40-80 live

Someone posts in cutoff and checks option. Button raises. Button is a player who I think is a solid pro but one that I haven't played with that much. I don't think he's very familiar with my play either.

SB is bad and cold calls. I 3 bet JJ from big blind. Cutoff folds, button calls, SB calls.

Flop is QJ8 with 2 of a suit. SB checks, I bet, button raises, SB calls, I 3 bet, button 4 bets, we both call.

Turn is an off suit 5. SB checks. What's my plan?

I feel like button's flop play is heavily weighted towards value hands as there aren't many draws that can profitably four bet in that spot. The question is how much action do I want to put in against this range? Check calling seems super weak but I feel like I'm almost always beat if it goes check-raise-3 bet. Obviously folding at any point is out of the question.

I ended up donk-calling, because I thought it looked significantly weaker than check-raising and might induce raises by hands worse than my own, ensuring 2 bets against his 2 pair hands while protecting against 3 bets from his straights and sets of Queens. By donking, I felt I could represent an overpair that is afraid of a free card, because he doesn't know I know he's probably never going to check back the turn. It also has the advantage of potentially facing the SB with 2 bets in what is becoming a fairly big pot.

But donking seems questionable when I think the likelihood of his taking a free card is very small. If I'm confident he's going to bet if I check, does it really make sense for me to bet?

I owe you a more thorough reply, since Ive played a similar hand
At game speed Im donk calling the turn for same reasons

Note: I've never played this high live, so here's some salt: ****

I'd check raise the turn without really considering any other option, so naturally I'm curious to see what others think.

For sure check raising, calling down against 3 bets, donking river on a Q or J and x/r an 8 in the case that we do get 3 bet. T9s is just 4 combos, 88/QJ alone is 6 (I would raise a checked post w/ QJo but not T9o FWIW).

One to note is the third passenger in this hand. Button should be capping AKs, AQs, KTs, and possibly more intending to check back turn if whiffing or a bad card rolls off.

Folds to poster in cutoff who checks and you fold T9o on button? I think that’s crazy.

I would consider a turn check call. So many straight combos.

I imagine a lot of the time I would have actually b3b the turn actually.

I'm with DD and I'm gassing the T9o on the button which does make my combos weighted somewhat to straights here so my b3b could be wrong. I just imagine I woulda banged it in the moment and I gave up folding sets at holdem in spots like this years ago so I woulda paid off a 4 bet/river bet too. Just being honest. Might not be correct

I'd raise JTo FWIW.

This is why we don’t cap the flop, right? Instead intending to raise the turn with all sets/flopped straights/hands that improved on the turn?

Hi Crazy:

There’s a lot going on in this hand. First, since you did 3-bet before the flop, some players would be reluctant to put a raise in without a lot of strength, while with others it won’t matter. However, given your 3-bet they probably expect you to auto-bet flop and turn, so if they were very strong there’s a good chance they would wait to the turn to bet. Also, with a drawing type hand, many aggressive players will take it to four flop bets, especially if that’s the cap, and then take a free card on the turn. So unless I know my opponent well, this looks like a lead turn bet to me.

If your turn lead gets raised, then it’s more likely you’ve run into a player who was looking for lots of action and probably has a big hand. Also, and this is where my perspective differs some from yours, I think a draw is more likely than you do.

Are you suggesting just calling preflop?

No.

I agree with all of this. I b3b in the moment and feel stupid when the board doesn't pair.

Like Mason, I think a draw is extremely likely on the flop and I would lead turn.
If raised, there are plenty of two pair hands (and also 88) your opponent can have to justify a 3-bet.

but also so many draw combos. you have to bet the turn

I'm not a fan of donking the turn as a general strategy. It turns your hand face up. Sure, you prevent a free card play, but it isn't the end of the world. You do lose some value when it happens but you gain tons of info on villains range which lets you play the river close to perfectly, while keeping him in the dark of your range.

So c/r/calldown is my line.

I guess my assumption when the guy caps flop is that he would just barrel off so I’m not losing anything there. You are saying they cap for the free card a lot? I guess that’s def common

the board is QJ8 with a flush draw, it doesn't get much wetter than this

we've bet and raised at every opportunity, the cat is out of the bag. the turn checking through is literally the worst thing that could happen

yea that's what i'm saying. also, if we think this guy is gonna barrel off his draws we still need to c/r the turn if we check. we have a huge equity advantage and sb is still in the hand

We 3! pre and b/3! the flop. We obviously have a hand we're never folding and so villain should never be barreling off unless he's an actual moron.

Yeah, I think I probably discounted draws too much. For some reason, I was thinking KTo would be the primary one but Tx or 9x with a flush draw would also make sense.

Either way, I expect villain is solid so I would rarely expect a turn check back after a flop cap. Four-betting for a "free" card turns your hand face up as a draw and is pretty easily exploited. I just don't see good players doing it often.

My first instinct was to take the check-call line DD suggested but it just felt too weak for the strength of my hand.

I'm bet-calling the turn, for reasons mostly already discussed:

1) Lots of big draws would play the flop the same way button did, and could check back the turn card that doesn't fill the draw. So we should bet.

2) We have a very strong hand, likely ahead of button. So we should bet.

3) If we get raised on the turn, we're getting into a WA/WB situation, but have lots of outs to improve if we're behind. (After the flop and pf action, if button raises turn, I think they are likely to have either a straight, QJ, 88, and possibly but much less likely, QQ or AA. QQ and AA are heavily discounted since no pf cap.) So we should call down a raise unless we improve on the river.

How would you adjust your play to exploit this tendency?

The only hands that make sense to 4 bet on this flop are strong hands that should continue firing the turn or drawing hands with good flop equity that will no longer have such good equity on a blank turn.

Strong players tend to preserve wider ranges where they can to disguise the strength of their hand. Once you have decided to 4 bet the flop, you have already given away significant information about your range. Further dividing it into bets and check backs on the turn is going to make the nature of your holding obvious to anyone who can hand read.

We can generally exploit the tendency to free-card by fast-playing strong hands and slowing down with draws on the flop. With strong hands, we just keep firing in more bets, so every attempt at a free card results in our opponent putting in additional bets as an equity dog. Our draws don't need to bluff the flop or turn anymore because they have hugely profitable river bluffing opportunities after turns are checked back. Based on whether our opponent bets the turn, we can determine whether we need to hit our draw or whether we should bluff the river. And we can take advantage of the turn free card ourselves when we are an equity dog.

Our medium strength hands can still exploit the hands raised as a bluff by loosely 3 betting flops while saving bets against the strong hands that raise us on the turn.

I should note some players attempt to balance a free card play by raising the flop with medium strength hands that attempt to get the right amount of action by transferring normal turn action to additional flop action. The problem with this is they are making assumptions about future play to justify a currently -EV play. This strategy should therefore be exploitable by introducing a donking range on the turn.

never mind, misread hand.

Yeah but at some point value becomes worth more than deception and he may be able to snatch value now with the third player still in before an ugly turn peels off. Any extra value he would be able to get out of you later could just be made now.

I donk/call the turn. I agree with bakku. The turn checking through is huge disaster and I want a bet to go in, and its a cry call if a good player pops you again. I play in games where free carding is pretty common though

I mean his range is monster draws or monster hands. I don't want a draw to check through, and I don't really want to get three bet when I'm probably not doing that well against his four bet for value range