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Old 05-21-2017, 04:56 PM   #51
SetofJacks
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

So you don't want to know if you're read is correct, you just want to know if it's worth calling down if you're 100% positive their range is [AA,KK]?

In that case, no you should not call down.
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:06 PM   #52
OnTheRail15
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish View Post
Can we get spoiler results?

(Is Hero him or her?)
I'll bet sb had KK
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:09 PM   #53
OnTheRail15
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

The read is "someone who is short stacked and may be taking a shot/be underrolled/scared. Also his hands are shaking." Seems iron clad to me.
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:33 PM   #54
CrazyLond
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

grunch: omg don't fold
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Old 05-21-2017, 06:13 PM   #55
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
So you don't want to know if you're read is correct, you just want to know if it's worth calling down if you're 100% positive their range is [AA,KK]?

In that case, no you should not call down.
Around 85%-95% range, I think call flop, maybe converse with the opponent after the flop to gain more info if possible, and fold turn.

Also to expand on the read, I do not think the person was "rolled", but had an income that was dwindling for the month, because did not rebuy, was somewhat quiet and in a defeated state of mind, making the TT+,AK tier possible, but less likely. I know. I know. Criticize from all sides. I am use to it.

Also, person is in late 30s, not a young up-and-comer who's read Ed Miller in my estimation, hence the two tiers and percentages in analysis.

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-21-2017 at 06:40 PM.
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Old 05-22-2017, 05:38 PM   #56
lawdude
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbo View Post
Dunning–Kruger effect
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias wherein persons of low ability suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority derives from the metacognitive inability of low-ability people to recognize their ineptitude, without which they cannot accurately evaluate their actual competence.

As described by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the cognitive bias of illusory superiority results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from external misperception in people of high ability: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others." Hence the analogous corollary to the Dunning–Kruger effect indicates that persons of high-ability underestimate their relative competence, erroneously presuming that tasks that are easy for them to perform are easy for other people too.
Bear in mind that at a typical poker table, you may see anywhere from 4 to 9 people suffering from this.
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Old 05-22-2017, 05:48 PM   #57
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

LOL, in the slight chance you are looking for an answer, I will tell you something about tells and certainty that might help you.

There are a couple of players I have played against in a decade or so of live poker who literally only raise AA pre-flop. I mean, I am certain of it. I've played a lot of hands, and I've seen them show up with KK and AK and QQ at showdowns having limped them, and every time I have seen them raise they had AA. Their post-flop play, by the way, is similarly nitty (only raise the nuts), which correlates with this observation.

Now, if I am absolutely certain of this, in theory I could fold KK to their raise (unless I thought I could profitably set-mine with it, in which case I could play it in the exact same manner that I play small pocket pairs against a tight raiser, with the added caveat that if a flop came AKx, I could fold it (or call down to the river for the jackpot and fold the river)).

All of these things are possible and if I really was certain, I could do all these things.

But I don't. Instead, I might slow down with my KK or QQ or JJ against these persons and not put in raises that I would put in against anyone else, but I still make sure I can get to showdown heads up. Why? Why do I give away money to people I know have aces?

Simple, because I don't really know. I don't know what's going on internally. I don't know if their kid is in the hospital. I don't know if they had 6 straight losing sessions. I don't know what might set them off to tilt, and whether they are on it. I can''t know for sure, and those big pocket pairs are just too valuable to be folding without 100 percent certainty.

And that's my opinion of this hand. You flopped a very strong hand. If you think your opponent's range is super-strong, definitely don't put in raises that you would ordinarily put in against typical players. But you just can't account for sure for tilt, and calling down a strong hand is tilt insurance. And since it's limit, it doesn't cost you very much in the scheme of things.

That's my answer. Having said that, as someone who himself can sometimes be a thorn in the side of better poker players here, you should consider the reaction that people have to your posting style and how you can contribute more constructively.
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