Quote:
Originally Posted by Omahaisbetter
I have to ask... given you didn't re-raise pre flop there is no chance he has AQ and is putting you on KQ QJ etc. There is no chance of AK spades in his hand or straight draw/ flush draw combo on turn. There is no chance he has KK also? Finally I would want to see my opponents holdings for future encounters. This is the type of hand that will be insightful and worth a bet, not to mention if you have the best hand occasionally it is a clear call. Most would check call river obv you feel strongly against but I think you would have a hard time finding anyone who thinks folding makes sense. Not to mention it is 4 handed!
I can understand calling river, given that I don't block flush draws and it can never be a big mistake to call in a now large pot, but a few factors you forget are
1) I actually am fairly close to the bottom of my turn 3 betting range (AQ, maybe KQ creeps in) for value
2) i am value heavy when I 3 bet turn. Most of my flop bluffs have a 6 in them, so I'd be calling with those hands against a raise
3) FWIW I've played a lot with this opponent and think he's capable of delay raising river and think he's going to specifically underbluff this card.
So fleshing out my value range may look something like this:
53s
QQ
77
44
Q7
Q6s
Q4s
76s (discounted to 1 combo)
AA
KK
AQ
KQ like 50%
So based on where I am in my range, it's a clear call if I were playing, say, you guys and I was worried about exploitation. After the fact, I still may prefer calling a bit more simply because I do not have a spade in my hand and agree that the fold here may be too heroic, and this particular opponent has some non-ABC tendencies (though this would be incredibly extreme by his standards). However, i haven't come across many non-2+2'rs that manage to have balanced turn R/c river raise ranges