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2023-2024 NC/LC THREAD 2023-2024 NC/LC THREAD

05-12-2024 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope
Its not the occasional seat change that is the bother.

It is when a seat opens up to the left of the fish and 5 people instantly start fighting for it.

Or, this used to happen at CAZ. A new game would start and the fish would lock up the 5 seat. The 6, 7, 8, and 9 would be locked up next and the whole other side of the table is open.
I've never seen anything like either of those.
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05-13-2024 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight
How would you attempt to track it for live play? By # of BvB hands and then express it as BB/100? That would prob be easier to track than I initially thought. Maybe even easier than what I’ve been doing lol.
What is your goal with this? Feel like the biggest ev in Live game is to play MW well then BB defend vs various open...so on. Bvb probably doesn't happen as often unless you in a really sh.itty game. But if you planning on playing higher stake w tougher opponent or time rake then go for it. You could practice on bovada for cheaper rake too with hole card shown after 24 hour.

Also I personally would avoid Mtt unless you are elite. Every year players are getting better and the biggest edge is being able to make exploitative play depending on different opponent tendency. You can skim through all the final table of Mtt online https://www.youtube.com/@KalipokerTV . Notice elite player are able to make specific read and make plays that a lot of mid tier think it auto ship. Even some of the nl/plo players are better than most at lhe mtt. The +ev isn't evenly distribute once you get to the final table unless you can play short hand really well and head up.

Last edited by DonJuan; 05-13-2024 at 08:11 PM.
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05-14-2024 , 07:32 PM
There’s no real goal. I posted about my motivations earlier in this thread. I figured it would increase my hourly to not chop but there were other factors.

I won’t pretend like I’m elite at mtt by any stretch but my results in them are good and I haven’t fallen back to earth enough for me to think I’m flushing money by playing them. Also, not like I’m out here stagnant and not trying to get better at them. I posted my lifetime results on my blog earlier this year but I’ll copy and paste here.

Updated Lifetime ROIs:

Overall: 35%
Overall (excluding WSOP Main Events): 61%
WSOP: -3%
WSOP (excluding Main Event): 40%
NLH: 74%
NLH (excluding WSOP Main Event): 160%
HORSE: 61%
Omaha 8/B: 27%
Limit Hold’em: -27%
All Other Mixed Games: -46%

I have two WSOP final tables. I have 8 top 32 finishes in six different variants at WSOP. I have multiple titles in non-WSOP events. I’m 0-4 on cashing the WSOP Main Event and I think it’s important to filter out the Main from my results because it’s almost 16x times my ABI in everything else. I’m a cash game pro, so it’s not like this is a massive sample, but I have plenty of great results in the 350 or so live mtt I’ve played over the last decade or so. I do think the truly elite players are on an entirely different level and I’ve felt the skill difference when I’ve played with them but I feel comfortable battling with them in the limit fields. Playing with elite big bet players is another story though. I cannot hang with them. Fortunately, the NL events I target are full of weak and average players.

Last edited by TheDarkKnight; 05-14-2024 at 07:37 PM.
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Yesterday , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyHumongous
You need to find some way to have money make money for you when you're not working or gambling, otherwise you'll work the rest of your life (to paraphrase Warren Buffett). Can you put away $10k per year into an S&P ETF?
I'm not a fan of most publicly traded stocks. Some are celebrating dow all time high but when priced in gold, the index is lower than it was when it peaked in 1929.
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Yesterday , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
I'm not a fan of most publicly traded stocks. Some are celebrating dow all time high but when priced in gold, the index is lower than it was when it peaked in 1929.
this makes absolutely no sense. rate of return is 10% per year on investments in s&p 500. Compare the price of gold from 1929 to now.

Like I’m sorry but gold is a horrible investment for pure suckers. The only people making money on gold are jewelers and gold stores that charge you a percent off of market price and resell off market price.
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Yesterday , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
this makes absolutely no sense. rate of return is 10% per year on investments in s&p 500. Compare the price of gold from 1929 to now.

Like I’m sorry but gold is a horrible investment for pure suckers. The only people making money on gold are jewelers and gold stores that charge you a percent off of market price and resell off market price.
I wasn't trying to make an argument for gold as an investment, I was pointing out what a complete joke the US economy has been as inflation has been created to appear like real economic growth over the past century when, in fact, the 30 largest companies are worth less gold than the 30 largest companies a century ago. The only reason the American standard of living has been high has been the perpetual trade deficit and foolish decision of foreigners to exchange real goods for debt that will never be repaid.

If I wanted to make a case for gold as an investment, I'd point out it will be the default safe haven once the legions figure out the treasury market they consider a safe haven is nothing but the unsecured promises of governments and companies on the verge of insolvency with no ability or willingness to reverse their ever-expanding need for debt.
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Yesterday , 07:22 PM
You might or might not have a point, but gold is not the right yardstick for the job, its price being, *ahem*, unstable.
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Yesterday , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
You might or might not have a point, but gold is not the right yardstick for the job, its price being, *ahem*, unstable.
I suppose you're talking about the short term instability when priced in dollars (which, I believe, is still less than any other asset aside from other fiat currencies that are essentially dollar derivatives due to the dollar's global reserve status), but in the long run gold is more stable than the dollar if you consider the same amount of gold can buy not only the same stock index but many other items that have risen in dollar price as the dollar's purchasing power has eroded over the past century.
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Yesterday , 10:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETzvS2g8LC4

btw there are splits and dividend with stock holding. Look up coke stock price if someone buy it in 1929 and past it down.

Last edited by DonJuan; Yesterday at 10:06 PM.
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Yesterday , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
I wasn't trying to make an argument for gold as an investment, I was pointing out what a complete joke the US economy has been as inflation has been created to appear like real economic growth over the past century when, in fact, the 30 largest companies are worth less gold than the 30 largest companies a century ago. The only reason the American standard of living has been high has been the perpetual trade deficit and foolish decision of foreigners to exchange real goods for debt that will never be repaid.

If I wanted to make a case for gold as an investment, I'd point out it will be the default safe haven once the legions figure out the treasury market they consider a safe haven is nothing but the unsecured promises of governments and companies on the verge of insolvency with no ability or willingness to reverse their ever-expanding need for debt.
I've been saying this for years, whenever people say the US needs to fix its trade deficit. The trade deficit is amazing! It allows Americans to get lots of cool stuff, in return for pieces of paper. Or nowadays, not even that, just bytes in a computer. I hope that continues to happen for at least as long as I'm alive.
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Today , 12:14 AM
Many hope the same but their hope won't prevent a credit collapse.
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Today , 02:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
this makes absolutely no sense. rate of return is 10% per year on investments in s&p 500. Compare the price of gold from 1929 to now.

Like I’m sorry but gold is a horrible investment for pure suckers. The only people making money on gold are jewelers and gold stores that charge you a percent off of market price and resell off market price.
Doesn’t make much sense to speak of gold starting from 1929….
Having a fix price of 35$ from 1929 till around 1968.
At least start from 1971 shrug .
The most horrible investment isn’t gold resting under the mattress, it’s US dollars resting under the mattress .
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Today , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
I wasn't trying to make an argument for gold as an investment, I was pointing out what a complete joke the US economy has been as inflation has been created to appear like real economic growth over the past century when, in fact, the 30 largest companies are worth less gold than the 30 largest companies a century ago. The only reason the American standard of living has been high has been the perpetual trade deficit and foolish decision of foreigners to exchange real goods for debt that will never be repaid.

If I wanted to make a case for gold as an investment, I'd point out it will be the default safe haven once the legions figure out the treasury market they consider a safe haven is nothing but the unsecured promises of governments and companies on the verge of insolvency with no ability or willingness to reverse their ever-expanding need for debt.
even if I just assume what you are saying is true about the 30 largest companies for the sake of argument, why are we using a stat like that to measure whether not it’s better to invest in stocks or gold? Throughout all the changes to monetary policy, including ending the gold standard, the stock market still has performed far better than gold as an investment vehicle, and this is inflation adjusted.

1920s wasn’t even close to the peak for American economy and hegemony. For sure we are no longer the undisputed top dog economically, but there is no reason for global confidence in the American economy to backslide just because of inflation, which by the way all countries are experiencing and America has managed to have relatively less inflation compared to other countries.

But getting back to why your company size comparison is wrong (assuming this is even correct), there could just be a larger pie with less top players. However I would ask where you are getting your data from because given that the total global economy is way up I find your claims are hard to believe.
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Today , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
even if I just assume what you are saying is true about the 30 largest companies for the sake of argument, why are we using a stat like that to measure whether not it’s better to invest in stocks or gold?
We're not, as I mentioned in my prior first paragraph.

Quote:
However I would ask where you are getting your data from because given that the total global economy is way up I find your claims are hard to believe.
In 1929, an ounce of gold was worth $20.63 when the Dow peaked at 381 (18.5oz). As I write this, gold is 2,360/oz while the dow sits at 39,600 (16.75oz).
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Today , 11:02 AM
I’ve always preferred myrrh
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Today , 11:40 AM
Well it good to know that if i ever sucks at lhe. I will be ok competing in the real world. My financial understand is decent compare to some.

Last edited by DonJuan; Today at 11:44 AM. Reason: Or maybe i am winning at lhe due to pop of competition
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Today , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
In 1929, an ounce of gold was worth $20.63 when the Dow peaked at 381 (18.5oz). As I write this, gold is 2,360/oz while the dow sits at 39,600 (16.75oz).
are you saying you don’t invest any money in the stock market whatsoever?

Like I really can’t make heads or tails of what this is supposed to mean. For me I just look at what the RoR is going to be between investing a dollar in gold vs the stock market and I’m pretty sure by that comparison the stock market is doing way better.

I mean if you have some reason to suspect total market collapse, sure. I just don’t have any reason to expect that, at least not for the reasons you gave. The dollar representing an instrument of debt is a pretty stupid argument since all currencies nowadays are fiat. It’s just a better way to run an economy than the gold standard.

Last edited by checkraisdraw; Today at 12:30 PM.
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Today , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
are you saying you don’t invest any money in the stock market whatsoever?
I own some stocks in things like energy, mining, and emerging markets. My allocation is about fifty percent stocks, twenty percent gold, twenty percent silver, and ten percent platinum/palladium/collectibles. This excludes cash which I hold for operating capital rather than as an investment.
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