$20-$40 limit holdem game.

I raise in the cutoff with AdQd first in.

SB three bets. SB is weak player, whose three bet range is very narrow. AA-KK. BB calls three bets. He is on a complete tilt and his range is probably in the top 40% of hands.

Flop is Kd Jd 9h. SB bets. BB and I call.

Turn is 6s. SB bets. BB. raises and I ?

Additional information.

1. Five bet cap
2. SB will three bet with KK
3. BB will likely four bet
4. If BB four bets SB will five bet
5. Casino is running a high hand promotion . Royal flush is worth $300

Tried to reply but hit refresh.

You have 25% to hit. Assume 2.5 bets go in on the turn (average between 3 and 2 since AA, and KK are approximately equally likely with card removal, though perhaps KK is slightly more likely than AA with the third player more likely to contain an ace than a king), you're risking 2.5 BB to win 11 BB... 5BB from the other players on the turn, and 6BB already in there... 2.5*4 = 10 < 11, ergo call.

Also, the 300 is 7.5bb, and only hit if your one outer hits, which is 1/44, so it's a very small fraction, but it comes to ~0.17bb, so the pot should be adjusted accordingly as well as rake.

add: Implied odds as well, and you can expect safely at least one bet on the river. So, all the more reason to call.

If you're confident tilty is going along for the ride on the flop, you can raise/cap the flop. But all things being equal, I like calling on the flop, because you don't know if the third guy is going to leave.

should have raised the flop to freeze the action.

And if didn't freeze, I would 4 bet and punish the tilty guy.

If you froze the action with a flop raise I would bet if you think the tilty guy would fold under pairs. If not, check and see a river.

you have a royal flush draw and an overcard on the flop. If not going to raise that draw, what draws do you raise?

Your mistake was on the flop. Big blind re raises, he is spewey but not a moron? He is never folding.

Call and hit draw.

So raise a draw into, what OP says, is a range that is 50% overpair and 50% top set. Sounds like a fantastic strategy.

Of course. I have postion on the flop. May freeze the action.

And my draw is crazy good.

if I think he only has Aces of kings, why I call his re raise in the first place?

to flop a straight or flush? If my read is that good, just dump pre.

Look, it is limit holdem. Go crazy on good hands and good draws.

Not a game you can get stacked.

Be surprised. Sometimes they have 7's and fold. Sometimes they have 7's and call you down.

Got gut shot and nut flush draw, I go crazy on flop, reevalute on turn. Especially if there are players in the middle.

If he has 3 kings, you might make it and tilt him!

Play is to raise to the max on the flop. Check behind on turn.

if they lead tun, call all bets.

Make it on river, win many two bets from both players. if make flush on paired board, cry call all bets.

and if you miss, nod your head and tell them how good they play and go on to the next one.

No, the play is to put as little $ in as possible when we don't have a hand that beats our opponent and as much as possible when we do. How is isolating ourselves with 40% equity the optimal solution?

FWIW my standard is to raise this hand as our draw is strong, but OPs read states that this would be spew. We have no fold equity.

Justifying plays because "you can't get stacked" is fishy logic. Either a play is optimal or it isn't, and the repercussions around suboptimal play is irrelevant to the overall math of the scenario.

If our opponents are bad enough that they'll just call the raise w/ QT or KK and let us take our freebie, then sure, but there's nothing in the OP that suggests that's true. Plus, what else are you raising on this flop besides draws, KK and QT, given OP's description?

This hand is somewhat straightforward as far as hands go at middle limit.

Raising the flop is likely going to knock the third guy out on the flop, and leave you alone with a hand that beats your range. Raising the flop is bad for these reasons. So, that leaves calling with the power draw.

Folding the turn is bad, because you still have enough pot odds to call. Raising is bad as it virtually never wins the pot and puts more money in from behind. That leaves calling, and the other choices aren't even close.

The only real question is whether or not you still call if an ace peels the river, and you stand by your read and fold, or cry call. I suppose you just fold it, and be happy you're playing against a predictable opponent.

Not that it matters the 10d hit the river. The BB had Jh6h so he turned two pair. The SB flopped a set of Kings. The SB Three bet and the BB just called on the turn. Both players checked the river.

I folded not wanting to pay $200 for my draw. Had I stayed I would have won a very big pot plus the royal flush bonus

How much was the royal flush bonus?

Folding turn is terrible. You have a quarter of the deck, you need to see the river. Worst case scenario are your 10 outs and you stick 4 bets in to win the 6 in the middle and 8 your opponents put in (3.5:1). So even money on your draw with the ability to play rivers perfect (win bets when you get there and lose no bets when you don't).

If I have to pay five bets on the turn is it still a break even play?

C'mon, you can do this math. It'd be 5 to win the 6 + the 5 each from the other 2 players, ... and you can solve it.

Yeah I mean first off it seems incredibly faulty to assume BB would just auto 4 bet his whatever (since he didn't 4 bet his two pair). Second off, even if we do get whipsawed (which means we can for sure account for two of the 3 missing kings), we'd be getting 3.2:1 on our whipsaw w/ 10 outs and 44 unknown cards, or 3.4:1. Then if we get there, we collect 2 bets like every time, so our true price is 3.6:1, meaning we're making money even if this goes the full 5 bets.

OP, you went for a low variance route and now you're trying too much to rationalize it, Even our worst case scenario indicates you can pay the full 5 bets and make money. Since you have a 50% chance of not paying any more than 2 bets (SB has AA), we can feel comfortable knowing the money is going in good.

Give me like T8s with the same action and this decision gets closer, and maybe we can consider folding our draw.

Just don't fold.

edit: Just barfed when I saw the results. Gross! I'd raise the flop but the reasons for just calling down are good. Don't think of it as calling $200 to hit your draw, that's the stinkin thinkin

My take as well. Straight-forward call to hit the draw. On average it should be somewhere around 2.5 bets, maybe 2.6 because of card removal even given the narrow read of AA,KK. And, you should get at least one bet on the river for implied odds at a bare minimum. I'd put it at about 1.5 bets or more because of double pay-offs in a large pot. And, that's conservative.

OP, practice these kinds of situations with pen and paper in the future. It'll pay dividends.

Calculating pot odds:

Preflop: 9 small bets.
Flop: 3 small bets.
Total small bets = 12 small bets or 6 large bets.
Turn: Additional bets from your opponents: 4 + 4 = 8.
Turn Total bets: 14 ( 6 + 8)
Pot Odds you have: 14 divided by 4 (bets you need to put in) = 3.5:1

Good cards = 7 diamonds (excluding 9D and 6D which pair the board) plus 3 tens = 10 good cards.

Bad cards = 36 cards (46 total cards unseen minus good cards).

Pot odds needed = 36 divided by 10 = 3.6:1

You are getting 3.5 and need 3.6. But in addition you will collect more bets if you hit (implied odds) and have the royal flush bonus.