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Old 05-19-2017, 10:51 AM   #1
leavesofliberty
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Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Hero 3-bet w/ KJo v someone who raises about 65% of the time pre in MP. I am in the CO. SB 4-bets. Yikes. To make things worse, Hero picks up a strength tell, shaking hands, from someone who seems short-stacked and is possibly playing under-rolled/scared (the exact MO of someone who will exhibit this tell). MP calls, H calls. Flop 44J two hearts. SB bets, MP folds. It seems criminal to just flat fold the flop. Call down non-scary or muck OTF?

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-19-2017 at 11:07 AM.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:11 AM   #2
avoidthe9to5
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

I'd highly advise that you don't 3bet light if you end up asking questions like this postflop. Lowering the equity of your 3betting range is generally only a good idea if you play postflop well.

call.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:19 AM   #3
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

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Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
I'd highly advise that you don't 3bet light if you end up asking questions like this postflop. Lowering the equity of your 3betting range is generally only a good idea if you play postflop well.

call.
Hero did call down, but it was such a strong tell. SB had KK. Part of playing post flop well includes folding when you are beat.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:23 AM   #4
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Some math, pot is 13 smalls before the flop, 14 after being lead into. 5 small bets in a 14 small bet pot. I think the tell is about 85%-95% accurate. It's hard to know. It is limit so tells are not THAT accurate.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 AA,KK
8910 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
KcJd8.6700%8.6532%0.0337%7713 
AA,KK91.3300%91.3131%0.0337%81363 

Some more maths coming. At 90% here is my equity.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 (AA,KK)@90,(AA-TT,AxKx,AxQx,AxKy,AxQy)@10
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
KcJd28.6989%28.6687%0.0605%172012363 
(AA,KK)@90,(AA-TT,Ax...71.3011%71.2708%0.0605%427625363 

5 to win 19 bets, that's 0.263157895, or 26.3% slightly less than my equity. Very borderline. At 85% it is a clear call.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 (AA,KK)@85,(AA-TT,AxKx,AxQx,AxKy,AxQy)@15
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
KcJd35.0464%35.0110%0.0708%210066425 
(AA,KK)@85,(AA-TT,Ax...64.9536%64.9182%0.0708%389509425 

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-19-2017 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 05-19-2017, 12:40 PM   #5
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Strength tell for sure, but your hand is far, far too good to immediately fold flop. Plus, you never know what kind of "underrolled" guy you're up against. The SB could be a SSHE Ed Miller disciple who took a jon_locke-ian shot at a bigger game after running it up a bit at a smaller game and think TT/AK is the nuts pre, and may blindly value bet TT three streets w/ 0 consideration of his active image. I've seen plenty of players who play like this, who just bet for thin value w/ a bluffing range of 0, and then wonder why they always seem to be beat when the other guy calls them.
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:30 PM   #6
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

I can't imagine not 4 betting TT and blindly value betting 3 streets on J hi board regardless of my image
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:37 PM   #7
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

mmm...yea I mean I almost certainly just press call 3 times here but sometimes really bad live players all but tell you what they have. Online you call down here 1000/1000 times but I could maaaybe find a fold on a brick turn, the paired board obviously hurting my hand. Some guys would never ever EVER 4bet out of the SB then barrel into someone twice with a hand less than Jack top pair with king kicker.
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:44 PM   #8
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

You are far too high in your distribution to fold. I call 3x and bet if checked to.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:16 PM   #9
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Though it was not intended to be a thread about stealing, re-stealing, and adjusting to the re-steal from the small blind, it's worth discussion.

My range re-stealing is going to be somewhat tighter than my stealing range in an unopened pot. My thinking is that if I re-steal too much, then I invite unwelcome adjustment to my play, and if I re-steal too little I am leaving money on the table. The guy is showing hands like 57o, and bluffs, very splashy, and shows no intention of slowing down, so it's somewhat obvious that I am re-raising w/ a wide range of hands here. I might go as far as AXs, KT+,K9s+,44+,A6+, so opponent should be adapting to my re-steal much wider than TT+,AKo, some of the bigger suited connectors, T9s+, but the strength tell makes this unlikely enough to discard as a possibility. I do think my strength read, and range calculation, is accurate.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:23 PM   #10
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Equity dramatically improves w/ an ace in your hand as well as the board not being paired, or having one of the suit for runner-runner flush draw.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:41 PM   #11
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
mmm...yea I mean I almost certainly just press call 3 times here but sometimes really bad live players all but tell you what they have. Online you call down here 1000/1000 times but I could maaaybe find a fold on a brick turn, the paired board obviously hurting my hand. Some guys would never ever EVER 4bet out of the SB then barrel into someone twice with a hand less than Jack top pair with king kicker.
I think folding the turn is an option as I do feel this character was in this category. It's roughly two big bets to win the 7.5 in the pot plus the two big bets from the opponent, which makes 9.5, and the probability of TT/AK is diminished w/ players in this category. However, at the 20/40 game, I think people w this tendency still stomach a bet OTT w TT (though perhaps not AK). All-in-all the numbers w the read dictate a call down I GUESS.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:44 PM   #12
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

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Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
Strength tell for sure, but your hand is far, far too good to immediately fold flop. Plus, you never know what kind of "underrolled" guy you're up against. The SB could be a SSHE Ed Miller disciple who took a jon_locke-ian shot at a bigger game after running it up a bit at a smaller game and think TT/AK is the nuts pre, and may blindly value bet TT three streets w/ 0 consideration of his active image. I've seen plenty of players who play like this, who just bet for thin value w/ a bluffing range of 0, and then wonder why they always seem to be beat when the other guy calls them.
If it's an elderly person the shaking can mean anything, and if it's a young person, it could be a technician who knows what s/he is doing somewhat. Your point is well taken.
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Old 05-19-2017, 04:59 PM   #13
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

If you're so confident that you know his exact range, why did you create this thread? Or were you just looking for 'sick read, good laydown?'
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Old 05-19-2017, 05:03 PM   #14
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Not to pile on but if you're 3b this hand pre you are even further up in your range than usual here. Folding is out of the question as is raising so time to station it up.
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Old 05-19-2017, 09:56 PM   #15
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

PV. So far I have not even said that I played the hand, and have only given my thoughts about what Hero should do. So, no, I thought it was an interesting hand. Hero's an acquaintance and I am confident in the read. And, it's all for the sake of discussion. I honestly don't think it's all that hard to be confident about a read like this.
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Old 05-19-2017, 09:59 PM   #16
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

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Originally Posted by OnTheRail15 View Post
Not to pile on but if you're 3b this hand pre you are even further up in your range than usual here. Folding is out of the question as is raising so time to station it up.
My ranges shift with the tell though so it becomes the bottom of my calling range here given this exact set of circumstances.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:03 PM   #17
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

What's there to discuss? Everyone disagrees with you and you say they're wrong because you know exactly what villain has. That's not a discussion. (Or a thread)
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:10 PM   #18
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

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What's there to discuss? Everyone disagrees with you and you say they're wrong because you know exactly what villain has. That's not a discussion. (Or a thread)
I don't think you read the thread very well, which is your loss. Nobody's forcing you to read it or participate though. I mean, what do you want from me? A refund?
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:15 PM   #19
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Lol. Yes please.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:17 PM   #20
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

I think it just falls into the category of; if folding is correct, then only someone who has played with villain could tell you so.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:38 PM   #21
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
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I think it just falls into the category of; if folding is correct, then only someone who has played with villain could tell you so.
You cant tell me there aren't like 3 or 4 regulars in the foxwoods 20/40 game that you could be about 95% sure would have you beat with this hand on the turn.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:04 PM   #22
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Yeah for sure, but I wouldn't then ask a bunch of people who've never played in the game if my read was correct. And there's no reason to start a thread when you know for sure what your opponent has.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:15 PM   #23
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

It's ok to call and lose. Write it on the blackboard 100 times.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:18 PM   #24
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
I don't think you read the thread very well, which is your loss. Nobody's forcing you to read it or participate though. I mean, what do you want from me? A refund?


Fair warning b4 spoilerz: I don't put the hammer down often, but when you treat other people like this... you get brutal honesty.

Spoiler:

Last edited by avoidthe9to5; 05-19-2017 at 11:29 PM.
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Old 05-20-2017, 01:41 AM   #25
leavesofliberty
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Re: Hero Hate His or Her Hand

Meh, kind'a piling on the irony of labeling someone a nerd on a fairly nerdy forum.

QJ and I think H should muck given reads.

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-20-2017 at 01:51 AM.
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