Hey everyone,

I used to post here somewhat regularly, but I took a break from poker and have a new account now. I'm a serious rec. player, but definitely have some rust. I played a 6-hr session a couple nights ago, and a couple hands stood out that I'll be posting.


My image: TAG, though I've shown a couple bluffs in HU pots (BvB and Bu vs BB).
OTTH:

8-handed. LAG raises UTG (3-bet HJ with A5o on BU; coldcalled UTG raise on BU w/ K8s, etc.). I 3-bet AdQs next in. Seemingly winning TAG caps on button. LAG calls, I call.

Flop: Ts2c3h
Check, check, bet, call, call.

Turn: As
check, check, check

River: 9s
check, bet, raise, fold... I 3-bet...

I'm bluffing here. The only hands villain can have here are 99, a weirdly played T9s, and KJs. My logic is that if villain is a thinking player, he'll fold 99 and T9s often enough to make this bluff profitable. On a more theoretical level: We need some bluffs in our range here, right? If you're not 3-bet bluffing here, what, if anything, are you taking this line with and bluffing on the river?

Maybe he raise trying to rep T9s/99/KJs to get you to fold AJ/Aq. And now there a non zero chance that he will give you that disgusting look like he making a sick fold. And you give him that grin like you had the nut but inside you felt like you made a sick bluff.

The pot is so inflated at this point that I wouldn’t expect villain to fold a two pair or better hand at least in LA. I’m a call monkey in spots like this and I don’t think long term decisions like this will make a big difference in your overall results.

I’m trying to imagine someone folding with a set in this spot and I just can’t. T9s has to be discounted. Assuming you decide not to bluff are you folding here?

I realize I suck at putting my view point across sometime. The time that you succeed it will be because he turn JJ/QQ/KK into a bluff. And it an awesome bluff raise by him because you even think about turning AQ into a bluff which means you don't think it good enough to call and he never bluffing? Majority of the time that he has two pair/set he going gain +ev. Unless you think he will not turn JJ/QQ/KK into bluff but will raise/fold T9s/99.

This is a good post but I don’t think a live full ring tag is cold capping T9s here often though maybe the 4bet cap loosens things up. Cali players can tell me if I’m off base.

I’ve never played this game but it sounds spewy to me.

Seems like if we must do this, we should use KsK. Folding an ace when he reps so little really doesn't appeal to me.

I do this all the time against JDR... works like a charm

lead turn

You shouldn't have kings there. You probably raise the flop with it, and you definitely shouldn't bet the river.

If your range pre is so narrow as to only have AQ+ and something around 88+ then 88 (or if you fold 88 pre then JJ) makes a lot more sense as a bluff than KK.

If you bet with KK and both players somehow actually fold, there's a good chance it's because they had 88, JJ, QQ (especially the button).

These hands are a very significant percent of the range of a guy who cold 4bet and then checked back the turn when an ace peeled off. These are the hands you're hoping to get folds from when you bluff. unless you're saying this is a value bet, in which case that seems ... optimistic.


As for which hands to bet/3bet as a bluff, it's not so obvious that AQ is too strong to use as a bluff.

When he raises you should be folding out more than just your bluffs. He's wagering twice as much as you're laying him initially which means you should also be folding the bottom end of your value range.

So if AQ was the absolute bottom of your value range (which it may well be) it would be optimal to fold at least some combos of it.

the question is - is AQ with a spade always lumped in as a bet/call? If the answer is yes, then you should bet/3bet with 88 or JJ with a spade (whichever is the worst pair you show up with).

if your optimal solution is to fold AQ with a spade some fraction of the time though, then it would probably be a superior bet/3bet bluff due to slightly better blockers.


this is all pointless academic gibberish though. you just have to look in his eyes and make the decision as to whether he gots it.

Thanks for the reply. My thoughts: What hands do we get to the river this way that we can bet (both value and bluffs) but not 3-bet for value?

Value: all AK, AQ, AJ (KK and QQ are possible v-bets, but I assume hero is betting into bu on flop, or c-r on flop).
Bluffs: Our total value combos are the 48 AK,AQ,AJ above, along with KQss, JQss, KJss. We're laying villain 6:5 to 1, so, to balance our 51 value combos, we need 8.5 bluffs, distributed some % of the time around 88, 77, and offsuit broadways with a spade.

When we 3-bet the river, we're laying villain ~11:1. We have 3 value combos, so we need (1/12)*3 = .25 bluffs, which I assume means we'll have to select a hand from the above range that we bluff 1/4 of the time (or two hands, each of which we bluff 1/8 of the time, etc.). Given that a Q appears only once in his potential flush holdings, but Ks and Js appear twice, we should be bluffing with hands with those blockers (indifferent between the two) so, basically, AxKs, AxJs, each 1/8 of the time.

If my math/logic is off, I'd love some feedback.

Also, full disclosure: I was actually the villain in this hand, and had Th9h. I called the three-bet like the payoff wizard I am and was shown JsQs. Afterwards, I was trying to think of what bluffs she could possibly have had, which prompted me to post this. Feel free to tear me a new one pre-flop (or on the turn?), but on the bu against a liberal 3-bet isolator and with a good image, I think it's a fine play.

This is one of those spots where you think you're being smart because you have the flush blocker, but you're playing yes limit hold'em and he's going to call one more bet if he has you beat.

With significant history you might be able to make this play, but not against a mostly unknown.

The more I think about it the more irrelevant the flush blockers are.

Nobody cold 4bets a suited broadway and checks back a combo draw.

The guy in his (or your) shoes should usually have 99 and occasionally something like T9s or A9s.

As utg+1 you probably shouldn't even have 9x anything so pretty much any bet that isn't good enough to call the raise would be a theoretically sound bet/3bet bluff. And yet should almost never be done.

Your preflop play is super bad, especially if you're going to **** up the river like you did.

i think a weirdly played QsQx/KsKx makes the most sense to b3b bluff, because maybe villain can have some weirdly played hand that beats QQ/KK

if u dont think u get to the river with QQ/KK, im not sure it's possible to practically bluff a forth of a combo

First of all i do not know the dynimic of this table but the you cant really call someone LAG based on 2 hands played which one of them a lot of players play the same(the 3bet from button vs hj with a5)...
Secondly , no you dont need bluffs in thats spot like you dont need 5bets bluffs ever, you may have some bluffs there but its so hard to pull off and probably wont work unless you use a ridicouls betting amount and even though it will be so hard to build a correct range for that betting amount so overall no dont bluff there if he got you beat hell probably call and btw you absoulotly dont need a bluffing range for rivers 3bets

I think the answer lies in your estimation of your chances of success with your river re-raise bluff? The pot contains $1360 at the moment you're contemplating a bluff. Your risking $240 to win $1360. Your pot odds are 5.6 -1. I totally understand your logic and reasoning and i am in agreement with your read here of 99, but I think the best frquency at which you could hope for a fold here would be around 10% of the time or less, therefore your bluff would not be profitable. If you think your bluff works 15% of the time or better than you break even at 15% and profit anything above that. I typically play $80/$160 and in my game against similarly thinking opponents i really can't see anyone folding here very often...They all have the Daniel Negreanu mindset, in that they "know" what you have, but they still call...lol.

Totally not understanding that river play.

Do you think he's laying down AK or two pair there? To you, guy who has actually shown bluffs?

The question is NOT whether you should 3-bet here. The question is whether you call the river raise. An argument exists for folding, but calling is also okay, given the weird way the whole hand went down, and the guy's LAGgy play.

Most of the time you're going to get a temporary sigh from him, as he calls his 99 and bemoans his luck in running into a backdoor flush, and then a big smile on his face when he sees you have AQ and spewed off a 3rd bet to him.

Edit: Now I just read your second post, and apparently you lied to us about having AQ, but in reality had T9 two pair, and lost to a backdoor flush? Are you kidding me? Why are you posting false hand histories, bro?

because he was considering folding to the 3bet and wanted to see whether anyone would be bold enough to advocate for a bluff in that spot. and no one did.

what he failed to consider though is that it may actually be a brilliant opportunity for a 4bet bluff.