The SB is laggy pre but does open limp and over limp a lot. He seems to be a decent hand reader. He has made a couple of thin river calls but both times it was against a guy you shouldn't fold to. He probably sees me as a typical TAG.

I open AsQc in LJ, folded to SB who 3 bets, BB folds and I call.....SBs range is any pair, AT+, JTs+, QTs+, KTs+ based on a small sample size....I've seen him 3 bet in a similar spot with 33's. I've seen him 3 bet from BB after a Tight UTG ooen and Tight SB call.

7d8c2h....He bets, I call

7d8c2h3c...He bets, I call

7d8c2h3c9s...He checks.......Does betting make sense here? Maybe he'll fold a small pair.maybe he'll fold AK or AQ. On the flip side, if he is calling with the small pairs and Ace highs I can get value from AJ, AT, A9s etc.

Looking at it from his side of things what should he do with KQ, KJ type hands...bluff the river? Check/fold.

I would probably be suspicious of my bet. Would this board need to be slightly more scary to warrant a bet? Or does the potential for value and the fact that the bluff part doesn't have to work often make it worth it.

I think the question here is do you think he calls a river bet here with AK? I think its most likely he has AK, or maybe 66 or 55. If he bets river I would call, but I really don't know if I bet out river here, it depends on if I think he is calling a river bet. (If I had a pair, I'm for sure betting)

You make no mention of stakes so I'm sorta flying blind.


Since the flop was a rainbow a value bet would be a horrible.

If the flop contained a flush draw a value bet here would be merely bad.

The only two hands with which he can realistically call and lose are A-J and A-T, and if he's sane it's hard to see him calling with either.

Put yourself in his seat. You raised P/F then called the flop and turn. There's almost nothing can you realistically have that loses to A-J ?



Did you ever hear the joke about the guy who tried to swim The English Channel ?

Two thirds of the way across he decided he couldn't make it . . . So he swam back.

The only way a bluff works here is if your opponent is the guy in that joke.

You're looking for him to bet the flop and turn with a pair or A-K, then fold to a non-threatening river with > six big bets in the pot ?

Doesn't seem likely.

*

As for the outcome, his likeliest hand here would seem to be A-K.

I think he bets 4-4, 5-5 or 6-6, as well as all hands that give him top or 2nd pair.

Not sure what he does here with third pair, though it's unlikely he has it (A/7s for a three bets P/F ? Possible, but thin.)

Meanwhile, for some odd reason I'm thinking that river hit him right between the eyes, or should I say, right in the "gut". It's a wild stab, though his line (B, B, C/R) would be my default with J-T on that board.

Possible he has a set and is hoping river gave you top pair/two pair though this would require him to have three bet 22 or 33 since trying for a C/R with 77, 88 or 99 is either bad poker, or so smart it's over my head.)

In any event, check it back, and be sure to thank the poker gods profusely if this pot gets pushed to you (though against a LAG it's far from impossible.)

I missed lunch, so if you could post results I'll eat my humble pie then take a nap.

+1

You're looking at AK here a lot !

Probably often enough to make raising turn at least worth considering if you've been "behaving yourself" for the last hour or so.

But as the nun said when I asked her if I could give her a hug . . .

"As long don't get into the 'habit' "

No one with a clue is folding a pair or AK here and the combos of not those hands that call a river bet don’t justify betting.

At what point is one too old to master brevity ?

^ Like this ^

Those all beat the ace high hands after this river.

My mistake. For some reason I thought the river card was a small card. So since my posts may be in error, I deleted them.

Best wishes,
Mason

This would 100% be a value bet against me.

If the board was 8923J would you turn AQ into a bluff?

I'd think of all the hands I get to the river with that way, figure out all of the hands I'd bet for value, and then find bluffs accordingly.

Example, I'd have probably put a raise in w/ K9s+ by the turn, so I'm not allowed to have any of that. So my range would probably look something like this:

Pairs: A8s, T8s, 87s, 77-44, A3s
Straight draws: QJ, QTs, JTs
A-hi hands (including wheel draws here): AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A5s, A4s

So on the river, my straight draws and AJ all improve. The rest bricked.

I won't want to bet my hands in the first group often. I'm likely not getting called enough and they could win at SD. So that's out.

So the value combos are QJ (12), QTs (4), JTs (3), AJ (12). 31 combos.

If my math is right (I'm doing this out at work), I'd be giving him 7.5:1 on a call, so I really only need 4 bluffs or so. My bricked wheel draws should suffice to a point where I don't have to bluff AQ, I can check and hope it's good.

bluffing is dumb. v betting is good.

I'm not folding Axs w/ BDFD to described opp on the flop. And on 982-3-J, we need something to bluff so the worst hands we get there with make sense.

forgot position when posted. but you still have 5combos of qt, qj, kt, kj, kq.

K hi that isn't a FD should probably be folded by the turn unless opponent is truly special. We could possibly have KQ. If we did have KQ by the river, though, then yeah I'd much rather bluff some combos of that than A4s

that's why i said you have 5 spade combos that aren't ace hi

Yes. But 2 were already included (QT/QJ) as they were also gutshots (I'm operating on the 982-3 hypothetical btw, to avoid confusion). So maybe we add 1 more potential value bet (the KJs) and 2 more potential bluffs (KTs/KQs). So maybe the times we show up here w/ those is enough, depends how peely we are on the turn w/ KQs. I definitely agree w/ you that these are better bluffs.