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Old 10-08-2018, 03:36 AM   #1
grimorum
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$200 Aces Cracked Promotion

I did some research and came to a conclusion that house would on average pay me 38 cents for every hand. Please let me know if my estimates are realistic.

AA = 1/221 Hands
AA cracked = about 50% for 4-5 players calling pre-flop
Estimate a loss of $30 to see the showdown

Basically, $170 for every 442 hands, so $0.38 profit per hand.
Unfortunately, this is a 4/8 game, so I have to invest $12 minimum every 6-9 hands.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:08 PM   #2
vlad fightmaster
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

I feel like you probably won't be losing with aces 50% of the time. We can use that if you want though.

Let's say aces are cracked every 500 hands or so. Should take about 12-15 hours to get in that many hands. Comes out to ~$13-17 hourly, which is close to a 2 BB an hour average, which is really really good. Good enough that you should probably play aces super super passively to maximize the chances they get cracked, further increasing the hourly it makes.

Depends on the drop though for how valuable the game is.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:56 PM   #3
Biggle10
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

Quote:
Originally Posted by grimorum View Post
this is a 4/8 game, so I have to invest $12 minimum every 6-9 hands.
Were you trying to figure out if you could be profitable by never playing any hand other than AA? Your opponents have to pay blinds too. Aces cracked is a neutral value promotion. You pay into it somehow (whether its a promo drop or they just take it out of the rake) and have an equal chance as anyone else to win it.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:13 PM   #4
callipygian
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

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Originally Posted by Biggle10 View Post
Aces cracked is a neutral value promotion. You pay into it somehow (whether its a promo drop or they just take it out of the rake) and have an equal chance as anyone else to win it.
No, because they could have a promo drop 24/7 but only pay out at select times. Those who play during those times could end up making money at the expense of everyone who plays outside of those windows.

The style of the analysis is more or less correct, try to figure out how often your aces get cracked and how much that adds to your winrate.

The specific numbers are pretty suspect, as is the strategy of playing for the promotion.
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Old 10-08-2018, 07:06 PM   #5
Biggle10
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
No, because they could have a promo drop 24/7 but only pay out at select times. Those who play during those times could end up making money at the expense of everyone who plays outside of those windows.
Point taken.
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Old 10-17-2018, 01:54 AM   #6
stinkypete
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

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Originally Posted by vlad fightmaster View Post
Good enough that you should probably play aces super super passively to maximize the chances they get cracked
you should limp/reraise from every position pre-flop
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Old 10-18-2018, 04:33 PM   #7
jdr0317
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

I think at 4/8, we should just raise it up from EP like always. People just call us. We still want to build a pot for the times we do win.

The interesting decision is if, say, someone raises EP and you're next to act. I'd say that we should be cold calling. The value of AA is absurdly massive; you still net out at +20 BB when you invest 5 into the pot and lose. So we actually kind of want them to get cracked, but want to play a massive pot for the times they don't.

It might be possible to beat this 4/8 game if you play like a hyper nit only at promo times, and play like 99+/AQs+/AKo. The promo is really juicy for the stakes.
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Old 10-19-2018, 07:29 PM   #8
Abbaddabba
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Re: $200 Aces Cracked Promotion

2 bets 2 ways vs 1 bet 3 ways shows only a $1 difference in value (at 4/8 not including dead money) whereas reducing your equity from roughly 80% to 65% increases your promo equity by $30. If raising or betting makes even one person fold half the time it’s a big mistake.
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