Only interesting hand from my Commerce session. I open AT from UTG+2, dude A calls two spots over, Dude B calls the button, Lady defends her big blind.

Dude A is one million years old and playing snug. He cold called a lag's raise earlier with AT suited.

Dude B just sat down.

Lady I played with a bunch back in the day. She is very tight unless she is on tilt.

Flop comes AJ4 all

I bet, both dudes call, lady check/raises

I call down and expect to lose.

I fold now and am happy about it. I think calling is -EV. Lady checkraised the field of 3 dudes, .. it's a 4 way pot, your AT is probably already behind. Lady probably has 9d8d but could also have 44 or any flush. You'd have to get to showdown without another diamond coming, and without anyone hitting 2pr with their Ax I am folding the flop and for me it's not close.

Seems like only possible hands lady can have where you shouldn't fold are like AsTd and KdX. But she might not check raise any of those, even KdQs. Since you're likely beat 100% by lady, and possible by the old man behind you, it seems like a really easy fold. With the Td in your hand you'd see the river. Even AhQh here is probably a fold and AhKh is a puke call down.

+1. whether she's ahead or drawing, in either case you want other draws to pad the pot. prtecting against dirty 2 pairs and gutters is worth less than letting them draw and folding is insane.

I am surprised that you think folding is insane.

for this hand though, it seems like one could pokerstove it and get a pretty clear cut answer to solve this. But it boils down to, how often does the lady (and the other 3 guys) already not have you beat, AND also don't draw out on you, .. compared to pot odds, implied pot odds, reverse implied odds etc. I mean if someone wants to figure this stuff out, they probably could,

my intuition tells me it's an easy fold, and that folding now is the highest EV play, and that it's much higher EV than calling or raising by a significant margin.

Folding certainly isn't insane, but the pot is big, we're getting a nice price now, and we really should see a turn card before making any decisions on how far we want to go here. I can still think of some bluffs we can beat, namely a Kd flop xr (especially KdQ or KdT, maybe KdJ).

yesh it is tough because of the 2 players behind but I think it is still a call for 1 bet and see the turn.
I would not fold AQ for sure so AT should be pretty close to a call.

The only question imo is that are we facing a flush ?
We have what , like 13-1 ? I m not sure I can say confidently that it is a flush more than 90% of the time.

I accept to lose 9/10 and it still a call. ( kind like break even)
I don't think I lose 10/10 here.

Anyone like checking flop? Moreso against 2 opponents described as tight.

i thought about it, but don't really see the point. i think c/r'ing r turns would be cool tho (not so much against passives, but yeah).

I'd call the flop and reevaluate the turn.

Checking the flop is an option, but I think there is just enough unimproved showdown value here to make betting superior. We could argue that checking evades this very flop situation as posed in the op, but I think one of two things is happening here:

a) we're drawing dead vs the flop raise, but that means we so rarely get raised on the flop that the effect on our winrate is negligible.

b) we're not drawing dead vs the flop raise, which means that drawing for a small bet on the flop is fine.

Either way, the flop looks like a call to me and I would consider a fold here to be highly exploitive.

Had a very similar spot, I called flop and same person c/red turn again on a brick and had KdQx. I advise at least calling flop.

assuming both fold on the turn to her bet other than you, in the "best case" scenario where the board bricks off and you call down, you're getting a huge immediate price, but only 9:1 to call it all the way down given the board bricks.

but you gotta think about the x*-0.5 + y*-1.5 cost of when you end up folding when either the turn comes a diamond or the river comes a diamond. so you need better than the 9:1 you're being offered given it bricks off. x/y are ~80%/65% so it's not inconsequential (obv ignoring my lazy math here b/c obv it's only -1.5 when it's 1-x, which is already counted, so this is for demonstration purposes only). point is that you're getting worse than 9:1. you're getting, not having done the math, something like <7.5:1 all told, so you CAN make the decision to fold the flop or at least the turn if your plan is to call down if no diamond.

that said, we are getting a pretty high price to simply call the flop and see what happens on the turn in which case we can reassess the odds we're being offered, or can comfortably fold the 20% of the time it comes a diamond.

At game speed, calling 1, assessing the remaining flop action turn card and Lady's action is only a small mistake, but i think a mistake nonetheless.

What ranges can we give everybody on the flop? Unless she's on tilt or very aggro, Lady has a made flush, a set or even AJ, a high percentage of the time, better than 90% of the time. Maybe she has the naked K without an A small % of the time. What can the other dudes have? The ancient guy could have Any big A KxK QxQ JJ AJs gutter like KJ,KQ, etc, something along those lines. maybe 44. Guy on the button may have a wider range. I'm sure I've left out other hands, but the amount of time you are behind Lady plus the amount of time you're behind the dudes together with the times they get there is really high 95%+. You only have top pair, mediocre kicker with maybe only a runner runner draw. 13-1 is a good price, but its not quite good enough.

tight lady check raises into three.
plus if you have history she knows you don't raise with air and that with two broadways you caught a piece of that flop.
TP **** kicker no diamond into the muck and lets orchestrate a better dance for our chips
she has the flush

I think folding flop is not good but auto show down probably isn't either. See the turn.

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Disagree that folding is 'highly' exploitative

We're near the bottom of our range:
Having any diamond is higher in our range than AT.
QQ, KK no diamond should clearly fold this on flop or not bet at all.
Jxs means we block fewer villain AK/AQ, and have generally more equity vs them.

Lady is tight
People play super honest in 3+ and 4+ pots
I'm ok folding flop here. Even considering it shows good awareness.

We opened from early position and got a four way pot. I don't bet fold anything in this spot.

Calling flop intending to fold the turn is just wasting a pure small bet. If she's betting into several people on the flop, the turn isn't going to change things from her perspective. This is not one where you should wait to decide. You should decide now whether you're going to the showdown.

You're drawing dead to the lady so fold.

It's more defensible to call down than to peel and pray here.

I still don't get what peelers are thinking. How is the turn going to change your decision? She bets the turn >98% of the time here. Heart comes, paired board, rag, all bets. This is all the more reason to make your decision now.

Yes, fold now so that KJ scoops the pot unimproved.
/s
Don't fold unless another diamond comes.
Even passive people understand the value of combo draws.

Bet folding top pair to one more small bet on the flop seems like a huge leak.

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People who say we're getting 13:1 are overlooking the subsequent action. Calling down (assuming the dudes fold) we are getting 17:5 in this spot, a little better than 3:1. If the dudes pad the pot it's better than 4:1.

Are we really good here as much as one time in five?

Calling down isn't terribad, but given the reads on the BB, neither is folding.

❤️

You also don't know exactly but what the other two have. You've got to give them a little something here on this type of flop. I get the idea of seeing what BB does on future streets, but I think the decision is best made assuming she bets 100 percent of turns.

FWIW the Bb could be xr this flop with the naked Kd and slow down on some turn cards upon pairing up, or simply change their mind on barreling into 3 people in a spot where someone likely has the ace. We should assume a bet is coming almost always, but not 100%