Quote:
Originally Posted by JLot
I think you make some good points here Abba. Do we also have some 9's and better 8's in our range here? I would question whether or not button is 3 betting with hands like A4s, 33, 22 - might be too light. It's interesting that there is such a large variety of opinions on the right play here. You might be right though, we may have enough hands that can check call in our range that are worse than 87.
If they dont have A4s and small pairs then they also don't have 98s or K8s, in which case the hands that beat you are mostly limited to A8 and 88.
But they still have AK, AQ, AT, 77, 55, A6s and some other hands like KT/KQ that occasionally check back. Those hands outnumber A8 and 88 by a factor of nearly 10:1 because the 8 on the board and the 8 in your hand severely cut down on their combos of A8 and 88.
Given you're betting 1 into 4 their optimal call frequency is something around 80% of their range. So if they're calling down optimally your bet with 8x should expect to get called by worse easily twice as often and probably closer to 3x as often as you get action from better. It's not really that close with an 8 in your hand. The jump from 8x to 77 is substantial due to card removal effects.