60/120 game at the Commerce (4 bet cap). Stone Cold Animal opens utg, a passive fish who utg has on tilt cold calls utg +1. The SB 3 bets (Decent Player never out of line in this spot).

You have 7h8h in the BB. You......

Fold. Bad relative position, 8-high, etc.

Once you do fold, you'll probably flop a straight but don't be results oriented. Sounds like a good game; you should have plenty of profitable spots to play creative hands but I don't think cold-calling in this spot is one of them.

That said, it can't be too big a mistake to call because you should have better implied odds than normal given the read on the first two players in the pot and it's not like SB has you dominated badly unless he has 88 or AhKh. Your hand will do well vs. his overpair in an implied odds situation.

So yeah, I think it's close but it's a fold.

P.S. you're at the worst seat in the game. change plz

if "Stone Cold Animal" means he's going to cap it like 50% of the time then it's an easy fold.
4 ways for 4 bets with 78s is not my idea of a good time.

nothing wrong about calling 2bets with implied tilt odds. folding is not a mistake either but calling is more fun though

It's not fun for me. SB has a hand and then I have a drawing hand with a "stone cold animal" on my right, it's going to be more likely than not to be capped preflop and then expensive to draw.

the fact that sb 3bets from the sb and therefore should have a hand increases

a) the probability that utg will not 4bet (or is he just 4betting regardless of everything?) and
b) our implied odds

I call here. It would be closer without the fish coldcaller, but I'm pretty sure we have more than enough equity to see a flop.

after looking at stove, we have about 21% equity against their ranges. Not surprisingly, our equity does not change much when I tighten/loosen SB and/or UTG's range.

We are getting 10:2 on a call if it isn't capped and 13:3 when it is capped. If we assume that UTG will cap about the top 3% (AA,KK,AK), and his opening range is the top 12%, he'll be capping about 25% of the time. Assuming there is no postflop betting, our ev on a call would be about:

(10)*.21*.75 + (13)*.21*.25 + (-2)*.79*.75 + (-3)*.79*.25 = .48SB

Assuming my math is correct, this is way too much value to pass up. Of course we also need to consider postflop betting. We will sometimes be forced to give up some equity by folding the flop or turn, but that won't happen very often. Due to the pot size, we will almost always be getting odds to draw. Furthermore, we have excellent implied odds when we make 2pr+, and only a little RIO.

Edit: furthermore, even if the "stone cold animal" caps as much as 50% of his opening range, we still have about +.4SB in immediate ev. And if he caps 100% we still have +.36SB.

Edit2: haha, just looked at the results of the poll. Those results are also not surprising as I feel this is a spot where "tags" routinely leave money on the table and "fish" inadvertently play correct.

Except for...

Where are you coming up with this theory that we won't fold the flop or turn very often? You seem to live in a world where 87s hits the flop almost every time.

To be fair he meant the times we fold the flop will be times when we have very little equity so we aren't giving up much from the preflop equity. Not that I agree with his conclusion but that's what he's saying.

I does every time I don't want it to, hahahaha.......hahaha....haha.....err, sorry, I couldn't resist.

yep, that's exactly what I'm getting at. Why don't you agree with my conclusion? Do you think I'm looking at the preflop equity wrong? Do you think we get owned too often postflop? We will rarely be folding or check-folding the flop if we hit a gutshot or better... seems like this is an ideal spot to look for any excuse to enter since we have two poor opponents, one of which will spew and one of which will come along with weak hands, plus we can play pretty accurately against the Tag's range...

Keep in mind that .4SB in expectation is huge, so our opponents need to induce us to make a ton of mistakes postflop to overcome that..

Edit: btw, to anyone who disagrees with my logic, I basically attempted to copy the same calcs that Oink did in SSSH a few weeks back. I think he made a pretty good case for seeing a flop there and in the end I think the consensus is that its fine... Please let me know where I'm wrong if that's really the case.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...6&postcount=12

The conclusion I disagree with is that those flop folds won't cost us much equity. I think in this case it will because our bad relative position will make us less likely to peel flops with weaker draws. Also our position means reverse implied odds as we'll have to raise a lot of flops we catch a pair on because the pot is so big but we'll be a dog to the SB's range.

Edit/ I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here btw. .4 SB's is a big edge but it's important to note that our actual expectation will be much worse because of the factors I mentioned. This is important because we'll often face similar situations with slightly worse hands or a tighter SB range or whatever else.

"the fact that sb 3bets from the sb and therefore should have a hand increases a) the probability that utg will not 4bet (or is he just 4betting regardless of everything?)"

If I understand "stone cold animal," it means he's capping here more often than most other players and that he probably doesn't know or care what kind of player sb is. And he's going to be aggressive on subsequent streets when, if we're continuing, we're likely drawing.

Is "stone cold animal" that fat guy who's often rocking biker gear who table captains and fake-chuckles about how awful all these fish he's surrounded with obviously play but oh it is to laugh! and is about 75% to cap every hand he opens with if it's three-bet back to him? He's a lark.

gosh i would certainly call here. you are gonna make a lot of money when you catch. Not sure about this, but i was thinking having the tight player driving the action is good cuz it means ppl will be less likely to pound on the pot with the smaller pairs (so hopefully you'll be able to draw cheaper).