Quote:
Originally Posted by Abbaddabba
You shouldn't have kings there. You probably raise the flop with it, and you definitely shouldn't bet the river.
If your range pre is so narrow as to only have AQ+ and something around 88+ then 88 (or if you fold 88 pre then JJ) makes a lot more sense as a bluff than KK.
If you bet with KK and both players somehow actually fold, there's a good chance it's because they had 88, JJ, QQ (especially the button).
These hands are a very significant percent of the range of a guy who cold 4bet and then checked back the turn when an ace peeled off. These are the hands you're hoping to get folds from when you bluff. unless you're saying this is a value bet, in which case that seems ... optimistic.
As for which hands to bet/3bet as a bluff, it's not so obvious that AQ is too strong to use as a bluff.
When he raises you should be folding out more than just your bluffs. He's wagering twice as much as you're laying him initially which means you should also be folding the bottom end of your value range.
So if AQ was the absolute bottom of your value range (which it may well be) it would be optimal to fold at least some combos of it.
the question is - is AQ with a spade always lumped in as a bet/call? If the answer is yes, then you should bet/3bet with 88 or JJ with a spade (whichever is the worst pair you show up with).
if your optimal solution is to fold AQ with a spade some fraction of the time though, then it would probably be a superior bet/3bet bluff due to slightly better blockers.
this is all pointless academic gibberish though. you just have to look in his eyes and make the decision as to whether he gots it.
Thanks for the reply. My thoughts: What hands do we get to the river this way that we can bet (both value and bluffs) but not 3-bet for value?
Value: all AK, AQ, AJ (KK and QQ are possible v-bets, but I assume hero is betting into bu on flop, or c-r on flop).
Bluffs: Our total value combos are the 48 AK,AQ,AJ above, along with KQss, JQss, KJss. We're laying villain 6:5 to 1, so, to balance our 51 value combos, we need 8.5 bluffs, distributed some % of the time around 88, 77, and offsuit broadways with a spade.
When we 3-bet the river, we're laying villain ~11:1. We have 3 value combos, so we need (1/12)*3 = .25 bluffs, which I assume means we'll have to select a hand from the above range that we bluff 1/4 of the time (or two hands, each of which we bluff 1/8 of the time, etc.). Given that a Q appears only once in his potential flush holdings, but Ks and Js appear twice, we should be bluffing with hands with those blockers (indifferent between the two) so, basically, AxKs, AxJs, each 1/8 of the time.
If my math/logic is off, I'd love some feedback.
Also, full disclosure: I was actually the villain in this hand, and had Th9h. I called the three-bet like the payoff wizard I am and was shown JsQs. Afterwards, I was trying to think of what bluffs she could possibly have had, which prompted me to post this. Feel free to tear me a new one pre-flop (or on the turn?), but on the bu against a liberal 3-bet isolator and with a good image, I think it's a fine play.