I'm simply stating that a bet on the river can sometimes get called by a tilty KJ/QJ or even an AT. But we'd be value owning ourselves a fair amount, so not betting here misses trivial amounts of value.

What's more important is that when a bet is thin to begin with for value, calling the raise is an abomination. There's no such thing as a good price for 0% equity.

But yeah thinking about it, KQ and diamonds got there so I just wanna take my hand to showdown.


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We agree on this

I would think folding the best hand getting >10:1 is more of an abomination


This assumes villain is bluffing 0% of the time. In my games there are many players this is true of. Some not 100% true. And some, albeit very few, who would gladly turn something like KT into a check-raise bluff v. a value happy opponent who would snap fold and feel good about it

Yes. A LOT got there including flushes, straights, and some two pairs. I'm all for squeaking out value but this is a spot where I'm willing to accept whatever equity top pair still has without complicating matters on such a gnarly river card.

Fwiw we also agree on this.. I don't like bet-call either and would prefer a 3 bet hoping villain mistakenly folds two pairs or even a straight. Calling seems the worst way to handle a raise

What possible hands can villain play this way that is a river c/r bluff?

I'm probably making a fool of myself but I'd definitely use some portion of my KT, QT, Q9, to c/r the river in order to exploit someone I thought capable of bet-folding assuming I somehow limped in and donked the flop.

There's just no truth to this. If someone is bluffing too much you can safely call with pretty much your entire value betting range.


Also wrong.

Maybe you would, but check-raise bluffs on the river are very rare. Think someone would be likely to be thinking that hard to make that play, but thinks little enough to be open limping from MP?

Yeah, plenty of fish are capable of bluffing scary river cards. It's not exclusive to great players.

Of course the fish that do it are likely to do it excessively, but it's not like this is a slam dunk fold cuz all you know is that he's tightish and an open limper.

A lot of MP range is QJ, KJ. I bet/call and feel pretty good about it. Remembering playing a few hands against Cepheus in this spot, a x/r with top pair turned into a bluff is not all that unordinary and I imagine this would be amplified in SoCal games. But then again haven't played out west in a few years but I imagine some players are adopting river x/r bluffing lines even at 20/40.

It’s not the scoreboard based upon the total in his range, take that range you came up with and figure how many you beat assuming he calls

I think you should fire river. That board is super scary on the river (both diamonds AND a one card straight), so he's probably firing if he hit either one of those. Check-raising that is something more done by good players who think you'll value bet if they check. Fish tend to worry that you will be scared and check behind.

Too good of a chance he has KJ/QJ or some trash suited (non diamond) jack.

Open limpers are not ones to make tight folds, either. They're constantly of the belief that aggro players are trying to run them off hands.

You will value own yourself at times here, but you should get a call with a worse hand a lot more often.

KJ/QJ is probably a better cbet then AJ. Having Ad would be nicer too.

Do you mean cbet on the flop or on the river?

I think he's suggesting to take a free showdown with top kicker and b/f weaker kickers?

He's saying you're more likely to get value from 1 pair hands if you have KJ/QJ because you don't block Ax and villain never has AJ/KJ/QJ

Villain often has kj and qj, no?

yeah i forgot the flop action, havent opened this thread in a while.

but the point stands... if you have AJ he has 25% fewer combos of AT/A4 (maybe even A9/A7 or ace high if he's getting crazy)

Grunching: Check back the turn and raise the river.

Check while they are still drawing and then raise when everything gets there?

Yet he might c-bet anything limping and he probably has a stronger type hand.