Villain is the typical decent Vegas mid limit TAG, probably a winner but unlikely a winner at anything much higher. Yes aggro, well balanced, but just too tight and does stuff like cc raises and play too much fit bb or gold from the blinds despite proper defend frequencies.

UTG raises, Villain coldcalls OTB, I call 44 from the BB.

Flop: T92r
Checked around with villains x being oot.

Turn: 5r
I bet, UTG folds, Villain raises, I 3! planning to fold to a 4bet, bet any non A, non 4 river. 4 Ill mix in a c/r as this guy loves to stab at rivers if weakness was shown at any point. I might even work in the rate c/r bluff if river comes 9 or T depending on read.

Is this any worse then a small mistake? I think lots of us leave $ on the table against this type of villain by giving them too much credit. This one villain for instance has WAY too high a wwsd% for a winning live lhe player.

Ps. Not sure if he cc the same range he'd 3bet or if he has a separate cc range. He seems too good for the latter. I haven't seen indications of either.

I love it

Is this a bluff or a value raise? Or equity denial?

Equity denial for the turn 3brt in a vacuum, although plan as a whole is value. Setting up a river vbet on the good rivers. Equity denial does work though I hate the term, cause I don't mind a fold from alot of hands I'm beating.

+1

Think BTN TAG seems like TAG fish common at Bellagio. Typically has separate cc range pf vs 3bet range on BTN.

Very narrow pf 3bet range vs UTG preflop raise for BTN TAG fish imo.

I really like this, his line is so incongruous and he may be pulling a dumb bluff. You’ve mapped it out well too for how you’ll react to further developments.

WP.

I mean makes sense to me. His flop check and then raise turn just seems sooooo weird on this flop. The only thing that makes sense is he turned a 5 and wants to FSDR. Or a bluff.

I get 3 betting this as a bluff if you think he will fold a 5. I get the equity denial if you think he is raising a big ace and will fold. Does he even have a big Ace? I'm not getting what hands you are going to be getting value from. Wouldn't he just bet a straight draw on the flop? Would he call the 3 bet with a big Ace?

Yeah, if he calls the turn three bet I probably check the river

The viability of your line is unfalsifiable because you have baked so many villain reads into your post that we can't say are are right or wrong. Of course you can construct a villain against whom this line makes sense. Is this good in a vacuum? I don't think so. This hand was close between bet/fold and check/call (depending on action). You have better bluff candidates to b/3b, and I just don't think that this is a value b/3b against most players.

I think a better way to pose your question is against what type of players would it possibly make sense to play your hand this way. And the answer, rather obviously, is players who overfold against raises, and specifically, players who are reasonably likely to fold a pair bigger than yours. I suppose in theory there are players against whom this could be a value b/3b, but it would have to be someone who is incredibly optimistic and sticky, like someone that raises a 2 or ace high here and actually thinks it is good.

+1

Just hope Ninefingershuffle does this vs me 100% when I play Monday

But he just looks like he has nothing. Who checks a ten or nine there on the flop?

Villain took a weird line. It's not every day the IP player checks and then raises an apparent brick. I agree it's unlikely someone checked a ten or a nine there, but it's also not really relevant. Who checks a straight draw here and then raises turn? Who checks an airball and then raises turn?

It seems to me he is a lot more likely to have 55 or some weird slowplay like T9s or a flopped set than he is to have a total airball or a straight draw. That just makes more sense than villain spazzing out, and people tend to underbluff and overslowplay.

Yeah I put in alot of reads but I think I'm just describing a type of villain pretty much all of you have experience with.

So my question was more 'was this a mistake against this kinda TAFfish?' Most criticism seems to be at planned river bet. I only do that because I think it's a better option the c/c. Everything he could possibly have is unlikely cause his line doesn't really make sense for anything, but all those unlikely things h was ve equity as against 44. Imo if he does have A high, he's more likely to bluffcatch call with it then he is to bet it in the river. Checking a brick river after 3 betting the turn makes me feel quest, in this situation and all around bad metagame.

If I'm betting the river it's because I am continuing with a bluff. I'm hoping he was trying to spike two pair and will fold river UIP. If you think he is not folding then I think checking is best in the hopes he checks back a better hand out of confusion and you save a bet. The hope of b3b the turn and betting the river for value seems awfully optimistic.

Yes, it was a mistake. Your read is that this player is (a) too tight and (b) plays fit or fold (at least in the blinds) and doesn't get to showdown often enough. This overly tight player who tends to commit only when he has a strong showdownable hand has now raised you on a big bet street, on a dry board. As I noted above, if you're going to play back against someone with an incredibly marginal hand here, it should be against someone who has shown a propensity to overfold against raises, and specifically, players who are reasonably likely to fold a pair bigger than yours. Ideally, you've seen them raise/fold before. You never said this guy raise/folds, and that's a pretty uncommon thing for players to do.

Don't think was a mistake.

Would call turn and check river. Probably check / call river.

Vegas TAG fish is quite bad per my experience & generally preferred to showdown light with 44 on this board.

Seems spewy

+1

However, spewy but TAG fish in Vegas is ultra exploitable. Sample size of sessions from 8pm - 6am I've never encountered a TAG in Vegas this did nor apply.

Only exception could be ninawilliams and/or expert playing LHE in Vegas instead of Mix, high stakes NL, etc

Did anyone notice or consider that Villain checked out of turn on the flop? It's kind of hidden in the hand description. I've been trying to think about what it may mean. Seems like when people do that they either have totally missed the flop, or have hit it hard but are trying to be tricky so may actually raise if someone bets into them, or spring to life on the turn. When he raises this turn my instinct is to think he more likely has a big hand he slowplayed on the flop than that he has a bluff.

Did not notice. Still think correct for
MetaGameOver to 3 bet turn % of times vs TAG fish.

OT:
I experimented checking out of turn HUHU & it works high % of times although I've never done that live unless by accident.

I like the 3bet for value here, especially if he's "that type" making nonsense raises on the turn. Not sure about the river k/r as a bluff on pairing boards though, what player of that type ever folds better?

+1

99% of TAG reg/fish folds river c/r on paired boards based on action.

Exceptions are if TAG is expert LAGTAG playing lower while waiting for seat (ex: ninawilliams, ontherail15, Sean Snyder)