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Old 04-22-2017, 11:40 PM   #1
jdr0317
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I've run out of bluffs

OL $10/$20, basically the last hand of a 2+ hour game. SB is a Central Euro grinder.

I have A 7

I open BTN, he 3 SB, I call

Flop (7 SB): 7 7 4

He bets, I raise, he three bets, I call

Turn (6.5 BB): 5

He bets, I raise, he calls

River (10.5 BB): 6

He checks.

Do we like:
1) checking back
2) bet/fold
3) bet/call
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Old 04-23-2017, 01:44 AM   #2
SetofJacks
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

I'd go with option 3.
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Old 04-23-2017, 02:13 AM   #3
DonkeyOnTilt
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

I'd lean towards 3. Aside from broadway flushes and 88 and 66, I think you have him here unless you have some more specific read which I assume you'd give if you did. The only option I feel really strongly about is 2 and it is that I don't like it.
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Old 04-23-2017, 08:05 AM   #4
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

I'd call the first flop bet. I like the turn. I'd bet call the river.

Regarding the title:

Quote:
I've run out of bluffs
This may be true, but I don't think it's a big deal. Think about the ev of your whole range and that of your opponent. You probably own a huge share of the existing pot while your opponent's share is small. Improving on a situation that is already very profitable is sometimes impossible; real poker rarely, or never, resembles the (bluffcatchers) vs (nuts + bluffs) scenario that allows the bettor to earn the whole pot in the long run.

Also, if you never raise the flop, then you have more hands that you can attack with on the turn sometimes like A2.
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Old 04-23-2017, 12:13 PM   #5
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
I'd call the first flop bet. I like the turn. I'd bet call the river.

...

Also, if you never raise the flop, then you have more hands that you can attack with on the turn sometimes like A2.
If you never raise flop, you never get in 3 bets on the flop and 2 bets in the turn with your monsters. You have enough all your other 7x hands to delay -- don't minimize your pot in the name of unnecessary balance. The better question is whether to 4b cap, and hope villain still leads turn.

OTOH, if villain will passive and never b/3b pre, never donks turn if we raise, then we do maximize the pot by delaying. We can also free card the hell out of him with flop raises.
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Old 04-23-2017, 12:19 PM   #6
jdr0317
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Lol at calling A7 on the flop for "balance". People are pretty much conditioned to 3 bet overpairs when someone raises 774tt until given reason not to. Not trying to exploit that is criminal.
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Old 04-23-2017, 06:34 PM   #7
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

You think his range is composed primarily of over pairs ?
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Old 04-23-2017, 08:25 PM   #8
jdr0317
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
You think his range is composed primarily of over pairs ?
Don't you?
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:38 PM   #9
DonkeyOnTilt
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

It is the safe assumption that his range is heavily weighted towards overpairs.
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Old 04-24-2017, 04:27 AM   #10
Montrealcorp
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
Don't you?
easy bet river than.

But no for me in response for the non flop raise for balance.
Yeah it's great when they have an overpair but i dont think just because he 3bet us pf it = overpair automatically.
Even more so online.
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Old 04-24-2017, 08:15 AM   #11
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

I don't call the flop because of balance. I do it because I think it's the most profitable line. You should slowplay more when your opponent's range is strong. Maybe I'm wrong and raising the flop is more profitable because of this:

Quote:
People are pretty much conditioned to 3 bet overpairs when someone raises 774tt until given reason not to.
or maybe it's better when they 3 bet their overpairs on the turn, which they may or may not do. If they do, then I still like waiting. If they don't, then I like the flop raise.
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Old 04-24-2017, 09:05 AM   #12
jdr0317
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

That's an even worse reason to slowplay. At least until you and your opponent have a dynamic where you respect his 3 bets pre and he knows it. Against an opponent with more history, sure, I'd wait til the turn with my value range since he should be 2 barreling a lot.

Not to mention his range isn't that strong. About 70-75% overcards.

Also not sure what competent opponent 3 bets turn against the nut line with an overpair on 774-X
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Old 04-24-2017, 09:41 AM   #13
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
You think his range is composed primarily of over pairs ?
Quote:
Don't you?
Quote:
Against an opponent with more history, sure, I'd wait til the turn with my value range since he should be 2 barreling a lot. Not to mention his range isn't that strong. About 70-75% overcards.
This all seems really inconsistent to me. First you suggest that they have a lot of overpairs. Then they have lots of overcards. Then they should 2 barrel a lot, but their range isn't strong. Maybe we put the small blind on very different ranges. I got a 56.44% equity advantage for the small blind, which isn't an insignificant advantage on the flop. I got 58% overcards for the small blind on the flop, many of which are still quite strong on this texture. Slowplaying when your opponent's range is strong is straight out of Further Limit Holdem.

Quote:
Also not sure what competent opponent 3 bets turn against the nut line with an overpair on 774-X
If they don't, then I don't think you're bluffing enough or value raising thin enough on the turn.
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Old 04-24-2017, 11:19 AM   #14
jdr0317
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Bob, I think you're focused way too much on how one is "supposed" to play their range and not how they actually play it . Turn raises are so 7-heavy from generic FL unknown that a hand like KK is closer to a fold than a 3 bet versus a lot of opponent types here. Against someone with a greater handle on my game, I agree slowplaying at a reasonably high frequency is a good idea.

To clarify, I don't think his range is PP heavy on the flop, but his range of value hands is mostly overpairs w/ a scattering of some nutted stuff.
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Old 04-26-2017, 08:30 PM   #15
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Jdr I think you are being kinda results oriented that he 3 bet the flop. Obv once he 3 bets the flop you are thrilled with your line. If he had called flop and check folded turn with QTo but would have double barreled it things look a lot different. I think bob made a good post and delaying makes sense here.
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Old 04-27-2017, 06:39 AM   #16
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
I'd go with option 3.
I agree. There's lots of big pairs here, and air, and it's hard for me to think he has anything but, even after the raise, and the scary board. Checking is far too weak, and bet-folding seems too weak as well, interested in other comments.
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Old 04-27-2017, 07:46 AM   #17
Bob148
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Checking is far too weak, and bet-folding seems too weak as well,
Maybe it's just poor wording on your part, but I consider this type of thinking to be a mental game leak. I could be wrong about bet calling the river, but if so it's merely a poor expected value estimation on my part. I think the ev of bet calling is higher than the ev of bet folding is higher than the ev of checking, all of which are positive values imo.
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Old 04-27-2017, 05:56 PM   #18
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

If villain is capable of c/r air or a pocket pair on the river with that board, bet/call.

If villain is only c/r hands that beat you, bet/fold.

Checking behind is super weak. Villain has played this from the start like an overpair and has that 90+% of the time barring a specific read.
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Old 04-27-2017, 09:30 PM   #19
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
If villain is capable of c/r air or a pocket pair on the river with that board, bet/call.

If villain is only c/r hands that beat you, bet/fold.

Checking behind is super weak. Villain has played this from the start like an overpair and has that 90+% of the time barring a specific read.


If we knew exactly what villain will do with every part of his range poker would be really easy. I do agree checking back would be a mistake though.
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Old 04-28-2017, 11:14 PM   #20
leavesofliberty
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
Maybe it's just poor wording on your part, but I consider this type of thinking to be a mental game leak. I could be wrong about bet calling the river, but if so it's merely a poor expected value estimation on my part. I think the ev of bet calling is higher than the ev of bet folding is higher than the ev of checking, all of which are positive values imo.
I simply try to write with some style. It gets very dry to say evevevev over and over again, no offense. If I fleshed out a game tree w a computer I'd be more willing to say "ev".

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 04-28-2017 at 11:23 PM.
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Old 04-29-2017, 06:49 AM   #21
6MaxLHE
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Re: I've run out of bluffs

B/c. If he has 88/66 he deserves two OTR.
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