Live 20, 3 handed must move.

Button opens, SB folds. Button skews tight pre-flop though he has relaxed his standards a bit since we got short. I saw him show down T9o after opening twice which he would never open full. He make ridiculous folds regularly, especially to rivered cards that complete the obvious draws and tends to give too many free cards. He also gives away a lot with table talk (I know, lol live reads) regarding the strength of his hand.

I defend T4 of spades. Flop comes 752 one spade. I check and call. Turn comes 6 of spades. I check, he bets, I raise and he calls. River is an offsuit queen and I bet.

Thoughts?

When you called check-called the flop, did you have a plan for the rest of the hand? Would you have c/r'd any turn card, regardless of whether it improved you? Would you have have c/r'd if a 4 hit on the turn? A king? If you can answer those questions for yourself honestly, you also know how to play short and know how to play this hand, imo. But given how tight you say villain is, I'm betting all raggy flops 100% of the time when he's opened (even on the button), and am following through with a bet on the turn most times. I'd also like your c/r-bluff on the turn more had you taken the lead on the flop.


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Fine. xr flop is also fine.

I was thinking this. I've found that this game so rarely gets SH that almost unbridled aggression is the way to go. Obviously super player dependent, but 80% of the people who play this game either don't play SH or just choose not to adjust.

x/r flop and barrel off.

flop donk is fine too =P

It makes no difference if the table is 3handed or 9handed -- all that matters is their position (relative to the BTN). The fact you make this comment is a bit confusing.

Also, live reads are definitely a thing, and live players are extremely exploitable because of it.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think it's impossible for three different options to have the same ev. I'd either check call or check raise the flop.

Of course I had a plan I just didn't want to put my thoughts on it because they could be wrong and change people's responses. Also, against this villain, had I taken the lead on the flop I'm not sure he'd bet turn if checked to. Like I said, he is always looking for what beats him, not what can he beat. I was confident I could get him to fold unimproved broadways with this line and I thought there was a chance I might get him to fold small pairs but I'm unsure if this is bet suicide 3 handed though this is 100% the villain to try it against.

If you really know that he will fold unimproved broadway cards if you bet the flop, then by all means do that. I can't imagine that being the case but if so this is a great game.

I said I thought I could get him to fold broadways using the c/c, c/r line I took.

And yes, the must move was amazing and it fed to the best 20 game I've ever been in at CP.

actually, when 6 players fold to the button... the cards they have folded make it ~1-2% more likely btn has a stronger hand than average. =P #foldingRangesMatter #marginalAsFk

yea; dead cards make a difference. but not worth thinking about and adjusting for unless you're a wizard.

It's not impossible! In fact, here's the EV for all 3 lines:


EV flop donk = .40
EV flop check = .39
EV XR = .14
EV XC = .15
EV XF = 0

I would donk the flop >70% of the time here. Very sure that xr the flop with T4 is very poor, even with a bdfd... if we don't donk, xc imo. Many other hands prefer to xr + are suited better for it equity/playability wise. Donking + xr ranges are constructed completely differently.

xr bluffs ~ 98,86,64,43,34,36, tons of 2 overs + bdfd like T8, JT, Q9
^ a lot of these hands should also be donking the flop.

Just because a line is +EV (like XR the flop here with T4) doesn't mean we should take it. Often there are other lines with similar EV that play much better without how our ranges are constructed!

TL;DR: Either donk the flop, or XC


Edit: XR flop was not as bad EV wise as I thought~ However, Still very poor strategically imo

Vs a villain with the description "makes ridiculous folds regularly", I'm pretty happy to give him the opportunity to make a ridiculous fold right away even though x/r barrel off may not be the optimal line.

Then again, donking can serve the same purpose and costs less.

IME even hero folders don't fold to random donks after a 752 flop. He might fold A hi / K hi but hey, we can get those to call a flop xr and then fold. That's kinda cool.

I do agree that we should be xr liberally on the flop and this is kind of a nice hand to do it with.

I'm talking more about taking an exploitive line vs. an optimal line. Avoidthe9to5 posted the EV of each line and it's clear x/r flop isn't the best. But I think it's ok to occasionally take a lower EV line based on a read which is why I'm suggesting to x/r and barrel off vs this opponent. Vs Avoidthe9to5 I would take a different line.

I would be shocked given your description of villian if he puts in that many bets without an overpair or better flush draw. Have you previously seen him fold rivers when a card that is a blank hits river. Feels like he has pocket 10s or better, queen not really a scare card. Seems unlikely you won this pot and maybe trying to run him over every hand is a little spewy. Im interested in what actually happened.

Also, why I think this whole hand is really bad... You seem to be saying you have your opponent doing exactly what you want throughout the session, now you are going to show down 10 4 and wake him up to the fact you are playing atc and hoping to outplay him at will.
This will only result in him calling more often and playing back at you. When your opponent is constantly making a mistake, you should be re-inforcing their behavior, occasionally letting a pre flop raise go thru uncontested, showing some of yr stronger holdings and still taking away more than yr fair share of orphaned pots. Perception is reality and when you make it so obvious you are running him over you now have to showdown the best hand to win pots you were stealing.

I was definitely interested in seeing responses to my line vs. this specific villain. I will spoil results for those interested. Like I said, he makes bad folds. I've seen it many times and he likes to talk about and show them when he is right even when most of us would be snap calling he is proud when he makes hero folds.

I don't think you can compare the EV numbers in that way. The "EV XR" or "EV XC" figures are the EV of those actions given that our opponent has bet the flop. Thus those EVs are contingent on a new piece of information: our opponent has not checked the flop in position (which makes his range stronger). That is why they are lower than "EV flop donk" or "EV flop check." The EV of checking the flop with the intention of raising if our opponent bets is likely close to .39, which these figures suggest is the overall EV of checking.

Xr flop much better vs given opponent than vs optimal opponent. Agree that flop should not be xr vs expert.

be careful w\ overexploitation guys. If we overdo it and XR all these BDDraws vs this guy and he calls down (or we make a pair and go to showdown) we're very likely to induce adjustments from him.

The EV of XR should include the parlay of our opponent betting. There is no point in considering the EV of a xr from an opponent who doesn't bet, it is impossible. The check EV should include all possible outcomes (opp bets / opp checks back)

You can't just say that donking has EV of .4 and EV XR is .15, so checking planning to raise is worse than donking. They are not comparable in that way. You have to add in our EV when the flop is checked through which is positive. What we want to know is what is the EV of checking with the intention of raising 100%. That is not .14. Only then can we compare it to donking. To put it another way, you can't compare EV from two different points in the tree when making a decision about what to do at point A.

Oh, I see what angle you are taking here. The EV of (B/X) decisions are independent from the (XR/XC/XF); I agree with you. Don't forget that the EV of checking includes our XR XC + XF's.