These questions are really hard to answer, because a lot of the answer depends on you. We can get to that later.
First off, try a variance simulator like this
one. As long as the terms match everywhere, I think you can replace /100 with /HR. So, if you were a long term 1BB/HR winner with a SD of 13BB/HR, a 5% RoR gives you a 243BB roll. That's a really high RoR, and I think most pros either just go huge for BR or use a more conservative 1% or 1.5% roll. You're looking at 350-400BB with my assumed WR and SD. The calculator shows some epic downswings, breakeven stretches, and the "unluckiest 1BB winner" losing after a ridiculous # of hands.
Here's the thing, though. Most people overestimate their WR. Most of us play a while, then we start winning at a good clip. We declare "I've figured out midstakes" and then ignore older data. This biased sample becomes evidence of winning a lot. Let's say you're really a 0.5BB/HR winner. Suddenly, things like 1000BB downers come into play. The 1% RoR bankroll is almost 800BB.
At one time on this forum, there was a thread about how no real winner ever had a losing run of 100BB or something equally nuts. That was before online poker and huge sample sizes showed people reality.
People then played a million hands. Then more. Then people yawned at 800BB downers while playing huge volume in tough games.
Lastly. All the calculators assume you play just as well stuck 200BB as you did the day you moved to Vegas full of confidence and well rested. Mason likes to talk about non-self weighting strategies. All the statistics have weasel words about independent random samples. Why? Because if after loosing 50-100BB in a session, I'm going to have 5 beers and go on tilt to win it back, my likelihood of 300BB downers is way higher than the RoR calculator says. Even without that, many people play worse after 5 losing or breakeven sessions in a row. Your next day's EV can depend on how you did last week, unless you're some former SNE grinder who literally doesn't care about results because he's burned our that part of his brain.
Playing for a living is hard, and I have a lot of respect for people who've pulled it off for a good while.
Last edited by DougL; 11-29-2017 at 11:48 AM.