Another day at the butcher shop. - Page 3 - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

That's because it's wrong. If it's 70%/10%/x%/y% in a four way pot, that doesn't mean it's 87.5%/12.5% when it goes heads up.

If you need to spike a set to win, your equity won't improve much getting those folds.

On the other hand, say the board has two spades, you have the Ks and you can get the As to fold with a raise. Your equity goes up way more than 1/8 of the 20% the two folders hold.

the equity calculations take into account the overall averages, including both scenarios above. when two people are left in the 70%/10%/x%/y% scenario, are you saying their equities won't add up to 100%?

if they do add up to 100%, how is my point wrong? some of the x% and some of the y% have to be allocated to hero as long as the bb isn't 100% to win the pot.

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09-10-2015 , 06:58 AM

#52

chillrob

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The new equities with two players left will still add up to 100%, but there is no reason the new equity ratio has to stay the same. Sometimes most or all of the equity from the folded hands will go to one particular player, usually the one with the current best hand.

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09-10-2015 , 10:26 AM

#53

Jon_locke

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

so your hot and cold equity absolutely improves as long as you have outs to the best hand and/or some chance of currently holding the best hand. .

Just to clarify, our hot/cold equity doesn't improve when we only have outs to the best hand. If we spike a 9 we win, if we don't we lose, it doesn't t matter if 18 other people peel every hand they have.

Our equity in the pot actually decrease drastically when we get it heads up and need to improve given we gold out our overlay

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09-10-2015 , 05:24 PM

#54

UpHillBothWays

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 978

Board:

Equity Win Tie
UTG 8.63% 8.63% 0.00% 9d9h
UTG+2 14.55% 13.99% 0.56% 66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K5o, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o
MP1 14.50% 13.94% 0.56% 66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K5o, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o
MP2 14.53% 13.97% 0.56% 66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K5o, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o
BB 47.79% 47.79% 0.01% TT+

if we have outs, equity necessarily improves.

Board:

Equity Win Tie
UTG 10.20% 10.20% 0.00% 9d9h
BB 89.80% 89.80% 0.00% TT+

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09-10-2015 , 05:28 PM

#55

chillrob

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We're not talking about preflop here. Your example has no board, so I'm assuming that is what it reflects.

Although even in this example, your equity would be higher as 9% of a bigger pot with five players vs. 10% of a smaller pot with two players.

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09-10-2015 , 05:56 PM

#56

Jon_locke

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

You have them a range of 22-66. I agree if you get them to fold quads or flopped full house our equity will improve.

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09-10-2015 , 10:33 PM

#57

stinkypete

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Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

it pleases me that presumably winning players are still this dumb

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09-10-2015 , 11:10 PM

#58

ZOMG_RIGGED!

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Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

Yeah, this was my first thought but I didn't have the time when I read to think about or do test math. Off the top of my head though I couldn't think of any reason why the gained equity would have to split proportionally

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09-11-2015 , 03:11 PM

#59

UpHillBothWays

adept

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!

then i'm obviously missing something. the assumptions were:

1. you do not currently have the best hand vs. the opponent's range.
2. you are up against more than 1 player (i just took JL's range for the people who would be folding. yes the assumption is that they fold to the raise), in this case 3.
3. your hand has outs to be the best hand (anything from bdfd + set to just set outs that the opponent has a flush redraw against).

the point was:

in a hand v range situation where you have outs, removing the opponents from the hand necessarily increases your equity.

i still don't see how that's wrong. so if somebody can show me i'd be appreciative.

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09-11-2015 , 03:16 PM

#60

Jon_locke

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

the only equity increase you have here is if Villian has black tens. You have red 99 and hit a running diamond and opponent folds higher diamond. this is such a trivial % it's not worth mentioning.

The rest is very simple. You have to hit a 9 to win. Whether you have 1 opponent or 8 it doesn't matter becusse you'll hit a 9 the same % and you'll win the same exact %

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09-11-2015 , 03:23 PM

#61

UpHillBothWays

adept

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

so what about the cases where the opponents could hit better hands but they folded? you're saying we get none of that equity?

and there is still the rare instance that we currently hold the best hand when we raise. in that case, folding out overcards, especially non-overlapping sets of them, is a large increase for us.

how does none of that affect it?

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09-11-2015 , 03:27 PM

#62

Jon_locke

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

If bb has us beat, please give one example of how opponents can hit better hands where they folded? (Ignoring the slightly less than 2% of time from running flush example)

Yes, folding out over cards is worth something when bb has AK.

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09-11-2015 , 03:28 PM

#63

chillrob

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I don't think you understand that having a smaller equity percentage in a bigger pot is better than having a tiny bit higher percentage equity in a smaller pot. Your goal is to win the most money, not the greatest number of pots.

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09-11-2015 , 06:23 PM

#64

UpHillBothWays

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Bb can have JJ. Others can have suited aces, kq, etc. that one case alone should account for a change in equity for us (again not a big change since we still have to hit the 9 or running flush or whatever but there's still some chance we win the pot).

Somebody else noted out goal is to win money. Ofc but pot size hasn't really changed here that much. 3 more sbs went in after we raised. Regardless there are now fewer hands competing for the same size pot.

I'm still assuming I'm wrong here btw. I just haven't seen the logic as to why.

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09-11-2015 , 06:33 PM

#65

chillrob

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That many more bets only went in after the raise because hero was way behind. If he had been ahead, only one more flop bet goes in. Plus more bets go in on later streets if there are more players left to pay you off if you spike a set.

If there is a decent chance you are ahead, of course a raise becomes better. But you seemed to be saying it was best even if you're always behind.

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09-11-2015 , 06:52 PM

#66

DeathDonkey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

If bb has jacks and someone else has KQ, the bb wants KQ to fold and you want it to stay in. This is super simple you are over thinking it. You have to spike a 9, if/when you do KQ is drawing dead, if you don't spike a 9 either the bb will win with jacks or the other guy will hit a king or queen and win, thus if KQ folds the flop all that equity will go to the jacks.

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09-11-2015 , 06:57 PM

#67

ZOMG_RIGGED!

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Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

Keeping in mind we really can't make a flush, I can't think of a single runout where we give a **** how many K'e or Q's come off the deck. in fact when we get lucky and this exact turn card comes off we want KQ with a diamond in

Last edited by ZOMG_RIGGED!; 09-11-2015 at 06:59 PM. Reason: Slow pony

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09-11-2015 , 07:05 PM

#68

ZOMG_RIGGED!

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Quote:

Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays

then i'm obviously missing something. the assumptions were:

the point was:

in a hand v range situation where you have outs, removing the opponents from the hand necessarily increases your equity.

i still don't see how that's wrong. so if somebody can show me i'd be appreciative.

If you meant to quote me you're arguing a point that I was debating. I was arguing that raising won't increase of equity or if that's a good/bad thing. I was saying that just because if everyone else folds that the equity isn't divided up the way you said.

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