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Old 12-08-2017, 03:13 PM   #1
Mr. Small Blind
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Capping the Turn

Recently have played some very large pots with 85% or better equity on the turn and just about got it all in with the best of it but have lost these flips to 2-outers and redraws. I often opt to take a lower variance route with certain player types but feel like this is incorrect with the nuts.

Have seen a 2k swing over 2 days of play in 2-100 SL as a result of two hands where I was an 85% or better favorite heading into river. 2k is significant in this game type. All reads were spot on, run bad ensued. Just cannot get these hands to hold. Sets, straights, big pair vs med pair etc.

Part of the thinking is get paid now 'cus not getting paid by brick 5ths.

Looking for some general advice. Pot control with 85% or better or get it in on turns?
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Old 12-08-2017, 03:17 PM   #2
SetofJacks
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Re: Capping the Turn

Keep jamming it in there
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Old 12-08-2017, 04:55 PM   #3
PaulValente
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Re: Capping the Turn

Yeah, I'd jam it in
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Old 12-08-2017, 05:34 PM   #4
jdr0317
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Re: Capping the Turn

I mean what strategy advice do you want here? Is your question "should I keep raising when I have the best of it?" Yes, yes you should.
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Old 12-08-2017, 05:42 PM   #5
PaulValente
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Re: Capping the Turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
I mean what strategy advice do you want here? Is your question "should I keep raising when I have the best of it?" Yes, yes you should.
Standard strategy: post bad beat stories as questions in order to trick people into reading them.
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Old 12-08-2017, 05:44 PM   #6
jdr0317
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Re: Capping the Turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulValente View Post
Standard strategy: post bad beat stories as questions in order to trick people into reading them.

I mean it works in the no limit forums Fwiw.


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Old 12-11-2017, 03:08 AM   #7
gobbo
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Re: Capping the Turn

Try check/raising the flurn.
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Old 12-11-2017, 05:49 AM   #8
Mason Malmuth
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Re: Capping the Turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Small Blind View Post
Recently have played some very large pots with 85% or better equity on the turn and just about got it all in with the best of it but have lost these flips to 2-outers and redraws. I often opt to take a lower variance route with certain player types but feel like this is incorrect with the nuts.

Have seen a 2k swing over 2 days of play in 2-100 SL as a result of two hands where I was an 85% or better favorite heading into river. 2k is significant in this game type. All reads were spot on, run bad ensued. Just cannot get these hands to hold. Sets, straights, big pair vs med pair etc.

Part of the thinking is get paid now 'cus not getting paid by brick 5ths.

Looking for some general advice. Pot control with 85% or better or get it in on turns?
Hi Mr. Small Blind:

I think there's a couple of things you need to realize given your results:

1. It looks like you're talking about very large pots. Thus, if you don't cap the turn, it would only have reduced your $2,000 negative result by a little bit.

2. You're right that cards can come on the river that often can kill the action. An example would be if you flop or turn a nut flush and then a fourth suited card comes on the river. So that's a reason to get it in on the turn

3. On the other hand, sometimes there are strategies available in these big pot situations that will allow you to win the pot more often, but the price for doing this is usually a smaller pot that gets won (when they work). These often involve missing a bet or raise on the flop and then getting that raise in on the turn. However, they usually are best made when your equity is much lower than 85 percent. But perhaps if you described one of these specific hands someone here might suggest a better line than the one you used.

4. Your 85 percent estimate can be fleeting depending on the exact situation. I once watched a heads-up hand that went many bets before the flop which came five-four-trey. One of the raisers had ace-deuce and the other raiser had six-deuce, and the turn and river were blanks. Notice that when the raising started, the player with the ace-deuce probably thought he had at least 85 percent equity, but after enough raises this certainly shouldn't be the case (unless you're against a total maniac).

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 12-13-2017, 09:51 AM   #9
DougL
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Re: Capping the Turn

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Small Blind View Post
Looking for some general advice. Pot control with 85% or better or get it in on turns?
We need some specific hands to really comment.

2-100 spread limit is a strange and sometimes interesting game. They have it here in Colorado, and the game is uncapped. If the effective stacks are $1000, then it can play like a decent sized LHE game once a couple of real bets go in -- the natural desire to make bets relative to the size of the pot is blocked because the $100 cap comes into play. If you're playing 100-200 effective, it is almost a SSNL game.

A small buyin size allows you to make the NL choice for yourself, as you can go all in and let the LHE players play the pot without you. The reverse happens where a guy with a $100 stack can just keep all his equity as you and another $1000 stack play $100 bet limit. If he's got a $400+ chunk of the pot (multiway action PF and flop), your odds actually are impacted due to his big chunk.

85% is what, 7 outs against you? If it is a multiway pot, it is actually hard to have that much of a lock. Multiple 5 outers and a PP might give them 17 outs. Again, since these games don't play with everyone deep and the bet that makes the $2000 pot only required at most $100 calls... If you're a NL player and play this game deep, you're going to experience endless LHE suckouts. That's when you're against decent players. The game will be more profitable and you'll lose to more suckouts if they're worse. You see 5 outs when the winner opens his hand, but the mucked hands held a lot of live outs. Thus, it happens all the time. The 20 outs in the field hit over 40%.

The last turn bet is offering people 19:1 in when you end up with a $2000 pot. In a limit game you can't protect hands with that pot size. If you have 85% equity (7 outs against) or even 67% equity (20 outs against), you still want that last bet to go in.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:31 AM   #10
toohotty
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Re: Capping the Turn

This is the epitome of 2-100 SL vs NLHE, they are not as similar as most think!
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