20/40

Good TAG opens button -3, next in calls, I three bet AKo in the cutoff, button calls. 4 to the flop for 3 bets.

Flop is KQ4r

I bet, only button folds.

Turn is Kr

I bet, TAG now c/r and other guy folds. 3 bet now. Delay?

Do you put hands like KTo, 44, QQ (would he have capped?) into his range?

First question I would ask is if we are an equity favorite.

If 44 is out but KTo is in along with QQ we are 54%

Take out KTo and we are 47%

Based on his play, he was 4 betting OOP even heads up, so I'd remove JJ+ and AK from his range. He certainly can have KQ, KJ, and KTs. Or he could be doing something dumb with a hand I dont want to blow him off.

This is a delay. Villain's range should be KTs, KJs, KQo+, and QQ. I don't a good tag would take c/c c/r line with Queens but who knows. If he's opening wider, I'd re-evaluate if villain is a good tag.

AK and QQ out we are 57 if KTo is out

With KT in we are 65

I’d just hit the turn, same amount with value bets and if he’s going apechit it’s probably with a straight draw and he may not bet the river if missed

The board says take value now but the rest of the situation says delay whatever value you have. Calling gives away some info (you aren't concerned enough about trip kings to fold), but you're IP, his range is narrow/strong enough that he should bet most/all rivers.

Whether you have the value to take or delay is obv a separate question. If I were villain I'd have kr flop with anything interesting and I pretty much have AT if I'm here. So revert to take value now since you don't get spewed at enough if you wait. Most mediocre villains have QQ/44 and generally the weaker kings you dominate that mistakenly think they cant kr flop and some straight draws. So the value is likely there but I think you should wait.

I find it helpful to bucket people by whether they show up with something valuable taking this line on this board. Trapping oop with a big hand is tres mal.

But thread title is a lie or too harsh on yourself

Hand only butchered if you folded or put in way too much action, and I doubt you did either.

Delay or non delay, not much difference imo unless you have immense reliable knowledge on how he plays certain hands on flop and turn and you most likely do not

I’ll let the thread go for a while and then post the rest of the action

Call turn.
Raise river A/K/Q.
Call river J/T/9/4.
Other rivers are closer than people seem to think, imo. If his range on a brick river is KQ/KJ/KTs, then raise/call is worse than call. Raise/fold is an option, but...yikes. Add K9s to that range, and raise/call is pretty much equal to call. If he has KTo in his range or can take this line and call a river raise with something like AQ, then clear river raise, obv.

I would just 3! Now to extract max value from hands weaker than kx

For everyone that wants to put more action in: what range do you think this btn is raising on this turn card?

It’s not the button, he folded. And that was the first question I asked in the second post.

I call the turn. River is Jx and now he checks.

I misread this stuff all of the time on my phone.

Yeah, this makes me want to raise even less.

Yeah, first thing I thought was if we were even a favorite vs his range and so many hands like 44, KTo are right on the border of what a lojack may play I think

ninefinger, once that j hits the turn I just check back

The only value raises I can see a "good TAG" having that we can beat are like KJ and KTs, right? There's only 5 combos of that. KQ and 44 are 6 combos.

Now he might not have 44 in his range, but he also might not have KTs (and might not xr KTs). Also, KQ is over 1/4th of that range (meaning we get 4 bet here...a lot). I just call the raise.

Even though I like a turn call and this is a bad river for us, it also makes no sense for him to check if he rivered a straight somehow or has 44+. I think there's some JTs in here that just paired up, and some KTs that doesn't like itself enough to go for value.

I'd bet fold on this action, mostly because I think it'd be rare for them to check a better hand here and still could have a hand that would call a bet.

Yeah, definitely agree. KT may or may not be in range in first place, and even when it is it might not be xr'd

I think people are underestimating how often btn-3 has kto, k9s... He could also have AQ thinking we are too agg. Adding those skew this easily towards 3b now.

Folding it this size pot just makes me ill and the only two hands I thought I could get value from was KT and maybe K9s

Sure, except I don't always have KTo in my preflop range from BTN -3 and K9s probably wouldn't be a turn xr for me (since it's not doing too hot against bet bet/call of someone like 9fs and really only should be ahead of AQ and AA)

I mean if you can't bring yourself to bet fold it, then yeah I like checking back more than bet calling.

I'd bet/call the river.
Villain has to be just as likely to be pulling some weird double-check-raise bluff as he is to be pulling some weird double-check-raise-for-value.

It's a very uncommon, peculiar line and I would never check back or fold the river. Villain has to be putting us on pretty much exactly AK to do this for value. Which is especially strange if he has Kings full himself.

Your hypothetical range for hero turn range is AQ+? That's way too narrow.

In my experience, unless you have a really strong read on what villain opens, I'd err on the side of it being too wide. So many times I've seen good players open in early positions with JTo, K6s, A8o, etc.

He was actually button-4 if that makes a difference. I agree he could be fairly wide preflop, but his range narrows considerably when he c/r two players on this turn.