You also don't know exactly but what the other two have. You've got to give them a little something here on this type of flop. I get the idea of seeing what BB does on future streets, but I think the decision is best made assuming she bets 100 percent of turns.
Yeah, I agree. I think it's close, but you should assume it's coming on all streets and weigh the pot like AB suggested. Perhaps slightly less than 100% like jdr suggests. The fact that she's a woman makes me a lot less likely to call down. It depends on the woman of course, but unknown woman definitely folding.
When you assume some diamonds are out and there is a chance of getting 3 bet, not enough for this play.
We're 4 handed. You're going to get 3 calls to the x/raise a lot in this situation. And in any situation where you get 3 calls, the Kd is going to have more than it's fair share of equity.
On getting to showdown. I think we're overlooking the possibility that Dude A and Dude B has a better ace or sandbagging a flush. I'm fine with folding on the flop or call. If calling just know there aren't any good turns other than an Ace and non-diamond ten. If the board bricks on the turn and lady bets I think that's a clear fold.
The way you describe the players, I probably just dump and find a better spot.
Certainly arguments for calling and reevaluating the turn, but accept the fact one of the players behind you could be slowplaying a flush and should repop if you call.
Maybe if a diamond hits and the lady checks I turn my hand into a bluff, but that seems like a losing fishy play.
If a ace or ten comes and she leads into me, I still can't raise and stuck calling all bets.
Accepting that I am calling all bets seems a bit fishy to me as well.
So, my opinion, most optimal play is just conceding. Second is calling and reevaluating the turn and see if you can pick up tells if diamond turns, or if lady checks on a non diamond card. Would still be a bit hard for me to bet on her check with two players behind if I didn't improve an a or 10. Even the 4 I don't love, as I have found that people are now overvaluing ace wheel cards (thank you Gavin Smith for that gift of really poor poker advice!) and you are tied with all other aces.
Very likely to be behind and many cards that are just a disaster for your hand. But, peeling one with top pair doesn't seem like a massive mistake to me for one small bet in a big pot.
Checking the flop is certainly a decision you could have made and would be reasonable, but then you are completely in the dark and left in some diamonds that may have folded and you have deliberately induced your opponents to bluff. I check strong holdings like that a lot on the turn in position knowing I am 100% calling the river, deliberately inducing a bluff which wins me an extra bet when they have crap and saves me when they are stronger. I don't like inducing bluffs on the flop.
But, if you can pick up tells, have a solid read on your opponents, I think you may be able to turn your hand into a bluff if a diamond turns. Is a high variance play, and would only advise it if game conditions are perfect. But, as you describe the game, is possible both players fold behind you to the check raise. And, you can certainly bluff the snug old man if he doesn't have q of diamonds or better on turn. Also, if lady is tight, she may just give up. If unknown player tags along, will cause problems. Also, if you make this move, you must bet the river to sell the story if the board doesn't pair, cause they probably call with sets and two pair hands that can improve to boats on the turn.
Last edited by pokerchris; 10-24-2017 at 06:21 PM.
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