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 Mid-High Stakes Limit Discussions of mid-high stakes limit Texas Hold'em

07-19-2009, 07:30 PM   #701
gaming_mouse
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Anacardo jfc 'a lot more wild' you say faaaaaaaaantastic
Not the final results, just the ups and downs of the individual graphs (chance of having a downswing of X, etc). The variance of where you land at the end of the year would be the same. Also, I am only guessing that they are sampling from a normal distribution; they may be using actual data and sampling from that, but probably not imo.

07-19-2009, 07:50 PM   #702
jesse8888
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse Not the final results, just the ups and downs of the individual graphs (chance of having a downswing of X, etc). The variance of where you land at the end of the year would be the same. Also, I am only guessing that they are sampling from a normal distribution; they may be using actual data and sampling from that, but probably not imo.
Huh? Surely they are sampling a normal distribution for each hour. What are you suggesting?

 07-19-2009, 07:56 PM #703 gaming_mouse Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: taking notes on u (see profile) Posts: 13,709 Re: July Low-Content Thread So the individual graphs, each is like your own graph in PT or HM. Those graphs are generated by your actual wins each hand of poker. If you make a histogram of this underlying distribution -- call it the LHE distribution -- it is most certainly not normal. So you can't just take a normal distribution with the same mean and SD of a LHE distribution, and then generate a graph from it. The flucutations in the graph will be different -- in particular, the graphs from a normal dist will be less swingy. That last part is from memory, because at some point I made a simulator to do it the right way, based on my actual hand data.
07-19-2009, 08:26 PM   #704
jesse8888
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse So the individual graphs, each is like your own graph in PT or HM. Those graphs are generated by your actual wins each hand of poker. If you make a histogram of this underlying distribution -- call it the LHE distribution -- it is most certainly not normal. So you can't just take a normal distribution with the same mean and SD of a LHE distribution, and then generate a graph from it. The flucutations in the graph will be different -- in particular, the graphs from a normal dist will be less swingy. That last part is from memory, because at some point I made a simulator to do it the right way, based on my actual hand data.
I think that the distibution for an hour of hands (or 100) converges to the normal distribution. In fact I'm pretty sure that for any random process, as you add trials, the resultant outputs distribution converges to the normal distribution.

 07-19-2009, 08:42 PM #705 jesse8888 Yes, you barred     Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,624 Re: July Low-Content Thread From Wikipedia: By the central limit theorem, any variable that is the sum of a large number of independent factors is likely to be normally distributed. For this reason, the normal distribution is used throughout statistics, natural science, and social science[1] as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an experiment is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and the propagation of uncertainty is computed using this assumption. So the way to think of this is the following. If you flipped 100 coins 100 times and then graphed the number of heads you came up with, it would look like the normal distribution. If you played 100 hands 100 times and graphed the number of bets you won or lost, the graph would look like the normal distribution. Admittedly flipping 1000 coins would be better, as would playing 1000 hands, but 100 does the job just fine. The simulator that DD used almost assuredly just pulls a result for each 100 hand chunk (660 in his example) and tacks the result onto the graph. gaming mouse is right that the graph would be more "swingy" if they used actual hand data, but not in the way he described. Each graph line would be "correct" at each of the 660 100 hand demarcations. The line between those points would be very swingy (like you see in online players graphs), but the start and end points would be the same.
 07-19-2009, 08:57 PM #706 gaming_mouse Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: taking notes on u (see profile) Posts: 13,709 Re: July Low-Content Thread Jesse, Not to be obnoxious, but I have a MS in Statistics. I know what the CLT is. Yes, if you grouped the hands into chunks, you could apply the CLT. I was assuming that they weren't doing that. But now that you point it out, I'm sure they are. So ya, the missing variance won't really affect the way these graphs looks, we are zoomed out so far.
 07-19-2009, 09:08 PM #707 jesse8888 Yes, you barred     Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,624 Re: July Low-Content Thread 1000 players playing 2000 hours at \$50 per hour and a standard dev of \$440 per hour (my numbers for live 20/40).
 07-19-2009, 09:14 PM #708 gaming_mouse Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: taking notes on u (see profile) Posts: 13,709 Re: July Low-Content Thread you put 200000 for number of hands, which would imply 100 hand/hr.
07-19-2009, 09:18 PM   #709
jesse8888
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse you put 200000 for number of hands, which would imply 100 hand/hr.
My idea is that it would simulate playing 2000 hours in my case, as the \$50 and \$440 are my numbers per hour, not per 100 hands.

07-19-2009, 09:21 PM   #710
jesse8888
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse Jesse, Not to be obnoxious, but I have a MS in Statistics. I know what the CLT is. Yes, if you grouped the hands into chunks, you could apply the CLT. I was assuming that they weren't doing that. But now that you point it out, I'm sure they are. So ya, the missing variance won't really affect the way these graphs looks, we are zoomed out so far.
Spot on

I never claimed you didn't know about the CLT...mostly I looked it up for myself and the benefit of others here who could learn from it

07-19-2009, 09:26 PM   #711
gaming_mouse
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by jesse8888 My idea is that it would simulate playing 2000 hours in my case, as the \$50 and \$440 are my numbers per hour, not per 100 hands.
ah got it. numbers come out very similar.

so basically, for a 20/40 player, a good year is more than twice as good as a bad year, and a really bad year is like school teacher salary.

and this is all assuming you treat it like a 9-5 job, which pretty much nobody does. When you put in a more reasonable 1400 hours, things look even worse.

07-19-2009, 09:39 PM   #712
jesse8888
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse ah got it. numbers come out very similar. so basically, for a 20/40 player, a good year is more than twice as good as a bad year, and a really bad year is like school teacher salary. and this is all assuming you treat it like a 9-5 job, which pretty much nobody does. When you put in a more reasonable 1400 hours, things look even worse.
That's one thing I've taken out of all of this. There is a BIG difference in how long things can go badly for players who put in 40 hours a week and others who only put in 25. You don't want to quit your job to play poker 80 hours a week, but if you don't put in enough hours while playing LHE your downswings can lost a long friggin' time.

 07-19-2009, 10:48 PM #714 undertheinfluence grinder     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: the corner asylum Posts: 625 Re: July Low-Content Thread breaking streaks, beginning new ones 1-9 last 10 times ive flopped a set. broke my 5 set losing streak winning a nice pot during my first 30 minutes today, then proceeded to flop 3 more sets and lose em all. oh yeah, QQ < JT on Q77 one flop the other day, lol...then this online in 1st tourney i sign up for when i got back from the nightmare at the cardroom to build on my new streak. Poker Stars \$100+\$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t30 - 9 players The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com SB: t3640 M = 5.64 BB: t3280 M = 5.09 Hero (UTG): t3975 M = 6.16 UTG+1: t1970 M = 3.05 UTG+2: t3100 M = 4.81 MP1: t5495 M = 8.52 MP2: t3870 M = 6 CO: t3190 M = 4.95 BTN: t4595 M = 7.12 Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is UTG with 3 3 Hero raises to t650, 4 folds, CO calls t650, 2 folds, BB calls t400 Flop: (t2345) T 2 3 (3 players) BB checks, Hero bets t750, CO calls t750, BB calls t750 Turn: (t4595) Q (3 players) BB checks, Hero bets t2545 all in, CO calls t1760 all in, BB folds River: (t8115) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in) Final Pot: t8115 Hero shows 3 3 (three of a kind, Threes) CO shows T T (three of a kind, Tens) CO wins t8115
07-20-2009, 02:02 AM   #715
Sailboats
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse PSA: Anyone who plays on the Cake network beware. You should read the thread in the Zoo called "CakePoker closing down accounts". Read the OP and then skip to this post: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=139 Really scary stuff.
ya but original OP got banned and is not really a credible source.

07-20-2009, 02:28 AM   #716
Yodaman
grinder

Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 505

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gaming_mouse PSA: Anyone who plays on the Cake network beware. You should read the thread in the Zoo called "CakePoker closing down accounts". Read the OP and then skip to this post: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=139 Really scary stuff.
wow you just wasted 10 minutes of my life

being the good samaritan that i am, this entire thread was a troll.

 07-20-2009, 10:20 AM #717 gaming_mouse Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: taking notes on u (see profile) Posts: 13,709 Re: July Low-Content Thread ya sorry, i wasted more than that. very weird. i know ppl lie and conceal all the time in those threads, but this is the first one i've seen that was just made up out of thin air. he did a pretty good job too....
 07-20-2009, 11:16 AM #718 that_pope Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Casino AZ Posts: 22,829 Re: July Low-Content Thread I know its not my fault, but should I feel shady at all? When I bet the river as a bluff or as a valuebet and get called, I instantly turn my hand over like it is the nuts very confidently regardless of the situation. I leave it up to my opponent to decide if they have me beat, I do not wish to give them that information for free. So I raise JTo in the HJ and get called by both blinds. Flop comes 689, I bet, SB calls. Turn is an 8, I bet, SB calls. River is a 3, no flush, I bet, SB calls. I turn over my JT confidently, and he glances quickly and mucks. After the cards hit the muck, he rereads my hand and tries to grab for them, way too late. I win the pot. Thoughts? Edit: In cases like this when they might misread the board, I know it is possible for this exact situation to happen. I also do it when I have 65s on an KKQJ9 board.
07-20-2009, 11:26 AM   #719
KenoVictoryLap
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Join Date: Sep 2008
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by that_pope I know its not my fault, but should I feel shady at all? When I bet the river as a bluff or as a valuebet and get called, I instantly turn my hand over like it is the nuts very confidently regardless of the situation. I leave it up to my opponent to decide if they have me beat, I do not wish to give them that information for free. So I raise JTo in the HJ and get called by both blinds. Flop comes 689, I bet, SB calls. Turn is an 8, I bet, SB calls. River is a 3, no flush, I bet, SB calls. I turn over my JT confidently, and he glances quickly and mucks. After the cards hit the muck, he rereads my hand and tries to grab for them, way too late. I win the pot. Thoughts? Edit: In cases like this when they might misread the board, I know it is possible for this exact situation to happen. I also do it when I have 65s on an KKQJ9 board.
Blah blah blah players protect their own hand blah blah blah.

All that said, if you have a special "I have the nuts" roll that you use only in spots where you are trying to steal the pot, it's kinda angle-ish. But if you roll your cards the same way everytime and this is a side effect, meh, so what.

 07-20-2009, 12:34 PM #720 Frond Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Aiyah! Posts: 5,895 Re: July Low-Content Thread An entire page wo a HowMany beat. What is happeneing here?
07-20-2009, 12:41 PM   #722
that_pope
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Frond An entire page wo a HowMany beat. What is happeneing here?
In before 'it wasn't a page (unless it has 100 posts on it)'.

 07-20-2009, 12:45 PM #723 that_pope Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Casino AZ Posts: 22,829 Re: July Low-Content Thread I think I posted it in here before, but there was a case when I got all in vs someone on the turn, and announced 'two pair' and he didn't see the bottom card paired the board on the river (after I announced two pair) making his overpair good. I never saw his hand since he mucked instantly, so this is completely his fault more so than the JT hand. I should never say "Oh, I just got counterfeited" correct? I know 100% of the time I roll what I suspect is the best hand the same as I do a bluff. It is the very thin value bets that I roll differently, like when I bet 2nd pair on the river after turn got checked through and get called by two people, I have a different turn over there, since I am not sure of the outcome. The nuts and the bluff I know the outcome when I am called, I get the pot, or I don't get the pot.
 07-20-2009, 01:14 PM #725 lolmitHE veteran   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,952 Re: July Low-Content Thread I almost never say anything and always turn my hand over the same way. I think avoiding the declaring part just keeps my can of worms closed. I also require my opponents cards to speak. Never fast roll as the caller.

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