Quote:
Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone
do we really need to have these bd draws tho? like, we need to balance those with value, but we're giving up a lot with the value side of our range by not delaying until turn. i'd just accept the fact that we can't continue as light and know that we're gonna make up for it by pwning him on the turn with our legit hands and draws.
yeah i think it's hard to realize the equity with those speculative hands (like ~30% equity with very very little showdown value that can improve on the turn to some sorta draw, eg. QTs on Kxx) and i see merit to needing values to balance with flop k/r. maybe the correct adjustment is to just fold them. but then again, why should we balance against players who are incapable of adjusting. the way i see it is this part of our range is a function of how showdown bound villain is. i guess another way to look at it is since these hands are mostly used to balance our value hands and we have no value hands on the flop, the correct strategy is just to fold them. i'm not sure which thinking is more correct and actually in tune with the game since im really at this point just trying to mimic a bot but not understand the reasonings behind the things it does (maybe there are no human reasonings and it is just pure calculation).
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i'm going to assume a hypothetical optimal is somewhere around cbet 80% flop and cbet 80% turn (64% of his continuing range by turn). if villain cbets 100% flop and cbets 90% turn (90% of his continuing range by turn), the % in combo difference between the former and ladder is 26%. If villain opens 400 combos, he'll have 256 combos if he cbets optimal and 360 combos if he's a double barreling machine.
there is a 104 combo difference and i'd guess the vast majority of this are hands in the complete air to having 50ish% equity range. i'm not looking at a solver for reference so i'm pulling numbers out of my ass, but let's assume the board is 8642. Villain's gonna double barrel almost all Ax, all air, all draws, all gutshots, all pairs with 5 outs to improve, and almost all pairs with 2 outs to improve.
some advantage to villain's strategy is it can get hero to mistakingly overfold his own Ax type hands as well as deny the equity of those speculative hands. villain also get to make more with his stronger hands since none of those are checking back the flop. Ax type hands are going to make up the largest part of hero's range so it makes sense to figure out how to correctly play these hands first. i don't know how really. my guess is just k/c down more and gamble more since the majority of villain's range is also Ax type hands (as well as more bluffs). It just depends who's x is bigger.
for villain, the # of air is probably a dozen or so combos higher than what it should be, while those Ax type hands are probably going to make up for the majority of the double barreler's range.
by delaying 100% (i'm skeptical on this but i wouldn't be surprised if this is the max exploit strat against a habitual double barreler who wouldn't adjust), i assume we're aiming mostly to punish those ace high type hands on a bigger street. i don't see any point in punishing their bluff portion as i think such a player is just going to triple barrel bluff close upto a dozen more combos than they should on river (altho there are times they spike their 6 outer so it's not completely dead ev).
i rather actually just deviate very little from what i think optimal is since i believe most villains are not goign to keep habitually double barreling. in fact i believe most villains incorrectly over adjust once they see a few hands because that is just human nature. but maybe there are some with a hardwired strategy that they've been using for years and cannot and will not adjust. maybe against those, it is correct to delay 100%??
is what i said logically sound? i haven't really done any work or formed any conclusion. i just want to figure out why
1) delaying 100% is sound, and
2) why folding speculative hands is forced
with raw human thinking.
Last edited by tiger415; 07-21-2018 at 06:07 PM.