He is a solid lag/tag. We don't have a lot of direct history but we know each others games. I've seen him make a weak peel on the following type flop and then fold the turn.

He opens SB and I 3b JTo from BB and he calls. I don't think he has a 4 bet range.

347...He checks, I bet, He calls....I think he leans toward CR flop as apposed to waiting till turn with his value range and bluff range.

3479...He checks, I bet, He calls...He doesn't have a 4, 7 or 9 since I would have heard from him by now. He could have a 3 but mostly has over cards.

Are you thinking "He's not gonna fold if I barrel on this board" or If I barrel maybe he'll fold Q or K high. He's not folding Ace high. Do we just check it back on a blank river and hope to be good? I suppose an Ace river would be good to bet.

Man you sure do make a lot of assumptions about how people are gonna play. If you know what he's going to do with all those hands then its a combo counting exercise - you need him to fold 1/7th of the time, does he have enough K/Q high hands?

This is really not a good way to think about poker though. How's your 3 bet pre + double barrel range looking on this board against a capped range that apparently almost never has a pair? Now where are you in that range?

I agree!

Upon further review I'm not doing great on the turn range on range. I think I should just check my hand that now has potentially quite a few outs. This board is not good as far as getting him to fold at any point. Maybe it checks down and I win with J high.

In solverland, this is a 100% 3-barrel on every river. The bluff targets mostly Q5, Q6, K6, K5, KJ, and KQ. It only folds KQ half the time and KJ 100% of the time. Of these folding hands, JT only blocks KJ. So JT is an excellent bluff candidate.

The BB's value range is enormous on the river. For example, it value bets AJ most of the time on a paired river. So we definitely need to bluff JT given our massive value range.

Fwiw, I like to call JTo a lot vs an SB open to make my calling range less trashy. I am guessing that it is mixed using a pre-flop solver, but I have never seen these solutions.

You are wrong here, you should try to figure out where your assumptions are way off. Your range should be crushing his on the turn, JT is one of your worst hands, this is an easy bluff it off.

Nod this. Fwiw JTo is a mix pre with mostly calls (which means its no big deal either way)