Very agro UTG 8 handed opens probably at least top 25%. folded to very loose button who calls. I 3 bet 99's in the SB. The BB caps...He is very loose and has opened on occasion but this is the first time I've seen him cap...he has mostly been a calling station. Everyone calls.

QcJd5h...I check, BB checks, UTG bets, Button folds,

The UTG isn't dumb and knows that I have an uncapped range and the button could have hit this board. I highly suspect he at least has a pair of Q's or J's or better. He could have KT and obviously 9T is less likely. The BB probably has AK or ATs or maybe just capped with something stupid and missed. I'm not fearing a CR. The UTG will fire the turn 100%.

How far are we going with this?

I’m folding flop. Just a terrible flop for your hand and he’s going to take it away on the turn with his bluffs a lot even if we’re good.

Not sure why we think bb can’t be sandbagging here but even with that read I still fold because the most likely hand is AK, making the utg’s natural bluffs less likely.

I am not folding the flop getting 13 to 1. And I probably bet the flop

Leading into the BB on the flop is suicidal.

So what is the plan for the turn? Betting flop seems insane to me.

I agree with not folding flop. I think there were 4 players so this actually made it 17:1. The plan is to get to showdown for cheap wa/wb situation.

You are definitely winning more often than 17:1, 9:1 and 11:1 on turn and river respectively.

If it gets raised behind, that’s enough proof that you are beat.

if it doesn’t get raised behind, check call to showdown. You’re probably beat, but not enough to justify folding those calling odds, now make villain prove it.

I misread the action, ignore me.

WA/WB spots are for headsup action. It is impossible for you to be way ahead here vs 3 opponents. Time to give up here. The 3 bet preflop from worst position was very optimistic.

Three bet preflop is mandatory. Folding getting 17 to 1 seems criminal

Are you also calling blank turns and rivers?

No, I’m calling because I’m getting almost direct odds to spike a set. I’ll be getting about 10 to 1 on a turn call so I’ll only call if the turn card gives me the equity

Calling flop 100% Think I'm calling Turn & River most run outs.

Game sounds phenomenal

I’m not folding here getting this ridiculous price. I try to see a turn and play poker from there.

I think PF is standard, do others disagree?

+1 think PF is standard.

Ninefingershuffle would have turned set on turn and/or won hand unimproved imo seeing river

Next street update?

There was no next street. I folded and unexpectedly the BB folded. The UTG was shocked and kinda of angry. He flashed AQ. I felt pretty strongly he had a made hand but failed to consider the pot odds I was getting. I didn't consider that a Ten or 8 would give me outs on the turn. Also, there was the chance I still had the best hand. My thinking at the time was that If I call here I may have to call this guy down UIP even though I'm beat most of the time. I should have just gone with my read that his bet was strong and peeled.

Lets say the 8 hit the turn. Are any of you calling and possibly calling the river UIP at this point?

No. I don’t expect someone to bet into three opponents on three streets with a worse hand. I’m calling only if I have pot odds to make my hand

What?!? You should have called because "his bet was strong"? I guess next you're going to say that you should fold when you think he's bluffing.

I peel simply because we’re getting odds to do so, but as you said he bet into 3 people on a connected board, so he’s expecting callers on the flop. I wouldn’t call down without a live read.

I didn't write that correctly. What I meant was I should call the flop getting good odds but not feel compelled to call down UIP since I think he is mostly strong here.

So what do you guys like about your odds on the flop? Assuming best case scenario of no rake, you're getting 17:1 direct pot odds, not closing the action. Again, best case assuming that the third player calls, that's 18:1, which is still 5 bets or so away from being a break even call to hit a set on the turn. If you do hit, and your hand holds up, you do have some implied odds, but that won't look like a blank to everyone, as it's connected with the flop cards, so I don't think you will get a ton of action. Plus someone else could already have a bigger set, hit a straight on the turn or river, or even make a backdoor flush. It's a judgement call, but against a typical lineup IMO your reverse implied odds for hitting and losing are roughly the same as the implied odds for hitting and winning, so I still think a peel is bad.

I think that in huge pots erring on the side of optimism is probably correct. There is the very small chance that I have the best hand. It's possible that the UTG checks back the turn giving me a chance to spike a 9. The UTG has a pretty wide range pre flop so I'm not concerned yet that he flopped a set of QQ's or JJ's. The BB's check seemed to be a genuine "I got none of that" type of check.

I think this is a close spot. If I was getting slightly worse pot odds or if the UTG was a tighter player I could see ditching this.

I would fold in game without giving it a second thought lol

+1

No gamble no future.
I'm calling flop 100%.
Calling most turns based on run out & action.
Calling most rivers based on run out & action.

UTG sounds like LAG fish.
Button is fish.
BB is LAG fish who could be tilting.


OT: Ninefungershuffle spiked a set on turn wasn't a bad beat as was ahead entire hand.