Live full 20 game.

Spazzy UTG raises and I 3-bet next in with AKo. A decent player in LP flats the 3-bets. He is probably a winner in this game, or at least about break even. He shows aggression mostly when appropriate and his flat call of the 3-bet means he has something pretty serious over there.

3 players, 10 small bets (blinds cleared out)

5 8 5

I have no clubs.

UTG checks, I check, good player bets, we both call.

J

It checks through

2

UTG checks and I bet.

Let me have it.

not a good flop check imo. you still have the best hand too often.

Hmmm
I can see the flop check. Going off your read of LP, there are players in the 20 where I'd assume their flat-call PF means I can only chop at best UI, and they're not laying down either. I've probably played hands like this, and maybe even folded the turn. Feels kind of weak, but I think it might be correct against some players. Bet, bet might be ok, but I think it's worse with UTG in there too.

Obv on the turn you like your chances more, but to me, only to the point of wanting to show down. I think the river value bet is not that good. Even if he's spazzy I expect the UTG to show up and call with a pocket pair a lot, and if LP is the usual passive type he can still have like 99 or something, and is probably calling with AK. I think the main problem is that everyone is going to put you on AK and thus play perfectly against you.

I'm mixed about the flop, but I think that betting is better. The pot is big enough that you don't mind getting any hand to fold, and getting LP to call with a hand like AJs would be pretty awesome.

I really don't like the river bet. You've got the nut-nothing and you just aren't going to get any pair to fold after the flop and turn action. The presence of UTG is going to make it tough to get value out of a weaker A, and you can often get away from your hand if it goes bet, call.

I would play it the same, except for the river bet. You are only called by the better hands and the way you played it screams A-K, so no pair is folding.

Hmmm. I don't think c/c the flop is that great. I also don't think betting the flop is that great. I really don't like c/f the flop, either. Did you consider asking the other two guys if they just wanted to chop it up?

Barring that, and given your read of LP, check/fold the flop is probably the lesser of all evils. It seems incredibly weak, but it sounds like you're putting LP on JJ-TT (maybe 99), and AK.

When the turn checks through TT-99 is looking more likely for LP, but either way he's not folding. Add UTG into the mix, and you may be looking at a two- or three-way chop at best, and you're certainly not getting two folds out of your river bet. I'd just c/f the river if I made it that far.

I like the river bet. If LP is half as good as you think, we have the pure nuts vs him, so let's bet vs his AQ. EP might have us beaten, but he's telling us he doesn't, so let's listen.

3 flat is 99-QQ. Given that he slows down, take QQ out of the mix. He's got 99-JJ and figures you for the same range and doesnt know if he's plus or minus your pair.

Its never AQ. It might be AKs, so at best its 1/2 pot.

Its not folding enough to make the bet worth it. You bet only for the fold equity, not value here. Turn em face up and hope for the chop.

bet your nuts on the flop

glad to see this one is at least interesting.

Wait, was the river bet for value or a bluff? I don't even know any more, I think it's bad either way. The more I think about it I like the rest of the hand. Bet, bet is -EV on this hand imo.

I'd think AQ would make up a lot of his preflop cold calling range in this spot. explain why he never has AQ?

Flop is an EZ bet.

As played, check river.

I think you're value-betting, but I think the probability you get called by a worse hand is pretty slim, and they should be insta-calling with a better hand.

I wasn't sure if I was value-betting. I was pretty confident I had the nuts on the river and thought there was a slight chance he'd pay me off with AQs. I also thought there was a small chance he'd do something silly like folding AK if I bet in such a way that said "I can't believe I just airballed that turn check/raise fine I freaking bet" which is what I tried to do. I was completely unconcerned about the other player in the hand, and come to think of it...Won't he fold some hands that beat me when faced with over-calling the river?

I'm kinda torn on the flop, but have come to the conclusion that betting is probably better. Checking is just asking to get owned in all kinds of stupid ways.

The way the hand was played, AK sure looks like the nuts...

...right up until someone calls you. Then I think you're a dog.

EP may have 33, K2cc or something weird like that. I don't think people call the river a whole lot in live 20/40 with AQ/AT/KQ unimproved in a 3-bet preflop hand.

Results:
Jesse bets river, everyone folds.

you think lp checks back a pair on this boring board on the turn? what? We checked the flop. the pot is huge. He knows any pair is better than our hand. EP has shown zero aggression. No way lp has us beaten. You have to get over your narrow unjustified read of his preflop range and really look at what is happening on the flop and turn. Sure a 3flat is usually what you said, but how often do people play those that way postflop? this is not 4/8

LP is betting the turn with any pair. Any pair.

I would bet the flop because decent live players call 3 with more than just JJ or TT. I assume you have an aggressive image and that being so AK, AQ, and maybe AJs are all in his range. If he raises the flop right there it isn't terrible because it will usually get the pot heads up and we know we have 6 clean outs almost every time.

As played I would bet the river because the decent player doesn't have a pair and EP probably doesn't either. Your opponents might not expect you to bet AK there so they may look you up because it looks like a bluff or a missed turn c/r.

Maybe it's just a difference between the skill levels of where you play versus where I play, but I see "decent" players make a terrible turn check here with a pair all the time. Maybe he's the type of player that values not walking into a trap more highly than he values money (fearing that EP has a 5). Maybe he's got TT and got scared by the J. Maybe he just sucks.

Either way, I think the chance that he's got a pair is better than the chance that he's got a weaker A *and* will pay off a river bet (at least where I play).

If the "decent" player is of the kind I most often see live, he has either AK, AQs (clubs), or TT here. TT or AQs seem more likely since he bet the flop. I can't see him folding the TT on the river. He may fold the AK letting hero steal half a pot, but it doesn't seem like there is a lot of value there, someone else would have to do the hard math for me. I do not think you will get a call from AQs.

[x] fail

try again

A good player aint checking a pair in position 3 handed on the turn.

Anyway, I fire the flop and keep going from there.

my problem with firing the flop is that I feel like calling all the way down with AK is spew once he raises the flop. What do you do if you fire, he raises, you call, the turn blanks, you check/call again, then on the river you still can't beat pocket deuces and he bets. Do you fold? I hate taking that line, but calling on the river seems awful.

1) when did he raise the flop
2) why do you have to call all the way down?

jesse, i think you are making a rather serious error in that you are assuming someone always has to have a pair in this spot.

on this type of board, you can assume your AK is the best hand until someone tells you otherwise. the large size of the pot also makes it paramount that you try and win it through aggression. not that you expect someone with a pair to fold - but rather, that you want anyone who has up to 6 outs against you to fold, either on the flop or the turn.

if you bet and get raised, you are almost always behind. because the pot is so large, so you peel the flop and the turn (assuming HU) and then comfortably fold on the river if you dont improve. however, dont immediately assume you are going to get raised on the flop.