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07-21-2009 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
[ ] spelled callipygian correctly
[X] called out incorrect math correctly



Exactly. Variance grows linearly, so the standard deviation grows to the square root of the x-axis. If you're measuring per unit time, then your standard deviation grows as (SD per hour)*sqrt(hours). If you're measuring per hand, then your standard deviation grows as (SD per hand)*sqrt(hands).





This is the idealized graph for B = W*h + z*S*sqrt(h), where
B = bankroll
W = winrate (set to +1.5 BB/hr in this graph)
S = standard deviation per hour (set to 12 BB/hr in this graph)
z = confidence in z-score (z = -1, top 84% of samples above the line; z = -2, top 98%; z = -3, top 99.8%)
h = hours (0 to 2000 hours in this graph)

t0 = time at which you can be sure of winning to z SD's (derived from W*t0 + z*S*sqrt(t0) = 0).
tmin = time at which you are most likely to go busto (derived from dB/dh = 0)
Bmin = minimum bankroll that you need to be sure of not going busto to z SD's.

-----

I did a study a while back, where instead of making winrate W, it was Wt = f(W, DRAWt), where DRAWt = the distance between time t between your current bankroll and its alltime high (i.e. drawdown). The assumption being that you play worse when you are running bad. It has pretty significant implications on bankroll requirements if the model is true...well depending on how much Wt is allowed to change.
07-22-2009 , 12:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkamowitz
Next time you go try monkfish liver.
Monkfish liver rocks! I haven't been able to find a place around here with it for a long time. Any ideas?

-ActionBob
07-22-2009 , 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorBen
everyone should be forced to watch big brother.
Can't. In a rental with no tivo and it takes two hours to get my kids down without beatings (1 hour 45 minutes with a good strapping). Natalie still in?
07-22-2009 , 01:02 AM
what % of people would be really mad at me if I attacked them with a stungun but put $1500 in their pocket after and ran away?

i say it would make 90% of american lives a little more interesting and therefore better.

2nd question: what % of fish would be mad if did that after busting them but instead of $1500 left them whatever i won? I say almost zero%

Drunkteddy,

I'm coming for you.

I was gonna rip his heart out. I'm the best ever. I'm the most brutal and vicious, the most ruthless champion there has ever been. No one can stop me. Drunkteddy is a conqueror? No! He's no Alexander! I'm Alexander! I'm the best ever. I'm Sonny Liston. I'm Jack Dempsey. There's never been anyone like me. I'm from their cloth. There is no one who can match me. My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable, and I'm just ferocious. I want his heart! I want to eat his children! Praise be to Allah!"
07-22-2009 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo doc
I could make a dinner suggestion if that'd help. If you're gonna let Howard do it, I'll PM you the wines that you should select. It's on his dime, right?
Uh, no, I'm playing 8-16............
07-22-2009 , 01:18 AM
Sashimi salads are the best.
07-22-2009 , 01:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DesertCat
Can't. In a rental with no tivo and it takes two hours to get my kids down without beatings (1 hour 45 minutes with a good strapping). Natalie still in?
yes. she introduced the house to propbetting the other day when the loser of a pool match b/w her and lydia had to dress like the other for 2 days. shes still an annoying prat though.
07-22-2009 , 02:18 AM
Ben what the **** are you yammering about
07-22-2009 , 02:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by private joker
He c/c the flop, the turn went check-check (obv I picked up on a tell) and I cry-called his river bet. I love having position.
nice ck on turn, last time i had a real good live read, but just couldnt bring myself to trust myself (so it shouldnt be considered a good read since i didnt act upon it, but so be it):

#1 lady raises, i end up headsup with 55, flop AJ5, she bets and calls my raise in a way that tells me im f'd, turn 3 completing the rainbow and she checks in a way that tells me again that im f'd and that i should make a sick turn check (and happily table my loser at the river to piss her off) since ive played so many hands against her, but who am i kidding, who in their right mind is going to check a set on that rainbow board, so i bet, call her c/r, make a crying call on the river. and basically the only hand im beating is AJ, since she wouldve 3bet any other ace on the flop and likely folding any other J holdings (a5 and a3 are holdings but only when she's on tilt and she wasnt at this point).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorBen
everyone should be forced to watch big brother.
ive watched a few seasons (maybe 2, 3 seasons tops) and like it, but never know when it's on, so have just been randomly watching this year when flipping the channels and notice it's on and too hard to follow if you miss out a few episdoes. that said, there really aren't many people to cheer for this year and way more that just absolutely disgust me. ronnie is just lol sad
07-22-2009 , 02:59 AM
gobbedlygeek told me there was like a fistfight up in here and I guess I just kinda missed it cause I read 3 pages and it's not here...wtf.

I turned a 4.5 rack win into a 1.5 rack win with striking grace. At least I won.....

KhQd < Ts8s on a Kc7s4h board. Not only did he call the flop check/raise, but he raised the turn. And I hit a King on the river. And still lost.
07-22-2009 , 03:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888

KhQd < Ts8s on a Kc7s4h board. Not only did he call the flop check/raise, but he raised the turn. And I hit a King on the river. And still lost.
im convinced live poker is more rigged than online, i think i could come up with 10+ of these per day and you know i only play 3-4hr sessions w/ hourly breaks.

kj < a3 on K96
9 8 < kt on J83 flop where he called two cold after i c/r, called the 4 turn but he's a floorman so i wasnt surprised he chased and hit his offsuit K

ok, thats enuf
07-22-2009 , 06:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Beale
Uh, no, I'm playing 8-16............
Well then, perhaps we should just maintain the venerable tradition of having the visiting 2p2er take care of the check. Sound about right?
07-22-2009 , 07:22 AM
If that's really the tradition, I'll be in phx, la, sd and the bay before sept. I love to eat, but I'm not fat so it won't hurt you all too bad.
07-22-2009 , 07:29 AM
I should have moved down to either 6/12 or $200NL by then, lolmit, so Taco Bell is on me (or Pizza Hut, or the combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell).
07-22-2009 , 08:12 AM
Wait my post makes no sense. Whatever involves me going places amd eating free, even taco bell, that's the new tradition.
07-22-2009 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolmitHE
Wait my post makes no sense. Whatever involves me going places amd eating free, even taco bell, that's the new tradition.
Luckily at least half the places you mentioned give free food in their casinos!
07-22-2009 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolmitHE
If that's really the tradition, I'll be in phx, la, sd and the bay before sept. I love to eat, but I'm not fat so it won't hurt you all too bad.
Tradition holds that if you're visiting, you're buying. And that won't hurt the locals one whit.
07-22-2009 , 12:54 PM
I spend > $10 a day on food in San Jose.
07-22-2009 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
gobbedlygeek told me there was like a fistfight up in here and I guess I just kinda missed it cause I read 3 pages and it's not here...wtf.
Start at post 633. It is between Parker and Boc, and you were there for the beginnings of it, because you mentioned PJ stopping it...
07-22-2009 , 03:02 PM
Here's a bit of BR protection advice: leo doc sets the bar high. Try to be his guest, that's the goal, but don't try to be his type of host unless you're really robusto: Limo, top class restaurant, free-flowing fine wine (and he knows what he's choosing). Find out where his next poker trip will be and tell him you'll be in town, that's the way to do it.
07-22-2009 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maniacfish
Well you don't have the preflop action right. there was two posters behind the button and it was five-way action to the flop since one poster actually folded. the limper was actually UTG. your raise was from UTG+1, so really your range should be much stronger than what you would have in MP making my call much more fishy than u give credit for which is why you love playing with me hence poker being so profitable

second, i didnt announce 9? i announced 9 period.

also congrats on the baby and the jackpot!
You play good post-flop, I just played better (that hand, anyway -- I think I'm like 0-for-5 against you in the last couple of sessions). When you're running well, you're tough to beat, although sometimes you look like you're trying way too hard to win each and every hand you get dealt.
07-22-2009 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo doc
Tradition holds that if you're visiting, you're buying. And that won't hurt the locals one whit.
You didn't see my other post. I changed the tradition.
07-22-2009 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Beale
Here's a bit of BR protection advice: leo doc sets the bar high. Try to be his guest, that's the goal, but don't try to be his type of host unless you're really robusto: Limo, top class restaurant, free-flowing fine wine (and he knows what he's choosing).
Like here, for example:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...-stuff-535635/

Quote:
Find out where his next poker trip will be and tell him you'll be in town, that's the way to do it.
Next trip is Tunica but that doesn't really count since comps are so abundant. However, I intend to be one of the inaugural guests when the CAZ opens the new resort. I trust you or pope will keep me apprised.
07-22-2009 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolmitHE
You didn't see my other post. I changed the tradition.
That sir, is not possible on this forum. I'll demonstrate why.

Any forum member that believes that a visiting member should not pay for dinner, please raise your hand.

(Majority rules, btw.)
07-22-2009 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo doc

Next trip is Tunica but that doesn't really count since comps are so abundant. However, I intend to be one of the inaugural guests when the CAZ opens the new resort. I trust you or pope will keep me apprised.
I hear that they might open the poker room ahead of everything else, maybe November, not sure. If not then sometime early next year. And we'll at least split the check next time unless I'm running really good. I think it'll come down to a mini-'fight' because you're so hospitable but, really, you treated us royally last time and if the other guys come along I hope we can treat you. We'll take your limo, though, because I know you get one full time anyway.

      
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