I’d agree except for there are quite a few possibilities. Most important is inclusion of jackpots and promos. If he’s paying 6+1 I’d assume he also gets benefit of counting promo as winnings. There are 4-8 games I could prob beat for close to $20 hour so if he were to handpick optimal times and conditions and was a decent player overall he could likely be a big favorite.

Like if a very good NL player played 4-8 every Sunday during football pools and fort McDowell aces cracked promos he would be a huge favorite to win

If every session of a break-even player was 30 minutes, I think he would have significantly more losing sessions than winning sessions.

maybe not necessarily, if he was trying to have a winning session.

It's a lot easier to force a short hit and run in a nitfest versus a "6 ways to the flop" fest that you'd find in live 4/8. ABC play is basically mandatory

Something thats common in low limit is someone in ep or lp limps, folds to the blinds, then a blind raises and they just chop it up under the table to avoid a flop and full drop.

Seems like you're a favorite over just about any interval, and your edge increases with the length of the interval. So just negotiate the longest interval possible, even though in your heart of hearts you're willing to take anything.

I think how much effort your opponent puts into winning the bet is far more important than the drop (until you get out to a few hundred hours).

Like if he's allowed to sit out for the remainder of his term, he can just play whatever and as soon as he's up in money he runs out the clock.

Also your edge takes a quantum jump upward below the time it takes to play 1 orbit.

Also if he's a good NL player and competes with you in NL you can exile him to 4/8 LHE for some percentage of your marginal NL winnings.

Just found the perfect beer for myself!

i'm super confused here. was on hold on a call and decided to play some cepheus. check out this insanity:

Hand #4 of 100 dealt by uhbw, uhbw pays SB (5), Cepheus pays BB (10)
uhbw calls and raises (#1 of 3) A7o
Cepheus calls (10) Js3s
4♠8♥A♣ are revealed.
Cepheus checks
uhbw bets
Cepheus calls (10)
3♦ is revealed.
Cepheus checks
uhbw bets
Cepheus calls (20)
9♠ is revealed.
Cepheus checks
uhbw bets
Cepheus calls (20)
uhbw shows pair of aces with nine, eight, and seven
Cepheus shows pair of threes with ace, jack, and nine
uhbw wins 140, bringing their balance to 45

flop call logic? i can't see how that's possibly in his range?

Played around on this UHBW. Looks like the bot continues 100% on this flop and check raises 18% of the time with the back door outs as a bluff. When I switch the 4s to the 4h it moves it to a 100% fold. If I change the Ac to a Kc it again continues 100%, check raising 15% of the time as a bluff.

Interestingly, the bot also check raises Ks3s on this flop 100% of the time, which I would typically just call with thinking K high is good against your 97 suited. Is Cepheus raising K high for value?!

I always wonder if I'm being too much of a station w/ my high card based hands HUHU, then I see Cepheus go.

K3s is not a hand you really want to call 3 times with. Yes, better to raise for thin value! Can always slow down on turn or river, and win UI. Can get you to showdown cheaper; can also get some FE. if you get raised back, easy fold UI since you're at the bottom of your value range.

Thanks Jlot. This bot does some crazy shyt. No way a human can keep those %s going during a match.

Uh Jlot noted frequency by Cepheus already.

However, in my opinion, isn't Ceoheus calling flop strictly because there are two backdoor outs (flush and straight)?

The straight one is dirty but the flush one is clean and there are some pair outs and J high being best hand on low frequency/probability.

Not sure how the GTO on it works but in general, even if villain/Cepheus is peeling flop light, doing it on a A84 rainbow still indicates higher probability of a stronger hand range (at least in my view if I was HERO), and in turn more run outs to potentially bluff.

Or at the very least that's how I used to think as HERO but that may be flawed since I haven't HUHU in awhile after cashing out and putting money in Bovada started to get painful.

Off topic but where the duck did Elo go???

Please tell me you are still not banned again Elo...

Praying you or Unguarded will one day PM me so you can crush me at 20/40 half kill game at Hammond Horsehoe or bird you crush the 50/100, PLO, or NL game which you are expert at while you tilt the lights out of the fish tanks at Horshoe

I haven't gone back to Hammond in a good 6 months or even played poker because work has been busy. However, got my hefty bonus now so would consider playijng ONLY if I get to meet the great Dr. Elo or Unguarded.

Either of you guys (Elo or Unguarded) please PM me if you guys goto Hammond Horseshoe. Softest room in USA sans Commerce or Pottawatami in Milwaukee.

Note: I'm TAG fish so either of you would crush me if you play 20/40.

Not re-banned yet!

I was very close to going up there yesterday/today for the 1650 MTT but didn't. Feel free to stake me for any game

Lol Elo I'm too stingy to stake people.

However, not possible to lose money at 20/40 half kill game at Horseshoe game if you play 8pm - 8am since

1. Players are terrible on hour 8+, intoxicated, card dead, or gets bored

2. Live players are horrendous short handed while you are clearly expert via past results online

3. Guys from 50/100, big NL and big PLO come to game after game breaks,or while waiting for seat.

I mean if you come with 50 Big Bet stack for 20/40, can't imagine you busting that unless you tilt hard which I understand you do but players at Horseshoe are garbage TAG Fish who are Tight Passive or LoosePassive terrible fish which you will destroy.

I sit with 1500 and rarely bust that or come close to having a losing session at least in last 20 - 30 sessions within last 2 years because

1. I run good and play mostly Nit TAG
2. Players are horrendous

Even my best friend whose probably similar to you of playing LAGTAG with extreme level of aggression when required by play history/opponent/meta rarely goes below being down 50 Big bets, although he brings 100 Big bets just in case he runs bad which has happened once HUHU live at Horseshoe around 6am but I coached him his flaw per birding (since I already cashed out 2 hours prior up x0 big bets, don't remember amount).

the backdoors. i'm pretty sure if he didn't have spades he would've folded

Hand of the day.

20/40, I am in big blind with KK.

UTG+1, extremely aggressive/spewy lady raises, MP, CO, Button, SB call I threebet, she 4 bets, all call.

Flop is QT4. I bet, she raises, 3 callers, and I call.

Turn is 5. I check, she bets, two callers, I c/r, lady and all calll.

River Q. Checked to MP, he bets, I cry call and lady calls.

MP shows QJ, lady flashes a Q and mucks.

Yeah, it was a good game.

Subscribing

Does anyone know of an odds calculator/simulator that allows me to plug in ranges/random cards to a hand for stud high low regular? Troutulator and PPT do not cover high low regular and either twodimes does not allow for random cards or I don't know how to do it. I am trying to work on some 3rd-5th street situations and don't know how to do the work myself or fudge simulations like I can with A-5 draw or 2-7 razz because high low regular is actually a completely different game than 8 or better instead of a slight variation of it.

This prolly has flaws I'm not recognizing, but enter the cards in ppt, run it once for razz and again for stud hi, take the average of the two equities.

Here's my favorite hand of 2018 so far.

A-5 Razz with a bunch of irrelevant dead high cards, and the low cards leading up to the bring in are 7, 8, 6

The 2nd most conservative player in the game completes the 7, the most conservative player in the game flats the 8, and I 2bet with 6(42)

4th
V1: 74
V2: 8J
Me: 63(42)

I bet they call

5th
V1: 74J
V2: 8J9
Me. 636(42)

V1 checks, V2 bets, I raise, V1 folds, V2 calls

6th
V2: 8J94
Me: 6364(42)

V2 check calls.

And that concludes my favorite hand of 2018

Your image precedes you. “Sean definitely has the case 4 in the hole”