2018 NC/LC THREAD - are we ever going to get a title? - Page 8 - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

This forum is the most analytical of the ones I follow. Anyone have thoughts on this?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-infernal-box/

AA or AKs would be my two obvious guesses, but the math (or analytics, or empirics) to prove it doesn't come as easily.

I suspect it is not as obvious, and would also consider things like JTs (which can make a lot of straight flushes) or A8s (which could make a lot of nut flushes plus some one-card straight flushes).

I don't usually do Puzzlers that require computer work but I may give this one a shot later today.

04-13-2018 , 11:53 AM

#178

dinesh

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,406

(PP: ha! I figured, but wrote it as gently as possible, just in case.)

I originally thought JTs too, but while it can make 4 SFs (compared to 1 for AKs), it also makes many fewer nut flushes. Of course it can also make 4 nut straights, compared to 1.

I feel like AKs would be better than A8s (and also ATs, AJs, and AQs) because its full houses are more likely to be nuts, but again, that's just gut feel.

04-13-2018 , 12:44 PM

#179

Munga30

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,699

Guessing ATs. Need a T or 5 in the 7 cards to make a straight and ... Does T dominate a 5 for the purposes of this puzzle? I think it does.

Trup Queens is the worst possible nuts, ldo.

04-13-2018 , 12:57 PM

#180

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

This would be a fun problem to practice coding skills on. But just off top of my head it seems to me it must be either JTs or AKs. It cannot be a pair, AA only makes the nuts as quads or top set on dry boards, not many combos at all. So the question I’m trying to estimate is how easy is it to get 3-5 of one suit on the board vs 3 specific ranks (for all the straight combos). My instinct is a lot of the straight combos get discounted after a flush draw hits and then there are some full House spots where the higher ranks are better. So I’ll stick with AKs. I’d be shocked if it is a hand other than one of those two.

04-13-2018 , 12:58 PM

#181

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munga30

Guessing ATs. Need a T or 5 in the 7 cards to make a straight and ... Does T dominate a 5 for the purposes of this puzzle? I think it does.

Trup Queens is the worst possible nuts, ldo.

Any time the Ten makes a one card straight it’s not the nuts. So AT is roughly equal to AK except for full house dominance.

04-13-2018 , 01:39 PM

#182

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

The only reason then to have JTs is to have the nuts on 3 or 4 flush boards where you have a straight flush. Any other flush is worthless. So outside of nut straights, it has very little equity. Slightly less full house equity than AKs along with less quad equity (chances of JJJQQ board where you don't have the nuts), and much less flush equity due to only straight flushes giving you the nuts.

So I lean towards AKs because of that.

04-13-2018 , 02:06 PM

#183

GiantBuddha

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,909

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

AA can also make the nuts on two suits of non-straight-flush 4-flush boards. But I'd still also lean towards AKs.

04-13-2018 , 03:46 PM

#184

SetofJacks

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,378

What about KQs?

You don't get as many nut flushes and you worsen your full house dominance, but double your nut straights.

04-13-2018 , 04:01 PM

#185

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

It may be offsuit because there are 3x as many offsuit combos than suited, so AKo will make more nut straights than AKs.

I've got a short list of AKs-JTs AXs AA-TT AKo and I'm just straight up tallying the number of each by final hand type.

04-13-2018 , 04:02 PM

#186

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

That would be dirty if they play it like that and are taking all combos and not just saying AhKh and running a sim.

04-13-2018 , 04:54 PM

#187

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,407

Very interesting question. My first thought was JTs, but the fact that it's suited is almost meaningless. I'm not sure if this matters as much as the straight potential.

Kind of hard to figure out as lots of different hands can make the nuts if you consider suits and even more when only one card is needed to make the nuts.

And yeah, they should be considering all 1326 hands individually and probably end up with a four way tie for some suited hand. Unless the sim proves that spades are luckier than clubs.

04-13-2018 , 05:40 PM

#188

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

That would be useful to know.

There are a limited amount of possible boards. Just name all the combos that make the nuts on each board, and sum.

04-13-2018 , 05:42 PM

#189

SetofJacks

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,378

Btw the answer is ATs because it blocks lots of straight flushes.

04-13-2018 , 05:43 PM

#190

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

Do you know that or are guessing that?

04-13-2018 , 09:34 PM

#191

chillrob

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 20,871

From the way the question is worded, I doubt having blockers to a bigger hand would count for anything. It is ambiguous though.

04-13-2018 , 10:04 PM

#192

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

It means there are less straight flushes possible when a flush is on board...

04-14-2018 , 12:25 AM

#193

SetofJacks

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,378

Quote:

Originally Posted by chillrob

From the way the question is worded, I doubt having blockers to a bigger hand would count for anything. It is ambiguous though.

I found a 2+2 thread from years ago on this exact topic, that was the conclusion they reached. I'll update when I find the thread.

04-14-2018 , 12:30 AM

#194

SetofJacks

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,378

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...63/index2.html

See post 46

04-14-2018 , 02:11 AM

#195

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

Oh man that makes sense

04-14-2018 , 03:53 AM

#196

that_pope

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,226

Thats what I get for trusting you DD.

04-14-2018 , 11:14 AM

#197

maka2184

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,537

Quote:

Originally Posted by that_pope

Thats what I get for trusting you DD.

Tldr except JT >

Regardless thank you very much from the bottom of my heart DeathDonkey / Chris!

Concepts you've engrained in me from your 3 hour coaching ensured I can be a break even player as a prop on Cereus.

Sans HUHU online marathon session until they quit challenge or I bust on Bovada, thanks to you I have managed to still be able to play 20/40 games without busting despite drinking excessively at times lol

Thanks again DeathDonkey, your coaching changed my life although I rarely play poker anymore

04-15-2018 , 07:45 AM

#198

DonJuan

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,540

Lol sick burn by Jdalla on his mix course. Was watching the preview video and around 6 mins "we going to skip right over limit hold em cause no body needs that..."

I feel like my life has been a waste why try to even improve on my games when limit doesn't even get any respect.

Last edited by DonJuan; 04-15-2018 at 07:50 AM.

04-15-2018 , 05:26 PM

#199

quantph

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,154

Playing 5/10 NL at National Harbor cause I can't get into the 60 LHE game. Which part of "I play limited Texas hold'em, I never fold" do these people not understand?