Quote:
Given the wideness of CDC's range, A7 is near enough the top of your range and beating so much of his that (I think) you simply have to bet the turn.
I'd think that A7 would be at the bottom of PJ's flop 3bet range. I also think that calling down from the flop c/r is waaaay better esp after reading every second post about how CDC is an animal and will put you to a ton of tough decisions
Quote:
Yes, the 8's a bad card, but you've grown the pot enough that your betting range needs to be big enough to include A7.
this doesn't make any sense to me from a poker theory standpoint. I think you are talking about protecting our hand, but there isn't really anything to protect from.
if CDC has a pair he isn't folding, and all of his flopped draws have at least a pair now. even if he was checkraising random overcards (unlikely from most players) most of those picked up a straight draw, ie not folding.
so we can't make him make any FTOP incorrect folds, therefore deciding wether to bet or not depends entirely on our hand's equity vs his range. the flop c/r range from most players is beating us on an 8 turn, so checking behind the turn is best
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not sure whether PJ was joking about preflop, but here is our equity vs CDC's flop c/r assuming he plays every hand preflop and will c/r all draws
Board: 9h 7d 4s
Hand 0: 58.431% { As7s }
Hand 1: 41.569% { 44, A9s, A7s, A4s, K9s, K7s, K4s, Q9s, Q7s, Q4s, J9s-J7s, J4s, T6s+, T4s, 92s+, 84s+, 72s+, 64s+, 54s, 42s+, A9o, A7o, A4o, K9o, K7o, K4o, Q9o, Q7o, Q4o, J9o-J7o, J4o, T6o+, T4o, 92o+, 84o+, 72o+, 64o+, 54o, 42o+ }
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pretty awful turn card
Board: 9h 7d 4s 8c
Hand 0: 41.004% { As7s }
Hand 1: 58.996% { 44, A9s, A7s, A4s, K9s, K7s, K4s, Q9s, Q7s, Q4s, J9s-J7s, J4s, T6s+, T4s, 92s+, 84s+, 72s+, 64s+, 54s, 42s+, A9o, A7o, A4o, K9o, K7o, K4o, Q9o, Q7o, Q4o, J9o-J7o, J4o, T6o+, T4o, 92o+, 84o+, 72o+, 64o+, 54o, 42o+ }
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pretty amazing turn card
Board: 9h 7d 4s 2c
Hand 0: 58.737% { As7s }
Hand 1: 41.263% { 44, A9s, A7s, A4s, K9s, K7s, K4s, Q9s, Q7s, Q4s, J9s-J7s, J4s, T6s+, T4s, 92s+, 84s+, 72s+, 64s+, 54s, 42s+, A9o, A7o, A4o, K9o, K7o, K4o, Q9o, Q7o, Q4o, J9o-J7o, J4o, T6o+, T4o, 92o+, 84o+, 72o+, 64o+, 54o, 42o+ }
so yah. good turn check as played, but just call down from the flop