Saturday night Borgata 80-160. It's my second time playing higher than 40-80 in my life and the table may suspect it.

Villain is a very strong thinking player -- though very LAGgy pre (a bit too much IMO). I suspect his HJ opening range is quite wide, including hands at the edge like A5o, Q8s, K7s, 76s, K9o, and 22.

He opens the HJ and I def the K9 in the BB.

Flop (2.25 BB): A34

I check, he bets, I call.

Turn (3.25 BB): 3

Check, check.

River (3.25 BB): 8

I check and he bets ....

It is fairly early in the game and I'm up a little. I've been playing somewhat tight and fear I may be perceived as scared money (I did call someone down three streets with Ace high earlier but villain was away from the table at the time). Villain and I have never played together before and only know him through reputation.

Thanks,

Magicmcq

You are likely getting value bet to death here by any pair making sure you don't have an ace, but he could also be bluffing a ton trying to get you to fold random gutshots or flush draws that have him beat. I think that makes it a call due to flop board texture.

flop call is awful

I would only peel this flop vs a button and very very loose CO open

Flop call is not awful and I would call river against many

This sure feels like a value bet to me. I would fold the river. It seems to me he would have bet the turn with a potential hand he may bluff with on the river. You may get accidentally value owned sometimes too. He doesn't have a ton of missed draws especially with the Ks and As being out. The pot is small.

I think it's close though. He has incentive to bet some hands he was gonna give up with once you check twice and your potential image.

Raise. Also somewhat related, Fun spot for Villian to value bet KQ

I think anything other than check call on flop is pretty bad. I'd also call river against described villain.

Seem to me vs this villain i would like alway call with the nut no pair hand KQ and sometimes call and sometimes fold K9 .
Just randomize it imo .

Randomize it later imo. river call is close but I'd make it here just to find out what kind of hands he's going to take this line with

on flop u hit a spade 20% of time and a K or 9 12% of time. Pretty sure you can't continue with any other card on turn which he is betting at least 70-80% of time. So you're calling $80 into $440 or you need to improve 18% just to continue on turn if he's betting. You could also be drawing to a runner runner two pair/trips or even be drawing dead. If you're calling this flop you do not win in poker.

You don't need to improve to win the hand...

Vs this aggressive opponent who is barreling turn at a very high frequency you do most of the time...

an opponent barreling too much doesn't mean you need stronger hands to call down

If you're calling turn u prob gotta call river. I love putting in 2.5 bets in this spot

Yeah i agree but since we would already call every KQ and KJ and a good proportion of KT i think k9 its pretty much at the bottom of our range to call down so i wouldnt mind randomise by default.

But yeah the read is key here to adjust later on so might be a must to call here 100% .

If you fold this flop, you are folding way too much and letting people run over you. Your calculations also omit us having any bluff/fold equity.

Assume villain cbets 100%. I count roughly 30% of his range as Ax and KK, 20% smaller pairs, 50% air. 70% of the time, you are 50-50 vs his range. If he is barreling 80% on the turn, that is a lot of weak barreled hands we can attack.


x/r flop is interesting. We need some bluffs that aren't flush draws or straight draws. KsQ/KsJ are too strong to turn into bluffs on the flop. KsT-Ks8 are good choices since they have the highest equity remaining and we don't mind having to fold them. Can barrel on spade, 2, 5, 6, 7; x/giveup on 8, T, J, Q; x/call on K, 9, A.

if 30% is Ax and KK, 20% smaller pairs, 50% isn't air...there's some KT-KQ there

It's air in the sense that we can attack it and get lots of FE.

I have villain with a ~26% range = 260 combos. It cuts off at A8o and A3s. If villains open more A-rag type hands and fewer SCs, I can see how it would be correct to fold a lot more on A-hi flops.

He cbets 100%.
On the turn, he checks back 20% -- say all Khi and some PP (66-88)
That leaves 208 combos, or which 85 are Qhi and worse.
He barrels, we have an easy call down on safe runouts.
This doesn't yet factor in any bluff equity we may have.
Folding flop is a huge mistake

Even if it's at the bottom of or call range it can't be that bad on its own. I think in this case though, against an opponent we'd like to start pegging down, we gain a lot of info on this range basically no matter what he turns over. If he has a random 8 we learn he gives up on this type of flop on the turn. Two big cards we learn he's going to vbet this river very thin, two little ones that he stab bluff even though he's not replying anything

Curious what range of hands you expect to see most on river here? I would think 8x the overwhelming majority and KQ/KJ a decent percentage.

Especially in this game. I would expect 8x a lot more often than KQ or KJ. Also I like k/r this flop as opposed to calling, and will fold a decent percentage to players that have a more snug opening range.

Except there are roughly 4x as many combos of KJKQ than 8x here, assuming 7-8s and 8-9s only 8x combos.


Also curious, if 8x is majority of our range, it's not the easiest river bet/call when we get check raised vs guy shot taking 80 game. In my experience guys moving up limits tend to play somewhat striahjtdorard and would be less inclined to check raise River bluff in this spot vs good player

The reverse though he may be bluffing wider because he doesn't think the guy shot taking will call down with k high

Maybe it is me that do not value bet thin enough but , i can see KQ,KJ betting for thin value on turn but the river ?
Not lot better hand would fold on the river and i see the range of hands that would call you for value seem pretty small .

I would rather check behing kj-kq on the river