Posting because HB told me to
OP, it's been a while with that particular game so I'm going to defer to HB on the way people play preflop, but will say that people certainly at least used to 3b way more than 3% pf. Given the number of former 20 regs I see in those games now I have a hard time believing that's the pf3b% has actually dropped.
Count me among the folks that are saying the ranges you're assigning here are way, way too narrow, both generally and for that particular game. Peoples's flop cc ranges here absolutely include things like gutshots (KJ, QJ, sometimes even stuff like 45s), flush draws, raggy aces, etc (and that's excluding the times people have stuff like KhTx and are calling for the super backdoor prayer-combo). A couple of quick and dirty 'stoves puts your equity against those ranges somewhere between 14% and 20%.
A couple of other random thoughts:
1) more generally outside of how this particular villain 1 plays, you are definitely getting c/r'ed by worse aces here with at least some frequency, kill pot or no. I'd be really carefully asigning super-narrow ranges in that particular game.
2) I'd also be really inclined to reassess your read of villain 2 given how he played his hand here
3) results oriented thinking- The way the hands plays out, you're not only getting 15:1 on the flop, but assuming no one raises later streets, probably something like ~11:1 on the turn and at least 13:1 on the river, depending on if/when people fold. Implications for pokerstove aside, is your read so rock solid that you're not wrong more than ~one time in 11?