Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929
The hero has to bet here for protection/thin value + the majority of times the Hero runs into a better hand he will have outs, often as high as 10 outs given that Qx from our opponents needs to be severely discounted after that action.
Le's set aside that I don't subscribe to the view that "protection" is really a thing. I assume that by protection, you mean forcing other hands to forfeit their equity in the pot rather than getting to realize whatever equity they have for free. This pot is very small, especially for a three-way pot. There is just very little value in protection, and the cost of 1 BB in a 3 BB pot is way too high to pay to achieve a protection-type goal.
I also think you're overestimating how often we are ahead rather than up against marginal hands that will call down (esp. in light of your views on how people will view our hand) and are playing defensively.
I think the best case for getting thin value here is that this is a wet board and there are lots of hands that have draws that might call a bet, but even those hands have decent equity versus us. I just think it's a bit too greedy to try to go for value three ways on this terrible board with ace high. If we can win the pot at a cheap showdown, great. But I think when bets go in on this board, you're usually beat.
Edit: I should note that I do feel there is merit to betting against hands that have equity but will only call bets in the event that they catch and beat you. But the concept of "protection" is too amorphous and misused that I generally dislike it as a reason for betting, but it's not total BS.
Last edited by hardinthepaint; 05-25-2023 at 10:52 PM.