Hero is a bad semi-reg in this game with aspirations to transition to full time poker in the next 3 years. Likely perceived as TAG fish by the regs in this game.

Villain 1 in MP has been in the game for less than an orbit. He sat down with $500.

Villain 2 on BN is a TAG reg, very agg when in position, have not seen him out of line often.


OTTH


Hero open AQss UTG, MP, BN call.

Flop: 267sdd (pot: 3.5BB)

Hero continues, MP raise, BN & Hero call.

Turn: Ac (pot: 6.5BB)

Hero checks, MP bets, BN raises, Hero & MP call.

River: Ad (pot: 12.5BB)

Hero checks, MP bet, BN fold, Hero calls.


Particularly curious about the turn action. I checked with the intention of a c/r to get value mostly from flush draws, 88+, and the occasional AJ, AT. However, I’m not sure what worse hands continue if I 3 bet Here?

I think you have to start by asking yourself what the aggressive TAG on the button can have that cold calls both PF and flop before deciding what to do on the turn.

I would lead the turn - the Ac is just about the best card in the deck for our range and it's a bad one for the two Villains. If raised, I'd just call down. The Ad completing the flush draw is a really interesting river. If we assume we lead the turn and call the raise, I'm not sure how I'd handle this river. I think I'd check / call with 2 other players still in the pot. We could certainly be up against a small set, combo flush/straight draws or maybe even Ax two pair (less likely after river A).

I don't see any logical inconsistencies in the hand as played, but I'd check the flop.

Your range is pretty capped once you c/c the flop and your hand looks a lot like what it is. Smart villains will check behind the turn with worse and you’ll get 3 bet by better when you c/r. I like lead > check/call turn

Why would you check the flop?

Because I think the ev of (flop check through, check call for one, check call for two) is higher than betting. This is mostly due to the size of the investment(checking and calling is clearly a smaller investment than betting and calling imo). Since we don't have a hand yet and we're way out of position in a three way pot(the severity of the situation is exemplified by the inability to get value for a pretty strong hand on the turn and river), we're basically charging ourselves a more expensive price to draw than we would pay if we had checked.

How often do you think you win a showdown unimproved if you bet the flop?

How often do you think you win a showdown unimproved if you check the flop?

What do your flop turn and river check call ranges look like without hands such as AQ unimproved?

I like the flop bet for value. There are hands which might prefer to check / call here in our range, like KQ or QJ. AQ is often the best hand here.

This is interesting because I wouldn't think twice about c betting here. I think we need more information regarding what does bad semi reg mean. How might this read impact the agro TAG's pre flop decision? How loose are the players to the left of the TAG?

I think you ask good questions....I would defer to you regarding mathematical based decisions. However, I would think you would want some Ace high hands in your C betting range here and this seems to be a great spot to continue.

I would add....How much does c betting and perhaps betting the turn improve our chances of winning this hand?

How many streets of value should we expect to get UIP?

How will checking impact possible folding mistakes?

[QUOTE=mongidig;54637985] Well clearly the first coldcall is wrong by mp, but he still has lots of equity assuming he plays somewhat logically preflop. This opens the door for button to play lots of now strong drawing hands correctly.
I don't follow the logic behind wanting Ace high no draw hands in my cbetting range. If a hand is a value bet, the only condition is that betting is more profitable than checking, and this condition is dependent on unimproved showdown value and draw value.
I think it decreases the probability of us winning the hand.
Just the flop imo.
checking is always profitable relative to folding, betting is not. Your question hints that you think it's harder to play the turn and river after checking the flop, but I think that the opposite is true. More specifically, I think the decisions after checking the flop, if considered as a whole, are more profitable(these decision trees begin with zero investment vs widest possible ranges given preflop action) than the decisions after betting the flop(minimum 1 small bet invested vs now stronger ranges).

I believe I often have the best hand on this flop, and can charge straight and flush draws that will continue, while maintaining my range advantage going to the turn.

When BN cold calls, I have a good price to close the action and make a turn decision with this hand IMO.

I don’t see any way to win the pot when I give up the lead OOP, and it just seems like I’d be giving too much equity to have to fold a hand that’s sometimes ahead, and will improve on many turns when behind.

do you see how this is a bit inconsistent?

Flush and straight draws are basically a coin flip vs AQ here because of pair outs and have the option to put in big action on future streets, which cut into your flop bet profits. Considering your positional disadvantage, I don't think there's quite the range advantage on the flop that you do. Maybe in a raw equity sense, but I wouldn't expect much range vs range vs range pot distribution asymmetry. Also, it's three handed, range advantage isn't as powerful when out of position vs two players that (apparently due to the way the hand played out) are not afraid to put in action vs your (supposedly) strong range on the flop.

I appreciate the insight, and I can see the merit to checking here, and waiting for more profitable spots. After playing with some ranges, the equity distribution on the flop is pretty equal.

Villian ended up showing down 8c8d.

Super standard except for the river. I suspect this was no limit though.