wow, there is NO WAY your read is right if the villain plays like this on anything resembling a normal basis:
Quote:
Villain is one of the best LHE players in the area. Aggressive and laggy at the right times and doesn't miss bets.
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River Jo. He c/r.
after you BET the river after having raised the flop and called his turn k/r, what in the world does he put you on? if he thought you would believe he had a flush, the turn call should dissuade him from that line of thought, especially b/c the river was just an offsuit jack.
there's no draws you could have that missed that would be forced to bet to try to win that he could k/r you off of, and there's 0 hands you'd go through all that action with, then bet for value, and now fold to this last bet due to the jack coming on the river.
even the turn k/r isn't great. i queried cepheus and the bot never k/r's AhQx here. it just check calls. it only checkraises: super strong hands, top pair with heart kicker, made flushes, with {QhJs,JdTh,JsTh,JhTs,QhTs,Ah9c and a few others} cepheus k/r's the turn (but remember this is heads up and i had to fudge the preflop action a bit in order to get to this turn) between 15% (Ah9c)-50% (QhTs) of the time.
recursively it seems that removal of the Q is a big deal. and after playing with cepheus's bot query for quite a bit (
http://poker.srv.ualberta.ca/strategy#) it seems card removal is a BIG determinant of what actions it takes on the margin. here, cepheus wants its opponent to have all manner of Q and T-containing hands, which is why it k/rs the Ah9 but not the AhQ nor AhTx nor AxTh.