Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
I can easily be wrong here and can easily be convinced.
What range of hands do you think an expert player should open in a average live 20-40 - 40-80 game and how much equity do you expect AQo to have vs that range.
There are some games where I fold ATo UTG but most games (40 and below) that's just leaving money on the table. Even against a super narrow range that doesn't include ATo, KJs, 77 we have just under 50% which can still be profitable given blind money and position.
3-betting when you're under 50 percent equity can be fine. The question is how much under 50 percent you should go. This can of course vary depending on the situation, but in general, I don't like going under 48 percent which many good players think is too tight.
Part of the reason for my thinking is that years ago, when I worked for the US Census Bureau, a lot of emphasis was placed on the idea that a good statistician will tend to error on the conservative side, and when I entered the world of gambling, which included poker, I always felt that this was excellent advice.
As for your specific hands, ATo, KJs, 77, even if you're correct, they can only be slightly profitable. If they weren't this discussion wouldn't exist. But there's more to think about than just the play of the particular hand. I have always felt, and have written about this in some detail in the past, that having a tight image in limit hold 'em was quite valuable. For instance, if I bet a weak hand on the turn with the intention of folding if raised and I'm not raised by someone who holds a pretty good hand (and who would normally raise with this hand) that has a lot of value since on occasion I'll draw out. So just focusing on a specific hand in a specific position is not the whole story, and I don't play any of these three hands that you listed UTG in a full ring game. To be specific, I play KJs and 77 in UTG+1, and ATo in UTG+2.
Let me add a little more to this. When people are right to 3-bet your UTG opens with AQo they're going to play automatically against you, especially in a live setting. When they're not correct to do this, they're more likely to make other errors against you latter in the hand, and the majority of these errors will be to your benefit.
This is partly why your notions can not be addressed in a straight forward manner. Even if you could conclusively show that playing 77 was slightly profitable UTG in a full ring game, it doesn't meant that it's the best play.
MM