60-120 at Commerce, a tough game has recently softened up.

I raise UTG with AJ. Twelve cold-callers and then Wayne 3-bets from the big blind. I decide to cap and everyone calls.

Flop comes QT7. Wayne bets, I call, 6 other guys call, then there's a raise. Wayne 3-bets, I call, somebody caps, we all call. turn.

Turn is a very nice K. Wayne bets, I raise, next guy cold-calls, next guy cold-calls, Wayne 3-bets, I cap, next guy calls all in, next guy folds, Wayne calls. You can barely see the felt for all the chips in the middle of the table.

River is another 7. Wayne bets.

Now I know I'm beat.

I'm 100% positive.

100%.

And yet, . . . and yet . . .

In the back of my mind I'm remembering Izmet Fekali. For those of you who are not old enough to remember, Izmet was a one-of-a-kind poster, which you'll see in a moment. In the back of my mind, I remembered, pretty accurately I must say, these posts, which I herewith reproduce in all their glory:


To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: J-D
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 2:47 a.m.
In Response To: Re: Top Players: How Many Re-Raises? (Louie Landale)

In a recent session I was on the wrong end of set-over-set when the
flop came. I flopped a set of queens, to a board of:

King, Queen, Seven - with two clubs.

Five of us capped it on the flop; I was absolutely certain I had the
best hand since I had put in the second (and last) raise pre-flop and
the holder of "KK" was a very aggressive player whom I was sure would
have capped it with "AA", "KK", - probably even with "AKs".

When a blank fell on the turn and he NOW decided to cap it, I was 99%
sure of what he had. I called on the basis of the 1% I was wrong, and
the fact that the fourth Queen would put the flush out giving me
excellent implied odds. (Looking back, I may have even been getting
45-1 without future bets; it was a BIG pot.)

Of course the Queen landed on the river.

I checked, the Ace high flush bet, "KK" raised, sevens full and another
flush just called. When it got back to me, I three-bet it;

I got paid off by everyone EXCEPT "KK", who flashed me his hand before
he mucked it.

There were well over 50 big bets in the pot and he wouldn't pay one
more bet to see it to the end - and his call would have almost
certainly closed the action; this was no group of rocket scientists,
but even they knew they were beaten - none of them were about to cap
the betting.

In order for this to be a good laydown on his part, he would have to be
more than 98% sure that he was beaten.

Looking at it from his perspective, he figured to win this hand
approximately one time in a thousand.

IMO, and I am not a fan of laying down big hands on the river for one
more bet in huge pots, I don't think he could win it that often.

P.S. Having said all that, I would have probably paid off; perhaps the
day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny, but it
hasn't come yet. It doesn't really matter how good your hand is, or the
size of the pot.

Sometimes even second nut isn't worth one more bet.

Just my opinion,
J-D


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: Izmet Fekali
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 7:02 a.m.
In Response To: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (J-D)

J-D writes:
> perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny

Aaaarghh!!!

Someday you will make such a fold, it will be a good one and you will
be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at Binions with
the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend.

Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday. But, this time a
guy with Q2s will drag your pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat
and f*ck her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The
smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore
dick?

From an old Albanian song:

"I was told by David Duchowny
ya' won't get rich by good laydowny!"
--
Izmet Fekali (I have a filthy mouth, Mason, please bear with me...)
Burek Experts Ltd.
Catering the World Since 1389!
Albania, Slovenia, Europe


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: David Sklansky
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 1:01 p.m.
In Response To: Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (Izmet Fekali)

Unfortunately, when I wrote my Eight Mistakes In Poker and contrasted
the mistake of folding when you should call with its opposite number, I
did not have Izmet's explanation available to me. It will be included
in my next edition.

David Sklansky

[end old posts]

So I opted to try to be the stupid guy with the sore dick.

No shrimp cocktails for me this week.

if you are 100% certain then fold...but if you are 99% certain you call

I folded a hand the other day in a pot not quite as huge and it's been 'bothering' me ever since. Not really, but I've been thinking about it. There was just a sliiiiiight chance that I was good but, really, what could the guy have to take that much heat and then bet the river? The thing is: How often does this happen and is it 'worth it' to call for the peace of mind leavened by the occasional big pot that you end up taking down?

With a huge smile, I remember the posts of Izmet Fekali on RGP. Also those of Abdul Jalib.

My thought is similar to Izmet's but not as eloquent.

You are a big underdog perhaps, but not 100%.
If you call and you're wrong, it's just one BB and no huge deal.
If you're wrong, you're wrong. Move on.


But if you fold and would have won, it's a major catastrophy.

bc

Andy -

These river decisions aren't about math, reads, fruit plates, fur coats, or super models.

They are about metagame. Wayne knows what you have on the turn. I mean, lets just say, he can beat TT. He may have AJs. But since you capped preflop, he's putting you on AA, KK, or QQ (am I right?). So, shoot, I'll say he can even beat QQ.

So, do you call when the board pairs? It depends on these things:

1.) Does Wayne take shots at you? If so, you should probably call. If he takes advantage of your (in my most sincere voice) nittiness, you need to call.

2.) If you fold, and see wayne has KQs or AA or J9s or AJ....will it effect your play? If so, you need to call.

3.) Will others at the table know what you have at the end of the turn and see you fold to a single river bet? Are they good enough to make your life miserable for the rest of your Commerce-life?

If the answer to all three of the above are "no", enjoy your fruitplate. If the answers are resounding "yes"s, then, well, crying call (or is it "cry and call"?)

Best,

Josh

fur's overrated, it's 100 degrees out

Doesn't matter what Wayne puts me on preflop, when I cap the turn he know I have A-J. Everyone knows.

1) No; he see me as nitty in terms of how many hands I play, not in terms of how I play when involved in hands with him.

2) I'd like to say no, but an honest answer is probably no, not definitely no.

3) Yes; definitely no.

Anyway, I wasn't really too concerned about this hand, I just wanted an excuse to repost the old Fekali/Sklansky posts which always make me laugh even lo these many years later. And since this also now occasioned a J-Dub post, all that much the better.

Love,
Andy

You need glasses.

I don't know, you can say 99.9999%, but you have to factor in the medical cost of lighting yourself on fire if you're wrong.

Now that just struck me as really funny.

I call and hope to see AdJd. I think getting 45:1 or whatever it is you have to call to chop with one combo even if it's discounted.

Yeah, I suppose that the 3rd guy's all in increases the possibility that Wayne's betting a non-full house.

Thinking about the math now, if we say on the turn that Wayne has TT, QQ, KK, or AJs, that gives him a 25% chance of having AJs (3 ways to have each of those four hands).

So, if we assume he bets the river with all 4 of those hands, then, since we are chopping at best, we'd need 6:1 to call, which we are easily getting (this would mean winning 3 bets 25% of the time, and losing 1 bet 75% of the time).

So, yeah, if wayne would play AJs this way, it's actually a pretty easy call.

Josh

Even if AdJd is the only hand he plays this way that Andy ties with, and he only plays it that way 40% of the time, then this is a call. That's assuming TT, QQ, and KK all get played this way. If TT and KK are discounted as well it makes it an easier call.

i havent read replies and i doubt i will but plz dont be ridiculous, this hand is against wayne, do what you need to do when playing against wayne in a big pot when youre probably beat, call. he can have 7Xdd/J9/same hand/psycho AA/KQ. unfortunately he will almost never have these hands. luckily almost never is plenty often enough to call in this pot though.

I always thought Izmet and Abdul were the same person. Of course, I thought that about Clark and Dynasty too.

and Sublime thought I was black.

Some mistakes are simply inexcusable.

getting something like 55:1 you have to call with as little as a .5% chance of wining the pot. pay the man his money, hopefully you wont have blue balls

I still think Sublime is in the closet for what its worth.

I hope you called... or I will have to label you...

The thing I love about this post is the contrast between you and Mike l (at least a former version of him). A while ago Mike posted a hand where he was seriously questioning himself for not putting in something like the 7th raise on the turn holding queens on a 4567ish board and here we have Andy questioning whether he should fling 1bb into a 723bb pot holding a straight. I'm not sure either of them are/were correct/mistaken, but I love the thought process.

Well, I don't remember Mike's hand, but he evidently felt strongly enough that he had the best hand; in this one, I felt strongly enough (or almost) that I didn't.

if it's the hand from forever ago where i have JJ on the flop and it's like 743 or something you are massively misremembering things.

So I'm at Casino Arizona and run into Ronnie Bardah. He's telling me about two guys going 11 bets HU in a limit game and one of them snap folding to the 12th bet.

I simply said "Fur coat" and he said "what?"

So I had to find a link and this is the one I found. Now Ronnie is part of the fur coat cognoscenti.

Just this trip down memory lane made me happy.

Regards,
Lee

Wow. Hey, there, Lee, long time no.