Jacks for Three Bets - Page 10 - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

In two round draw poker and no limit holdem move ins, slightly looser than good players will turn slightly profitable opens into unprofitable ones in virtually all cases. That's just logic. The syndrome obviously weakens or reverses as stacks get deeper and there is more money to be bet later on in the hand.

We are only talking about limit holdem and only AJ UTG. If it wins in tough games it's just not possible to lose in easier ones.

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06-16-2016 , 03:02 AM

#227

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Here's the worst case scenario in a soft game, we open AJo UTG and get 3 bet by 88. Not a huge deal, easily offset by times the have KJo and makes us money against our overall range when they show up with 88 here.

There's just no scenario in the easy game where we can take the worst of it that wasn't already accounted for by our win rate in the tougher game.

There is a small excretion for stuff like we open UTG, expert 3 bets and some guy caps dark, stuff like that, but we end up with massive overlay cs 3rd player to Make up for equity disadvantage.

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06-16-2016 , 03:07 AM

#228

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Here is my simplified position. AJ makes a lot of money when people cold call with Jt, JQ, JK AT and suited aces. If it makes money in games where nobody plays those hands hen yes we can be certain it will make more money when we are in games where people now cold call with those hands

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't understand how anybody can disagree with this. You can disagree with my claim that AJo is a winner JJ tough games UTG, but like be said not one Oerson has produced a single shred of evidence supporting that notion

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06-16-2016 , 03:52 AM

#229

La Peste

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 8,028

Ok, so I have 8000 hours at 20/40. I am logging $40/hr, at 20/40, as a prop. $50/hr over the last two years. Zero game selection and mostly propped up games, and I rarely change seats just because I don't want to be that guy. UTG I open any suited ace, 55, KJo, 76s+. Sometimes I tighten up a little because of game conditions, but you guys are nits.

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06-16-2016 , 04:07 AM

#230

La Peste

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 8,028

Also Mason, you don't need to sign your posts MM. We know its you.

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06-16-2016 , 10:01 AM

#231

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't understand how anybody can disagree with this.

I don't think he does.

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06-16-2016 , 01:42 PM

#232

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

I am saying that in poker games in general if you are at the bottom of your early position opening range against tough opponents you make a small profit because you sometimes steal the antes/blinds and sometimes get head up against them in position. That includes AJ if it is indeed profitable. (Most certainly AJ is a small loser in tough games if you take out those hands and look only at the hands where it gets played with from behind.)

Reducing your chances of stealing or being heads up in position because they will play slightly more hands, must hurt you except maybe where the extra hands they play just happen to be the ones you dominate.

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06-16-2016 , 02:00 PM

#233

Montrealcorp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

(Most certainly AJ is a small loser in tough games if you take out those hands and look only at the hands where it gets played with from behind.)

Reducing your chances of stealing or being heads up in position because they will play slightly more hands, must hurt you except maybe where the extra hands they play just happen to be the ones you dominate.

Maybe so.

But people who plays bad hands pf and c/c raise like KJ,QJ,JT etc vs UTG open, usually they should make big mistakes as well postflop , would you agree ?
regardless if JL has AJ or not.

While JL would make tiny mistake postflop with AJ vs tough opposition i suppose.

Hence he should still make more money postflop.

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06-16-2016 , 03:12 PM

#234

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Would you rather steal the blinds me get cold called by the following range (22-88, A2o-ATo, A2s-ATs, K9o+, JTo and suited crap

Go to your database, filter for AJo UTG and remove all hands where opponents have 99+, AJs, AQo and I'll bet we win > .75 bets per hand

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06-16-2016 , 03:49 PM

#235

NedSchneebly

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 310

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Go to your database, filter for AJo UTG and remove all hands where opponents have 99+, AJs, AQo and I'll bet we win > .75 bets per hand

I Call

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06-16-2016 , 04:18 PM

#236

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Would you rather steal the blinds me get cold called by the following range (22-88, A2o-ATo, A2s-ATs, K9o+, JTo and suited crap

In the games I play it's only the occasional bad player who calls an UTG raiser with A2o-ATo, A2s-A8s, K9o+, QJo, JTo.

MM

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06-16-2016 , 04:29 PM

#237

callipygian

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

except maybe where the extra hands they play just happen to be the ones you dominate.

For clarity, why don't you list out all these rare gems of hands that a bad player might coldcall which are dominated by AJ.

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06-16-2016 , 05:07 PM

#238

Jon_locke

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by NedSchneebly

I Call

Do you want to bet on this? I haven't looked but I would be willing to

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06-16-2016 , 05:10 PM

#239

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

In the games I play it's only the occasional bad player who calls an UTG raiser with A2o-ATo, A2s-A8s, K9o+, QJo, JTo.

MM

How often it happens is irrelevant (although I think it's basically every hand in 20-40). All that matters is he frequency is higher in a live 20 game than an online game and to David's point when it does happen that we can expect to win more money than had they folded pre floo

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06-16-2016 , 05:15 PM

#240

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

I only play part time, but when I do play at The Bellagio it's almost always at 9:00 pm or later when the games are best and virtually no one plays today as you describe. A number of years ago there were players like this but they're long gone.

MM

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06-16-2016 , 05:17 PM

#241

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Do you want to bet on this? I haven't looked but I would be willing to

FWIW I think he's preying on the fact that you don't proofread your posts.

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06-16-2016 , 05:19 PM

#242

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

virtually no one plays today as you describe

But is it greater than online games?

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06-16-2016 , 05:44 PM

#243

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

I won't argue with you on this because I don't play in those games. I can only speak to my games where I think you are more likely to get cold called by one of those hands (or worse) than you are to steal ghe blinds and I don't even think it's close.

But like I said I may play in much better games.

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06-16-2016 , 06:14 PM

#244

jdr0317

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FTR, last time I played 20 at Bellagio was also a night game, and 4-5 way pots were pretty much the norm. I was only at the table for an hour or so before getting called to the 40, though.

Mason obviously has much more time in these games than I do, so I won't say he's wrong, but I'd be shocked if hands like QJo and A4s weren't in people's ranges in a lot of spots where he says they aren't. I know at 40, I was getting three bet by players who showed down Ax hands that aren't even in my opening range.

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06-16-2016 , 06:31 PM

#245

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdr0317

Mason obviously has much more time in these games than I do, so I won't say he's wrong, but I'd be shocked if hands like QJo and A4s weren't in people's ranges in a lot of spots where he says they aren't. I know at 40, I was getting three bet by players who showed down Ax hands that aren't even in my opening range.

Hi jdr0317:

I don't think I said this. My statement was that they're not calling UTG raisers in a full nine handed ring game with hands like QJo and A4s. That doesn't mean they won't have these hands in their ranges in lots of other places.

Best wishes,
Mason

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06-16-2016 , 06:41 PM

#246

Verona

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 138

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Interesting. The 20 game at the Bellagio must really be bad if people don't play like that when the "games are best".

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06-16-2016 , 06:58 PM

#247

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Most people that play 20/40 aren't showing up to the casino so they can fold JQ or A8s for a single raise.

Unless you find yourself in a game with 9 pros or something.

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06-16-2016 , 07:11 PM

#248

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Most people that play 20/40 aren't showing up to the casino so they can fold JQ or A8s for a single raise.

Unless you find yourself in a game with 9 pros or something.

Don't twist what I'm saying, and that is they do make these folds against an UTG raiser. That doesn't mean they always make these folds.

MM

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06-16-2016 , 07:22 PM

#249

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

There are lots of players that cold call the exact same range on the button vs an UTG raise and a hijack raise alike. Getting dealt JQ is of primary importance, it only costing 3 bets is of second at importance, the raise coming from UTG is least important.

This certainly isn't the case from everyone playing but it's certainly going to be far more common in a live setting than any online game

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06-16-2016 , 07:51 PM

#250

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

We must be in completely different worlds. Almost all players open for a raise UTG with far less hands than they would open on the button. So they're very aware that the position of the opener is important.

So you're claiming that someone who would never open UTG with a hand like QJo will routinely cold call an UTG opener for two bets with that hand. No way.

On the other hand, I do see people opening with hands like KJo (and to a lessor degree with QJo) once a couple of people have passed.

MM

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